From calling for HYPE to hit $150 to completely liquidating his position in just three days, how much credibility does Arthur Hayes have left?
- Key Insight: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has recently repeatedly made public price calls for crypto assets (such as HYPE, WLD) only to quickly liquidate his holdings, achieving a precise top exit. This operational model damages market credibility, and investors should focus on his on-chain behavior rather than his words.
- Key Elements:
- Just three days after publicly calling for HYPE to reach $150 and setting up a bet, Arthur Hayes liquidated his position, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% on the day, successfully exiting at the $75.5 high.
- After calling for WLD to reach $10, he liquidated it just three days later, causing WLD to drop over 20% on the day. He explained it away as "abnormal" pre-market pricing on SpaceX, with the move resembling a "pump and dump."
- His reasons for selling include rising energy costs, AI stock IPOs, and policy shifts that could burst the AI bubble, but his actual actions contradict his words, often showing "bullish one moment, liquidating the next."
- Historical cases show that Arthur Hayes often quickly liquidates after publicly turning bullish. For example, after touting HYPE in August 2025, he liquidated a month later for millions in profit, after which the token's price saw volatile declines.
- Long-term investors summarize his pattern as "don't trust his words, but watch his on-chain moves." Building positions requires cautious follow-through, while selling needs to be decisive, but continued manipulation will lead to a credibility backlash.
Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes still have? Recently, Arthur Hayes, the "father of crypto perpetual swaps" and co-founder of BitMEX, has come under public fire. On-chain detective ZachXBT also publicly questioned how much exit liquidity he has created using his followers.
Liquidated HYPE, NEAR, WLD
Starting last week, Arthur Hayes executed multiple unannounced sell-offs at market tops.
Arthur Hayes repeatedly stated publicly that HYPE would rise to $150 in this cycle. On June 1, Arthur Hayes was still passionately arguing with and making a $100,000 betting agreement with Kyle Samani, former co-founder of Multicoin Capital, over disparaging comments about Hyperliquid. However, just 3 days later, Arthur Hayes announced he had fully liquidated his positions in HYPE and NEAR, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% that day. His sell-off indeed successfully timed the top; after hitting a new high of $75.5 on June 4, HYPE has been declining continuously and is currently trading around $62-64.
Besides selling HYPE and NEAR, Arthur Hayes also liquidated ZEC and WLD. While liquidating ZEC might be justified due to the Orchard Pool attack, his sale of WLD resembles a classic "KOL pump and dump" operation of early positioning, public shilling, and finally selling into strength.
From publicly shilling WLD to liquidating it, Arthur Hayes only "held the act" for 3 days. On June 3, a day before selling HYPE, Arthur Hayes publicly promoted WLD with a target of $10, claiming WLD would become an alternative investment for those unable to directly participate in SpaceX equity transactions. After the news spread, WLD surged over 35% that day. But by June 6, Arthur Hayes changed his tune, stating he had liquidated WLD because the SpaceX pre-market price action was "abnormal." This flimsy explanation caused WLD to drop over 20% that day.
What sets Arthur Hayes apart from "third-rate KOLs" is his ability to write lengthy essays, often providing reasonable justifications for his actions from a macroeconomic and top-level design perspective.
On June 9, Arthur Hayes published a long article, Reality Test (approx. 20-min read), explaining his recent operations. He argues that three factors will pop the AI bubble: rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the IPOs of three major AI stocks (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump pivoting against AI for the midterm elections.
In light of this, his family office Maelstrom holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers, has sold off AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, and now only holds BTC and ETH.
Don't Listen to Arthur Hayes's Words, But Watch His Moves
Arthur Hayes's articles are adept at using extensive economic data and charts to support his views, sometimes adding political and historical perspectives that can be quite persuasive. However, when you believe his words and invest real money following his lead, he might announce his liquidation and turn bearish the very next day, as if completely forgetting what he said previously, leaving your portfolio devastated.
Such operations are not uncommon. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly performed the "turn bullish first, liquidate later" routine. The most classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, Arthur Hayes touted HYPE during a speech at WebX in Japan, claiming the token still had a 126x upside potential (Note from Odaily: price was $45.9 that day). Just one month later, he announced liquidating HYPE for millions in profit, citing the need to avoid token unlock risks.
This time, Arthur Hayes sold HYPE right at the peak of its previous cycle, after which HYPE began a volatile decline. He didn't start buying HYPE again in size until mid-January 2026. Looking at the price action, he bought HYPE right at the bottom of the current cycle.
Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA, where he publicly expressed bullish views, then sold without warning, perfectly timing the top. (Related Reading: You Did It Again! A Review of Arthur Hayes's Top-Timing Exits)
Long-time followers of Arthur Hayes have summarized a methodology: Don't listen to Arthur Hayes's words; you must watch his moves. Be cautious in following his entries, and decisively liquidate when he sells.
However, if Arthur Hayes continues this charade, especially in cases like manipulating WLD's price volatility, regardless of how well he masks his excuses, his market credibility will be threatened. This is akin to a crypto version of the "boy who cried wolf" story. In the end, Arthur Hayes is bound to face a backlash.
He did get one thing right in his latest article: "I am still nothing but a gambler," and gamblers rarely meet a good end.
