Why is there such a large price difference in SpaceX pre-market contracts across different exchanges?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)

SpaceX‘s trillion-dollar mega IPO is finally approaching.

You open the exchange, ready to open a position before the IPO, but suddenly you notice... SPCX is temporarily quoted at 169 USDT on Binance, 155 USDT on OKX, and 154 USDC on Hyperliquid. The pre-market contract prices on the three platforms are all different, with a particularly huge spread between Binance and the other two. Why is this happening?

Simply put, the reason for this situation is partly because different platforms have independent price discovery mechanisms, but the more critical reason is that the share capital data and valuation conversion methods used by each platform are not exactly the same.

First, it needs to be clarified that the SPCX currently listed on Binance, OKX, Bitget, and Hyperliquid are not real SpaceX stocks, but rather derivatives designed around the future IPO price. These products will ultimately be settled based on SpaceX‘s market capitalization and share capital data after the IPO. Therefore, their prices essentially reflect the market’s expectations for SpaceX’s final valuation. Since SpaceX has not yet gone public, these expected prices lack a definitive anchoring standard. This uncertainty is the source of the current market price spread game.

Differences in Share Capital Data Across Three Major Exchanges

Let’s look back at the historical announcements from Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid regarding the listing of SpaceX pre-market contracts.

OKX listed the SPACEX pre-market contract on May 7, with an initial estimated share count of 1 billion shares. Therefore, shortly after listing, the SPACEX contract price consistently stayed above 2000 USDT; then on June 2, based on SpaceX’s S-1 filing, OKX adjusted the share count to 12.52 billion shares (Odaily Planet Daily note: This adjustment process is called Rebase, a term that will be used below), and renamed the SPACEX pre-market contract to the SPCX pre-market contract. Correspondingly, the SPCX contract price was “adjusted” to the 150 - 200 USDT range.

Hyperliquid’s SPCX pre-market contract was listed on May 17 via the HIP-3 market Trade.xyz. Regarding the share capital benchmark, Trade.xyz initially disclosed that it was based on approximately 11.87 billion shares calculated from private market trading data, but the community discovered that Trade.xyz subsequently deleted the relevant description from its documentation.

Binance listed the SPCX pre-market contract trading on May 21, with an initial share count also at 11.87 billion shares; On the evening of June 8, Binance announced it would perform a Rebase on SPCX, directly adjusting the share count to 13.08 billion shares as disclosed in the latest IPO plan (compared to the 12.52 billion shares in the S-1, this includes an additional 556 million shares from the IPO issuance). The Rebase will be executed at 16:30 Beijing time tomorrow.

To summarize, the current situation is quite clear:

• OKX currently uses the share capital data of 12.52 billion shares from the S-1 filing. Whether it will undergo another Rebase subsequently remains uncertain for now;
• Hyperliquid (Trade.xyz) previously disclosed using 11.87 billion shares, but since the relevant statement has been deleted, the market estimates the likelihood of a future Rebase is extremely low, and it may have defaulted to tracking the actual share capital;
• Binance currently uses the share capital data of 11.87 billion shares but will Rebase to 13.08 billion shares tomorrow.

Actual Price Comparison Across the Three Platforms

With the share capital data above, we can calculate the “true price” actually reflected by the SPCX pre-market contracts on the three platforms based on real-time prices.

As of 17:00 Beijing time, the real-time quotes for the SPCX pre-market contracts on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid were 169.62 USDT, 155.35 USDT, and 154.62 USDC, respectively.

Taking this static data, combined with the share capital data mentioned earlier, the following calculation results can be derived:

• Binance is temporarily quoted at 169.62 USDT. After completing the Rebase tomorrow, it will adjust to 154.2 USDT;
• OKX is temporarily quoted at 155.35 USDT. If another Rebase is performed (adjusting to 13.08 billion shares), the corresponding price would be 148.7 USDT;
• Hyperliquid is temporarily quoted at 154.62 USDC. If a Rebase were performed, the corresponding price would be 140.3 USDC.

At first glance, doesn‘t it seem like Hyperliquid has the cheapest price? Not so fast! The current situation is that the market expects OKX and Hyperliquid likely will not Rebase again before SpaceX completes its IPO.

For OKX, the reason is that a Rebase has already been performed, and the official documentation for pre-market contracts only mentioned “Rebasing based on the S-1 share capital data,” a step that is now complete.

For Hyperliquid, we can refer to the analysis by arbitrage expert “Silicon Bird｜Ray” (X: @limxn6), who believes the probability of a subsequent Rebase is extremely low.

So, the situation is that while the prices on OKX and Hyperliquid after a Rebase might seem very attractive, these prices are very likely never to materialize.

A more realistic price comparison should be: Binance (154.2 USDT) < Hyperliquid (154.62 USDC) < OKX (155.35 USDT).

Two conclusions can be drawn here. First, there is almost no arbitrage opportunity left between OKX, Hyperliquid, and Binance (last night, after Binance announced the Rebase, the arbitrage window was as high as 10%). Second, the premium on OKX and Hyperliquid can still be attributed to the market pricing in their minimal possibility of a Rebase, with OKX’s higher premium implying it has a slightly higher chance of a Rebase compared to Hyperliquid.

Measuring the Same Thing with Different Rulers

As SpaceX’s IPO draws closer and market rules become clearer, the best arbitrage window may have already passed; but for ordinary investors, this price game surrounding SPCX provides an excellent sample for observing the operational logic of the pre-market market.

Many people are accustomed to interpreting pre-market contract prices directly as “future stock prices.” However, after the above analysis, it‘s not hard to see that trading in the pre-market involves more than just simple numbers. Behind the prices lies not only the market’s judgment of the company’s future valuation but also the exchange’s product design, choice of share capital benchmark, and participants‘ expectations regarding rule changes.

In other words, when you see different quotes for SPCX on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid, they don’t necessarily indicate a huge divergence in market opinion about SpaceX. They are more likely measuring the same target with different rulers.