写於SpaceX首秀之後：2.1萬億美元市值，還值得追嗎？

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

On June 12, U.S. local time, Elon Musk did not go to New York. Before SpaceX's stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) officially debuted on Nasdaq, he chose to stay at the company's Texas headquarters, standing among employees to complete a remote bell-ringing ceremony.

During the ceremony, Musk once again pitched SpaceX's vision to the stars. He stated that the company's goal is to send humanity to the moon, Mars, and even farther into interstellar space. After the bell ringing, Nasdaq's live channel played Elton John's "Rocketman," adding a romantic footnote to the most anticipated IPO in the history of space commercialization.

But the sentimental part ended there, and the game of capital markets began. SpaceX's IPO was priced at $135. It opened at $150 on its first day, briefly rose above $176 during the session, and eventually closed at $160.95, temporarily giving it a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion.

Opened at $150, Market Cap Settled at $2.1 Trillion on Debut

SpaceX's IPO has been globally anticipated since it filed its registration statement with the U.S. SEC. The company ultimately decided to issue approximately 555.6 million shares of Class A common stock at a fixed price of $135, corresponding to a valuation of $1.77 trillion.

Regarding equity distribution, Musk personally holds approximately 42%, Valor Equity holds about 7.3%, Google holds about 5%, other early venture capital firms collectively hold 10-12%, current and former employees hold 10-15%, and the shares publicly offered in this IPO account for only 4.2%. Although Musk and his affiliated interest groups hold the majority of SpaceX shares, none of their shares can be sold on the first day of listing. The lock-up period for core investors like Musk and Valor Equity is 366 days, and ordinary IPO shareholders (institutions and employees) must also endure a basic 180-day lock-up, meaning they cannot sell until at least the end of 2026.

Therefore, on the listing day of June 12, the initial circulating supply was only the approximately 555.6 million shares of Class A common stock from the public offering. SpaceX is a typical "low float, high FDV" project. According to its valuation model, the first-day circulating market cap was about $75 billion, which is close to SpaceX's initially planned fundraising amount.

For investors familiar with crypto projects, a highly controlled supply model is not unfamiliar. Therefore, during the subscription phase, market sentiment quickly fell into FOMO. Reports indicate that SpaceX received over four times oversubscription, with total subscription demand from institutions and retail investors exceeding $250 billion. Retail investor subscriptions alone surpassed $100 billion, far exceeding the $75 billion offering size. Crypto players naturally participated in this feast, but unfortunately, most came away empty-handed. (Related reading: SpaceX On-chain New Issue Dream Shattered: I Only Got 4 Shares in the Trillion-dollar IPO Feast)

Notably, SpaceX's rare plan to allocate up to 30% of its IPO shares to retail investors significantly lowered the barrier to participation in this tech feast. Typically, such large IPOs allocate only 5% to 10% to retail investors. Although SpaceX ultimately allocated only about 20%, it is still double the usual IPO ratio.

The reason for this is that SpaceX management believes retail investors will hold their shares long-term, just as Tesla's core investor group today is also largely retail investors. Essentially, they trust that retail investors will buy into the dream Musk describes, but this time, retail investors were far more rational than expected. (Detailed explanation below.)

Before SPCX officially started trading on Nasdaq, the pre-IPO quote for SPCX on Hyperliquid fluctuated between $170 and $175, corresponding to a valuation of over $2.2 trillion. Before the official market open, during Nasdaq's auction period, SPCX's indicative opening price initially stood at $172, up about 29% from the IPO price, roughly in line with pre-market expectations. However, an hour later, SPCX's indicative opening price rapidly declined, ultimately opening at $150, up only about 11% from the IPO price.

According to Gate's US stock market data, SPCX eventually rose to around $176 during the session and closed at $160.95, up about 19% from the IPO price, but only up about 7.3% from the opening price. The first-day market cap settled at $2.1 trillion. In hindsight, SpaceX's first-day performance was certainly successful, making Musk the world's first trillionaire. However, the result was not spectacular and even fell short of full market expectations.

In the pre-pricing of SpaceX, not only did Pre-IPO platforms stumble a bit, but prediction markets were also inaccurate. A few hours before the SpaceX IPO, the market generally expected its market cap to surpass $2.2 trillion. On Polymarket, the probability of "SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2 trillion" was still above 65%, once peaking at 70%.

However, as SPCX's price opened "relatively low," the probability of this event began to fluctuate wildly. Ultimately, SpaceX's IPO closing market cap settled near $2.1 trillion, and the event was settled as "No."

Retail Investors Impact Volatility, Not the Upside

There is only one reason for this phenomenon: although the market is still willing to believe in SpaceX's narrative and the "Musk premium," SpaceX is simply too expensive. As long as there is a good price, even the strongest conviction can be sold off.

SpaceX is the first super-behemoth in human history to directly parachute into the capital market with a "trillion-dollar valuation." On its first day of listing, its market cap surpassed tech giants like Meta and Samsung, making it the world's ninth-largest company by market cap. However, even the most euphoric retail investors know that SpaceX's current revenue cannot support its massive valuation. SpaceX has yet to achieve profitability, with a net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year 2025, and a net loss of approximately $4.28 billion in Q1 2026.

Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable business. Prospectus data shows that in 2025, Starlink generated revenue of $11.387 billion, accounting for 61% of SpaceX's total revenue, with an operating profit of $4.423 billion. It has over 10.3 million global users and over 9,600 satellites in orbit. In Q1 2026, it achieved revenue of $3.257 billion and an operating profit of $1.188 billion. However, this "cash cow" business is merely SpaceX's side hustle.

Space launch is SpaceX's main calling card. As of the prospectus, the Falcon rocket family has completed over 650 launches with a success rate of 99%. Its reusable rocket booster technology provides a significant cost advantage and technological leadership in the industry. However, SpaceX's largest external customer for launch services is the U.S. government, and the business is still loss-making. In 2025, SpaceX's launch business had an operating loss of $657 million, a loss rate of 16.1%. In Q1 2026, the operating loss surged to $662 million, with a loss rate of 107%.

The reason for these massive losses is SpaceX's increased investment in the Starship program. However, based on current technological and use-case bottlenecks, Starship is still some distance away from true commercial mass production.

Beyond these two businesses, SpaceX's still-promising space computing business is also factored into its valuation. Compared to the mature Starlink and launch businesses, Musk's claims about the space computing business seem a bit overblown.

In simple terms, SpaceX's plan involves sending GPUs into low Earth orbit, using solar power to provide cloud computing power for global AI clusters. Musk stated in the SpaceX prospectus that the goal is to deploy 100GW of AI computing capacity to orbit annually. Currently, the global AI industry's annual electricity demand is around 15-25GW scale. This means SpaceX's planned orbital computing system could theoretically support expanding today's global AI industry by about five times.

In case readers don't know what 100GW means? The installed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam is approximately 22.5GW. So, the scale of one of Musk's planned space computing centers is equivalent to 4.4 Three Gorges Dams operating at full capacity.

Furthermore, the prospectus explicitly states that in the future (mainly related to AI business), it could tap into a potential market of $28.5 trillion. For context, China, the world's second-largest economy, had a nominal GDP of approximately $19.4 trillion in 2025. The figure SpaceX proposes is equivalent to 1.47 times China's 2025 nominal GDP.

Reading this, you might wonder if this is a stock prospectus or a science fiction novel. Even the most FOMO-driven investors need to cool down upon seeing these numbers. Research firm CFRA gave SpaceX a "Sell" rating immediately after its IPO, with a target price of $115.

Besides the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the excessive proportion of retail IPO shares might also be a reason for the suppression of SPCX's stock price. Musk released 20-30% of the IPO shares to retail investors. A higher proportion of retail holdings inherently implies greater volatility. Retail investors can buy without regard for cost due to FOMO, but they can also sell emotionally without thinking at the slightest fluctuation. Therefore, what retail investors truly impact is volatility, not the final price appreciation.

Key Battleground Timelines Ahead

Of course, whether you are watching from the sidelines or have already cashed out, for investors watching SpaceX, the following three time points are particularly important.

Approximately 15 Trading Days Post-IPO (Estimated around July 6 - July 7)

This is the most important timeline, as SpaceX could potentially enter the Nasdaq 100 index directly after 15 trading days. In March, Nasdaq specifically revised its rules. Previously, newly listed companies had to wait three months to be eligible for index inclusion. Now, they can be fast-tracked for inclusion just 15 trading days after listing if conditions are met, and the minimum float requirement of about 10% has also been removed. These new regulations seem tailor-made for SpaceX and the subsequent wave of AI tech giants.

If SpaceX is successfully included in the index, it means that over ten billion dollars in global passive funds will be compelled to buy SpaceX stock, providing significant support for its share price. So, if it's highly probable that SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq index in July, and top-tier funds will then buy this stock, would you, as an investor, choose to buy now and sell it to them at a higher price later?

However, on the other side, some U.S. pension funds and long-term insurance funds have already expressed protest. In May 2026, three of the largest U.S. public pension fund managers (with over $1 trillion in assets under management) jointly wrote to Musk, expressing concerns about the passive capital risks that fast-track index inclusion might bring. In the same month, Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers (representing about 1.8 million teachers, healthcare workers, and public sector employees), directly wrote to the SEC, requesting a special review of the SpaceX IPO.

SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Report (Mid-August)

The second key timeline is the release of SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings report in August. This will be SpaceX's first report card after going public. If the business shows no progress compared to now (and realistically, significant progress is unlikely), its stock price may face further pressure. Furthermore, the prospectus stipulates that two days after the company releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, eligible internal shareholders (employees, former employees, some early investors) can sell a portion of their locked-up shares, up to a maximum of 20%. If the stock price is 30% above the IPO price and meets this standard for 5 out of 10 trading days, an additional 10% can be unlocked.

This means that in August, the market will not only have to deal with the volatility from SpaceX's earnings report but also face the first major unlock of shares since the listing – a significant challenge.

Whether we will be choked by Musk's dream remains to be seen. Based on the first-day performance, while the market chose to believe the story, it didn't completely lose its mind. What will ultimately determine SpaceX's fate is its own real-world performance.

Recommended Reading:

SpaceX On-chain New Issue Dream Shattered: I Only Got 4 Shares in the Trillion-dollar IPO Feast