对冲基金一季度解读：每个人都在抛软件，买芯片
- 核心觀點：2025年第一季度，美国对冲基金与大型共同基金在科技板块内部达成罕见共识，系统性抛售软件股并显著涌入半导体板块，将半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重推至历史最高水平，同时市场多空博弈同步加剧。
- 關鍵要素：
- 半导体在对冲基金多头组合中的权重创历史新高，而软件权重降至2019年以来最低；共同基金软件持仓降至2012年最低。
- 一季度对冲基金回报率达7%，但仅30%大型共同基金跑赢基准；对冲基金净杠杆回升至近一年高位，标普500卖空比例升至2011年以来最高的3%。
- 个股层面，微软成为两类机构上季度净减持规模最大的股票之一；对冲基金净增持LRCX、AMAT、ASML，共同基金增持INTC和SITM。
- 策略分化：对冲基金在二季度迅速加仓，而共同基金选择将现金占比从历史低点1.1%上调至1.4%，但仍处极低水平。
- 板块共识与分歧：两类机构均超配工业、低配信息技术，但调仓方向相反；对冲基金大幅提升信息技术净倾斜度，共同基金则削减。
Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wallstreetcn
In the first quarter, U.S. hedge funds and large mutual funds reached a rare consensus: selling software stocks and rushing into the semiconductor sector, pushing the weight of semiconductors in long portfolios to an all-time high.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" and "Mutual Fund Fundamentals" reports, this analysis covers 1,059 hedge funds (with total stock holdings of $4.6 trillion) and 509 large active mutual funds (with equity assets of $3.9 trillion).
The report shows that hedge funds have achieved a return rate of 7% so far this year, while only 30% of large mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks, below the historical average of 37% since 2007.
U.S. first-quarter 13F filings reveal a clear market consensus: hedge funds and mutual funds are simultaneously selling software stocks and flooding into the semiconductor sector. The scale of this rotation is so significant that it has pushed the weight of semiconductors in hedge funds' long portfolios to a record high.
In terms of position structure, hedge fund net leverage has rebounded to the 85th percentile over the past five years, near a one-year high. Meanwhile, the average short interest in S&P 500 components has risen to 3% of market capitalization, the highest level since 2011, indicating that bullish and bearish market bets are intensifying simultaneously.
Semiconductor Positions Hit Record Highs, Software Faces Systemic Reduction
The structural rotation within the technology sector was the most prominent theme of the quarter.
Goldman Sachs data shows that the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios has risen to the highest level on record, while the weight of software has fallen to its lowest since 2019. For mutual funds, software holdings have dropped to their lowest since 2012. Excluding Microsoft, mutual funds' overweight in semiconductors relative to software is also the largest since 2012.
At the individual stock level, Microsoft (MSFT) was one of the stocks most net sold by hedge funds and mutual funds last quarter. Mutual funds also broadly reduced their holdings in the other "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Although hedge funds reduced their holdings in most of the "Magnificent Seven," they achieved net increases in META and AAPL.
Regarding individual semiconductor stocks, hedge funds made net purchases of LRCX, AMAT, and ASML; mutual funds made net purchases of INTC and SITM.
Leverage and Cash: Hedge Funds Aggressive, Mutual Funds Cautious
Faced with escalating geopolitical tensions in the first quarter, the response strategies of the two types of institutions diverged significantly.
Hedge funds initially cut net leverage but quickly added positions as the market rebounded in the second quarter, pushing net exposure back to near one-year highs. Total leverage ratios remain in the high range relative to historical levels.
Mutual funds chose to increase their cash allocation, raising the cash-to-asset ratio from a historical low of 1.1% in early 2021 to 1.4% in early April.
Despite this, this level is still extremely low relative to history, suggesting that mutual funds have not broadly exited the equity market.
Sector Consensus and Divergence: Overweight Industrials, Tech Diverges
In sector allocation, the two types of institutions share a high degree of consensus but also have notable exceptions. Both hedge funds and mutual funds are overweight in the industrial sector and underweight in the information technology sector, but their directional shifts were completely opposite.
In the first quarter, hedge funds increased their net tilt towards information technology by 853 basis points, the largest single-quarter change on record for the sector, while simultaneously reducing their net tilt towards the industrial sector by 297 basis points.
Mutual funds took the opposite approach, increasing their exposure to industrials by 24 basis points and cutting their exposure to information technology by 20 basis points.
The two sectors with the most prominent divergence are financials and consumer discretionary: mutual funds are overweight in financials while hedge funds are underweight; hedge funds are overweight in consumer discretionary while mutual funds are underweight.
Four 'Common Favorites' Outperform the Market This Year
Goldman Sachs screened four 'common favorite' stocks that appear on both its Hedge Fund VIP list (GSTHHVIP) and Mutual Fund Overweight list (GSTHMFOW) this quarter: Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Visa (V). MRVL is a new addition this quarter, while Citigroup (C) and Vertiv (VRT) have exited the list.
These four stocks have achieved a return rate of 10% year-to-date, outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 index by 3 percentage points.
Over the longer term, since 2013, the 'common favorite' portfolio has had an annualized return of 16%, but with a high standard deviation of 22%, indicating significantly higher volatility. Currently, the median stock in this portfolio has a P/E ratio of 34 times, a notable premium over the S&P 500 median stock's 18 times.
It is worth noting that all 'Magnificent Seven' stocks are included in the hedge fund VIP list, but they are all underweighted by mutual funds, creating a stark contrast in the attitudes of the two types of institutions towards these core assets.
