BIT 投研：中美元首會晤後，市場開始重新定價「長期競爭」

The market is currently in a macro repricing phase jointly driven by geopolitical factors and policy expectations. Initially, the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders was interpreted by the market as a signal of détente, leading to a rise in tech stocks, a weaker US dollar, and a concurrent upward movement in Bitcoin. The market had anticipated an easing of tariff pressures, stabilization of the AI supply chain, and a reduction in geopolitical risks related to Taiwan and Iran, which rapidly fueled a risk-on sentiment.

However, as details of the meeting were gradually disclosed, the market realized that the previous optimistic pricing lacked sufficient support: there was no substantial easing of tariff policies, no breakthrough in AI export controls, and no significant progress on the Iran and Taiwan issues. Concerns about inflation further transformed into expectations of policy tightening, reviving selling pressure on bonds and precious metals.

From a long-term perspective, this meeting still reflects several noteworthy trends: the marginal weakening of the US dollar dominance, the diversification of global reserve asset allocation, the restructuring of the AI and semiconductor supply chains, and the deepening strategic competition between the US and China in cutting-edge technologies like low-earth orbit satellites and space.

From Risk-On to Repricing: The Market Returns to Inflation and Geopolitical Logic

Before the meeting, the market was trading on the "détente" logic. Tech stocks and commodities rose, the US dollar weakened, and Bitcoin rebounded concurrently, showing a clear recovery in market risk appetite. Especially in the AI and semiconductor sectors, the market had hoped the US might show goodwill through approved chip sales to China by Nvidia, thereby promoting a broader rapprochement. However, as the meeting's outcomes were further digested, market sentiment quickly cooled. Tariff pressures did not see a substantive alleviation, and sales of approved chips like the Nvidia H200 did not materialize. Meanwhile, Beijing continues to push for domestic AI alternatives and reduce corporate reliance on foreign AI chips.

More importantly, key geopolitical risks such as those related to Taiwan and Iran were not resolved. Therefore, the market has re-priced the risk that oil prices and inflationary pressures might persist longer. The sell-off in global bonds continues, and rising real yields have also dragged down the performance of gold and silver. In the short term, this meeting is positive for oil prices but negative for gold and sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, Bitcoin once again demonstrates its characteristic as a "macro liquidity asset."

The problem is that Bitcoin is currently not priced as a "structural safe-haven asset" in the short term. Instead, it remains primarily influenced by real yields, risk appetite, and liquidity conditions, behaving more like a high-beta version of the Nasdaq than "digital gold." This also implies that during macro events like the US-China summit, Bitcoin tends to act more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven.

From Agricultural Procurement to Space Competition: The Competitive Landscape Deepens Over the Long Term

Beyond macro pricing, this meeting further reflects that the long-term competitive framework between the US and China remains unchanged. Regarding agricultural procurement, China pledged to purchase at least $17 billion worth of US agricultural products annually between 2026 and 2028. This commitment is slightly above the market's low-end expectations but falls short of the optimistic scenarios some traders had previously bet on.

However, the market reaction to this was limited. The reasons are that China's demand for new imports remains constrained, and Brazilian agricultural products continue to squeeze out US suppliers with their price advantage. Furthermore, since the first trade war under Trump, Beijing has been diversifying its sources of agricultural imports to reduce reliance on US agricultural products. Some of the positive news was also priced in beforehand, as China had previously committed to purchasing 25 million tons of US soybeans, leaving relatively limited room for new additions from this meeting. In contrast, fertilizer stocks were among the few sectors to benefit modestly, supported both by the agricultural procurement commitment and supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.

Simultaneously, the US-China tech competition is further extending into low-earth orbit satellites and space infrastructure. China is building a low-earth orbit satellite constellation to rival Starlink, but it still lags behind SpaceX in scale and capability. The market believes that if SpaceX gains more capital support through an IPO, its expansion speed could further widen the gap with its Chinese competitors.

Overall, while this meeting yielded some interim results, including modest trade commitments and the continuation of a dialogue mechanism, the structural conflicts have not truly eased. The US and China seem to be "managing competition," rather than "resolving it." Both sides maintain sufficient contact to prevent further escalation but fall far short of changing the long-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, trends like the diversification of global reserve assets, AI supply chain restructuring, and prolonged geopolitical risks continue. For the market, the truly important variables are no longer just the meeting itself, but the repricing of global liquidity, real yields, and the long-term strategic competitive landscape.

The above opinions are partly from BIT on Target, contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets fluctuate, and investment involves risks. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.