每周編輯精選 Weekly Editor's Picks（0613-0619）

The flow of information is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column retrieves these valuable insights from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, preserve the insights, and gain inspiration.

Macro Situation

After the Reopening of Hormuz, What Trades is the Market Betting On?

The conflict has largely transitioned from the military sphere to the diplomatic one. The market is shifting from a "war shock" to a "supply recovery."

After the strait reopened, the market is shorting the risk premium on crude oil, going long on airlines, cruise lines, and the tourism chain, going long on Asian energy-importing countries, going long on bond duration, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being repriced.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Ray Dalio: When AI Giants Dominate US Stocks, I Choose Not to Bet on Direction, But to Do Only One Thing

Technological progress itself does not automatically mean that related stocks are equally attractive. Major historical technology cycles often involve excitement, crowding, volatility, and a shakeout.

When a handful of tech companies occupy an increasingly higher weight in indices, investors need to be wary of unconsciously holding highly correlated, concentrated risk exposure. Compared to continuing to chase a few leaders, a truly more robust approach is to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust the volatility level based on one's own risk tolerance.

Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction for the Four-Year Cycle of the Crypto Industry

While the product logic of private placement perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and asset tokenization is sound and market demand is well-validated, external policy forces outside the industry severely limit their development speed.

By 2029, what will remain in the public eye is the core product that the crypto industry has truly been building after going through rounds of speculative cycles—the asset trading market.

Data Deciphers the BTC Cycle: Three Major Bottom Signals Flash Simultaneously, Could Q4 Be a Key Turning Point?

When BTC was above $120,000, everyone was willing to believe it would go higher; but when it fell back to around $60,000, with on-chain valuations, cycle positions, long-term holder ratios, and macro variables all pointing to a bottom zone, the market paradoxically lacked confidence the most.

The current zone is more akin to a window for staggered accumulation that requires patience, discipline, and confidence.

Written After the SpaceX Debut: With a $2.1 Trillion Market Cap, Is It Still Worth Chasing?

SpaceX jumped $150, with its market cap settling at $2.1 trillion on its first day of trading. At this stage, SpaceX's revenue simply cannot support its massive valuation.

Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable business. Space launches are SpaceX's flagship offering.

Besides the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the large proportion of retail investors in the IPO might also be a reason for the suppressed SPACEX stock price. Musk released 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors. A larger proportion of retail holdings inherently means higher volatility, as retail investors can buy without regard for cost due to FOMO and can also sell emotionally on slight fluctuations. Therefore, retail investors truly affect volatility, not the final price increase.

For investors focused on SpaceX, the following two time points are particularly important:

1. Approximately 15 trading days after the IPO (expected around July 6-7), there is a high probability that SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq index, prompting top-tier funds to buy the stock;
2. SpaceX's Q2 earnings report release (mid-to-late August).

The Higher It Rises, the More Dangerous? The Systemic Risk Behind SpaceX's Valuation Surge

A gamma squeeze is a feedback loop where options market makers are forced to buy the stock to hedge, further pushing up the price. If SpaceX follows this path and is further elevated by its own narrative strength, limited float, and Musk's personal influence, it could evolve from a high-valuation stock into a systemic variable for the entire market.

The more dangerous part lies in indexation and passive investing. When a company is large enough, it gets included in major indices and is passively held by ETFs, pensions, retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, the bubble is no longer just an adventure for a few traders but enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it rises, the harder it is for the market to bypass it; and the harder it is to bypass it, the more likely capital continues to flow into it.

The article discusses a structural paradox of modern capital markets: when market mechanisms themselves can amplify narrative, leverage, and liquidity enough to overwhelm fundamentals, can "price discovery" still hold?

For Those Still Obsessed with Altcoins, Just Buy HOOD

HOOD has risen recently amid multiple positive factors.

For a long time, crypto-related revenue has been a significant part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price has shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. However, recently, there have been signs that Robinhood is breaking free from its dependence on crypto revenue and moving away from this correlation. Its stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO, and new underwriting businesses are still expected to support its earnings growth.

If the crypto market returns to a bull run in the future, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue will likely explode simultaneously, and HOOD will still be able to enjoy the dividends of industry growth.

Missing the Crypto Stock Wave, Korean Crypto Exchanges Forced to Speculate on "Shitcoins"

Against the backdrop of a weakening crypto market and Korean crypto investors turning to stock trading, the Q1 2026 performance of South Korean exchanges collectively declined, prompting them to urgently seek measures to reverse the slump. However, unlike overseas exchanges that can transform into "everything exchanges" by listing a large number of tokenized stocks to meet crypto trader demand, South Korea classifies tokenized stocks as securities, thus prohibiting crypto exchanges from engaging in such trades. It also does not allow Korean crypto exchanges to trade crypto futures, derivatives, or spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

South Korea's regulatory measures aimed at protecting investors have paradoxically pushed crypto exchanges towards the most speculative corners of the market. With revenue streams and new product lines like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets all banned, exchanges, in order to boost platform trading volume, tend to choose to list those attention-grabbing, more speculative "shitcoin" tokens.

Web3 & AI

AI Version of the Subprime Crisis? $1.8 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Exposure Becomes the Time Bomb of This Rally

Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in non-cancellable lease contracts, and tens of billions in supplier financing arrangements together constitute approximately $1.8 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposure—liabilities that exist outside the balance sheet but genuinely lock in future cash outflows. The market has yet to fully price in these risks.

Morgan Stanley warns that the leverage ratio of hyperscale cloud companies has surged from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters. Capital expenditure growth continues to outpace revenue and free cash flow growth, while the true impact of depreciation pressure has yet to hit.

Meanwhile, private credit institutions like Apollo and Blackstone are transferring leverage to the supply chain level through SPVs, forming a highly circular and opaque financing structure. If AI commercialization falls short of expectations, or if enterprise customers shift en masse to cheaper alternatives, the fragility of the entire financing chain will be exposed.

After Just a Few Days of the World Cup, Some AI Prediction Models are Crowned Gods, Others Crash

Large models like Qianwen, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset possibilities, red card risks, key player performances, and match trend analysis.

For participants in prediction markets, AI's pre-game simulations are becoming another layer of reference alongside odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.

Who's Splitting Your AI Monthly Fee? A Diagram Breaks Down the Computing Power Supply Chain Behind $20

A cost breakdown chart for a $20 Claude subscription, splitting the monthly AI fee among model companies, cloud computing power, GPUs, electricity, and the supply chain.

AI subscriptions have ongoing inference costs and cannot directly apply the high-margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.

Related targets: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and the power chain.

Prediction Markets

The First Pure-Play Prediction Market Stock Has Arrived!

Kalshi had announced a partnership with US online brokerage Robinhood, where the latter would use the former to provide its users with prediction market trading services, allowing users to bet on events like politics, economics, and sports. However, this relationship has recently seen some subtle changes. Robinhood is gradually realizing that what is truly scarce might not be the market itself, but the user entry point it firmly controls. Robinhood holds a crucial resource—distribution capability.

After about six months of accelerated development, the Rothera product gradually took shape, and Robinhood finally made the almost inevitable move—gradually shifting the orders originally flowing to Kalshi into its own controlled system. Robinhood deliberately chose a perfect launch battleground for Rothera—the World Cup.

If the theme of the prediction market industry over the past few years has been the market competition between Polymarket and Kalshi, the theme for the next few years might become a battle of distribution channels.

Also recommended: "World Cup Kicks Off: A Look at 'Huge Profits' and 'Massive Losses' in the Prediction Market".

CeFi & DeFi

IOSG: On the Day of the SpaceX Listing, the First Real-World Test of Three Perpetual Mechanisms

Without a public spot price, how does the market price something? This is the core challenge that the entire Pre-IPO perpetual category must solve.

In the SpaceX case, trade.xyz captured the on-chain market (approximately 96.5% of volume), not because its oracle was smarter, but because near-zero funding rates made holding this position virtually cost-free, it launched coinciding with the IPO catalyst, and its per-share pricing allowed for cross-exchange arbitrage.

However, while Pre-IPO perpetuals are good at handling prices, they are still primitive at handling events. Corporate actions, especially a stock split after conversion, have no pipeline on-chain: trade.xyz hasn't disclosed any rebase mechanism, while Ventuals outsourced this to a single data provider, which has already caused one incident (an outdated split data point caused its market to flash crash 45%). The bottleneck isn't price discovery; it's the boring "corporate action" processing layer: traditional markets took a century to standardize it, but no one on-chain has rebuilt it yet. Whoever can reliably deliver it will fill the last gap between these markets and the markets they aim to replace.

STRC Severely De-pegs, What Risk is the Market Pricing In?

STRC fell to around $89. Based on an $11.50 annualized dividend, this translates to a simple current yield of approximately 12.9%.

The market divergence isn't about whether Strategy can immediately stop paying dividends, but how to discount BTC reserves, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competition from similar products.

Related targets: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.

STRC De-pegs 11%, Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Still Turn?

The market's pricing of STRC reflects not only investor sentiment towards a preferred stock but also market confidence in Strategy's entire capital operation model.

Within Strategy's balance sheet expansion cycle, STRC is not just an ordinary financing tool; it is the strongest engine of Strategy's current capital flywheel. Through the cycle of "issuing more STRC → raising fiat → buying BTC → increasing company net asset value → boosting STRC trust," Strategy has successfully built a seemingly infinite capital flywheel. However, the key prerequisite for this flywheel to operate smoothly is that STRC must maintain its value around the $100 par level.

The failure of the dividend adjustment mechanism implies that the risk the market is pricing in extends beyond STRC's yield. First are superficial technical factors. Some market participants believe the recent decline is largely due to a concentrated stampede from arbitrage capital deleveraging. A deeper concern lies with Strategy's liquidity reserve situation.

Annualized 15%-25%, Is BlackRock's Bitcoin Yield ETF an Opportunity or a Trap?

BITA, based on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund IBIT, generates stable option premium income for investors by selling covered call options, but at the cost of sacrificing some of the upside gains from Bitcoin. This yield-focused Bitcoin fund is designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, addressing the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets.

Fund flows will provide the final answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin while Bitcoin holds above the $65,000 range, it would indicate sustainability in institutional buying. Conversely, if yield ETFs only divert existing funds from spot funds, the bearish "yield trap" judgment will be confirmed.

Ethereum & Scaling

Sharplink CEO: One Million Ethereum Developers, Who Can Compete?

Ethereum's core advantage isn't speed, but its aggregation of the largest and deepest talent pool; its true moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built by composability, standard-setting, and credible neutrality; these builders are focused on cutting-edge issues like scalability and quantum resistance, continuously solidifying Ethereum's position as the default operating system for financial internet.

Weekly Hot Topic Review

Policy & Macro Markets

Iranian media publishes detailed terms of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including the reopening of the Hormuz seafood and the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds;

The United States and Iran announce an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts;

US-Iran agreement confirmed reached; crypto and gold surge, oil plummets;