华尔街资管公司CEO公开持仓：押注纳指和BTC，「中间地带」才是最差选择

Organized & Compiled: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Anthony Pompliano, Founder & CEO of Professional Capital Management

Host: John Pompliano, Associate at Pomp Investments

Podcast Source: Anthony Pompliano

Original Title: I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio…

Air Date: June 24, 2026

Key Takeaways

Anthony Pompliano and John Pompliano reunite for this episode to deeply dissect the brutal sell-off of the Magnificent 7, the widespread panic over AI capital expenditure (CapEx), and why the underlying inflation data is actually much safer and more controlled than sensationalist media headlines suggest.

The guest is Anthony Pompliano, Founder & CEO of Professional Capital Management, a long-time active figure in the crypto investment space. His podcast is one of the most listened-to financial podcasts in North America.

Additionally, we will fully review Anthony’s current investment portfolio, offering an exclusive look into the real political chess game behind new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's interest rate decisions. We will also deeply deconstruct why Bitcoin's "high volatility" is not a risk, but rather its most core ultimate advantage in the long-term journey towards the next decade.

Highlights & Key Quotes

The Real Logic Behind the MAG 7 Pullback

• "The core reason MAG 7 is being sold off is that they are essentially long-duration assets, making them very sensitive to inflation."
• "For the MAG 7, these AI companies aren't going to suddenly blow up or go to zero."
• "If inflation comes down in Q3 and Q4, valuation multiples for the MAG 7 will likely re-expand."
• "Google is now cheaper than Apple in terms of valuation, yet it grows faster. Why? The core reason is market concern over AI CapEx. This actually creates a great opportunity to buy some of the world's best companies at lower valuations."
• "Many value investors have underperformed for years because they are too fixated on using past frameworks to judge today's businesses. You should respect history, but you can't just point at old data and say 'these companies are too expensive' for 15 straight years."
• "A likely scenario is a company says it will spend $10 billion on CapEx over the next two years, but the actual spending ends up being $6 billion. $6 billion is still a huge number, but it's 40% less than the market feared. The market is overly fixated on the inflation narrative, and I think it's mispriced."

Repricing AI CapEx and ROI

• "The real problem right now is Token cost. Go talk to a bunch of CEOs, and everyone says the same thing: We're spending way too much on Tokens, and we have no idea where the ROI is."
• "Everyone is now shifting towards the same goal: using fewer Tokens to get the same output."
• "What is the bottleneck limiting the spread of this technology? Power, data centers, chips."
• "I recently saw news about a company moving employee hours to 1 AM to 10 AM. One reason is they believe calling models during this time is cheaper, system load is lower, and answers are more accurate."

Investment Approach: Avoiding the Middle Ground

• "If you generalize investment approaches, I think there are roughly two paths. The first is buying large-cap indices; investing in broad market indices is a great strategy. The second is investing in highly asymmetric opportunities. I think the worst is the middle ground. You shouldn't allocate money to mid-sized companies with only moderate growth and mediocre return profiles."
• "The two most interesting technologies in the world today are Bitcoin and AI."
• "I hold Tesla. I believe if Elon forms a monopoly in humanoid robots and autonomous driving, that will be incredibly valuable."
• "Once he can give hardware this capability using AI, machine learning, and computer vision, he effectively controls the embodied entry point for 'Physical AI,' and I think that will be extremely valuable."
• "What exposures do I want? I will hold some cash long-term, and I will hold Bitcoin."
• "Anduril's model is to let startups achieve technological breakthroughs first. Once the tech is validated, Anduril acquires these drone companies. It's very good at M&A and has a strong business development team to quickly commercialize acquired tech. In other words, it's a platform that buys technology and then commercializes it."

His Actual Investment Portfolio

• "In private markets, I hold many software AI companies like Replit, Lovable, and Micro One, which are very strong in their respective verticals. In public markets, I'm more concentrated on Physical AI and robotics."
• "Whether it's public or private, software or hardware, I have a relatively complete set of AI exposure."
• "I don't hold Tesla for the cars; I hold it because I believe if Elon forms a monopoly in humanoid robots and autonomous driving, it will be extremely valuable."
• "He will eventually merge SpaceX and Tesla, and it will likely happen before 2030. Once that happens, he will consolidate his most important projects into a giant conglomerate."

Bitcoin Enters a New Phase

• "Unhappiness is essentially the gap between expectations and reality. So you can't set unrealistic expectations for Bitcoin. If you set your expectation at 25% to 30% annual returns, and it does better, you'll be pleasantly surprised."
• "Governments will keep printing money. Bitcoin's core investment thesis hasn't been broken. The change is that it's now in a different stage of the game."
• "Bitcoin used to be like playing high school basketball, where you were one of the few standout players. Now it's more like college basketball. All players are stronger, the gap isn't as extreme, but the quality of the game is higher."
• "Retail is usually more emotional; institutions are usually less so. I know sentiment online is bad, but from a market structure perspective, this is also a common part of the bottoming process."

MAG 7 Sell-off and AI CapEx

Anthony Pompliano:

A lot of people get worried because of Bitcoin's volatility. I think that's entirely the wrong way to think. I actually like that my holdings go through periods of being disliked by the market. I don't want to own assets that are always hot. Because once an asset is a perpetual market darling, it means it's too popular, too crowded, and the returns have often already been arbitraged away. Conversely, assets that cyclically fall out of favor often have stronger asymmetry and higher potential future returns. So volatility itself is important.

In today's episode, John interviews me. We discuss Kevin Warsh, the Fed, inflation expectations, interest rates, the AI CapEx debate, the MAG 7, the S&P 500, Bitcoin, SpaceX, and many other topics. I will also clarify my current investment framework for public and private markets and specifically mention some assets I have already allocated to my portfolio.

John Pompliano: Let's start with the first topic. Recently, there's been a sell-off in the MAG 7. Do you see this as a valuation recalibration, or is the market starting to rethink the entire AI trade thesis?

Anthony Pompliano:

I think the core reason MAG 7 is being sold off is that they are essentially long-duration assets, making them very sensitive to inflation. Previously, the market worried that the Iran war would push up energy prices and that inflation would re-accelerate, so these assets were sold first.

I've been saying two things repeatedly in 2025. First, tariffs will not cause persistent inflation. Second, as long as the Iran war isn't a multi-year prolonged conflict, it's just a short-term price shock. We've indeed seen this short-term spike on the energy side, but it won't become a long-term inflation problem. The bigger picture is that there are still many structural deflationary forces at work in the US economy.

Of course, some will see inflation back above 3% and scream "inflation is out of control again." I don't see it that way. Many people's understanding of inflation has been skewed by the extreme 9%+ period a few years ago, as if high inflation will keep recurring. But if you look at history, inflation spiking above 9% is an extremely rare event in a person's lifetime. If I'm not mistaken, the last time US inflation exceeded 9% was in the 1970s, before I was born. So, in my lifetime, it's happened only once.

That bout of high inflation was serious, but also very understandable. Massive money printing and zero interest rates in 2020 almost inevitably led to high inflation. But that kind of artificial manipulation is fundamentally different from the price disturbances caused by the Iran war or tariffs.

Looking at the MAG 7, the market now has two layers of concern. The first concern is that if inflation continues to rise, these long-duration, interest-rate-sensitive assets will face valuation compression, leading to stock price corrections. That logic holds. The second concern is the fear of massive AI CapEx. Investors worry that after heavy CapEx spending, free cash flow will decrease, reducing future cash available for shareholders, thus lowering valuations.

But I believe two things will happen. First, inflation won't be as bad as the market fears. We're already seeing signs. In the latest inflation data, 60% of the increase came from energy. Once energy prices fall, inflation will naturally follow. Oil is already below $80. If it goes back to $60, what do you think happens to inflation? I'm not ready to say "inflation has peaked" with 100% certainty, but I think it's very close. Whether it has peaked or will peak in the May/June data, my judgment is that inflation in Q3 and Q4 will be lower than in Q2. If this holds, valuation multiples for the MAG 7 will re-expand.

The other part is AI CapEx. In my view, this comes down to two key questions. First, does the demand we anticipate actually exist? Second, will these capital expenditures eventually yield returns? If demand exists, returns are possible because people will use the infrastructure. Does demand exist? Simply put, do you use AI more frequently today than a year ago? Absolutely.

But the market and media are now discussing another thing: Is our current use of AI Tokens efficient enough? Are the computing power and energy consumed by enterprises to call models truly worth it? I feel this deeply myself. Many know we are building a product called CFO Sylvia. During development, we encountered a real problem: costs were rising. Since users can generate their own queries, without a smart enough Token management mechanism, expenses are theoretically unlimited.

Initially, the team focused on "building the product first." Once it was running, you realize the real problem is Token cost. What to do? You must improve Token efficiency.

We made many specific adjustments. For example, some pages would re-call the model every time a user refreshed. Completely unnecessary. We stopped it, and Token consumption dropped immediately. Some features periodically called models continuously. They looked cool but were major Token consumers. We cut those features and waited for user complaints. No one complained, so we didn't restore them. This saved a massive amount of Tokens.

Later, we adjusted the architecture and focused more on cash costs. I initially thought this was our own problem. But then I talked to a group of CEOs, and everyone said the same thing: We're spending too much on Tokens, with no idea where the ROI is.

So, everyone is shifting towards the same goal: using fewer Tokens to get the same output. This is why I was tweeting that the phase of blindly chasing Token usage, with leaderboards for "who calls the model more," won't last long. The world will eventually return to metrics like efficiency, effectiveness, and ROI.

This is precisely why I'm bullish on private model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Grok. You'll see customers like CFO Sylvia, or any enterprise client, demanding "I want to use fewer Tokens but get the same results." Individual customers are becoming more efficient. Simultaneously, the total addressable market is expanding, and product adoption is rising. So, the total revenue for these model companies could still be very high. To me, this is a sign of product-market fit. As long as open-source models haven't completely eaten their lunch, these companies are running excellent businesses right now.

The next question becomes: What is the bottleneck limiting the spread of this technology? Power, data centers, chips. You'll find constraints are in these areas. I recently saw news about a company moving employee hours to 1 AM to 10 AM. One reason is they believe calling models during this time is cheaper, system load is lower, and answers are more accurate. I don't think most companies will do this, but it shows people are seriously thinking about model calling efficiency.

If demand for this technology is persistent, it means we still don't have enough data centers, power, and chips. It means bidding for resources in this direction will continue.

So, those worried about AI CapEx returns can raise a long-term question: Will there be overbuilding? Yes, eventually in any cycle, overbuilding can occur. It's a historical pattern, hard to control precisely. But I don't see this problem in the short term. I see strong demand for software and specialized workflows, and robust demand for data centers, power, and chips—so strong that companies are discussing building orbital data centers.

So, I think the market's anxiety here is somewhat misplaced. Especially regarding the MAG 7, many were focused on "expected spending," but expectations are not actuals. Just as expected revenue isn't recognized revenue, expected CapEx isn't necessarily spent.

A likely scenario is a company says it will spend $10 billion on CapEx over the next two years, but the actual spending ends up being $6 billion. $6 billion is still a huge number, but it's 40% less than the market feared. The market is overly fixated on the inflation narrative, and I think it's mispriced. More importantly, I believe everyone is equally over-trusting the AI CapEx guidance numbers. I think actual spending will likely be lower than today's market fears.

So, look at specific companies in the MAG 7. Take Google, for instance. Its stock has dropped lately, which is interesting. Google is now cheaper than Apple in terms of valuation, yet it grows faster. Why? The core reason is market concern over AI CapEx. If you actually look at the data and fundamentals, I think this creates a great opportunity to buy some of the world's best companies at lower valuations.

Look at their P/E ratios and other valuation metrics