机构已提前抄底，比特币7万美元是牛回起点还是局部高点？

原创 ｜Odaily 星球日报（@OdailyChina）

作者｜Golem（@web3_golem）

Bull market is back. In the early morning of August 20 Beijing time, Trump's favorable remarks at a White House gathering of cryptocurrency industry executives pushed Bitcoin above $70,000, with a 24-hour gain of over 10% (Related reading: After the crypto surge overnight, what exactly did Trump say?). With the "Crypto President" returning, the lackluster phase for Bitcoin is coming to an end. After today, many retail investors may also shift more attention and capital from AI stocks back into the crypto market.

However, traditional financial institutions and asset management giants, always "one step ahead," had already completed their Bitcoin accumulation before Trump's favorable news arrived. According to 13F quarterly reports disclosed by major institutions, in Q2 2026, despite Bitcoin falling 14%, institutional holdings increased by 7.5%, indicating that institutions were continuously expanding their positions before the market recovery.

Who are these institutions quietly increasing their Bitcoin exposure? Will we see Bitcoin below $65,000 again, and has the bear market bottom been confirmed? Odaily will outline in this article the institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings, as well as their views on Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Institutions Increasing Bitcoin Exposure

The primary avenues for institutions to increase Bitcoin exposure are spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin treasury company stocks.

Q2 2026 Institutional Bitcoin ETF Holdings Increased 7.5%

Looking at the overall data first, according to Bitcoin analyst Root, in Q2 2026, total ETF holdings decreased from 1,297,010 BTC to 1,211,322 BTC, down 6.6%, but institutional holdings increased from 498,389 BTC to 535,723 BTC, a growth of 7.5%. The institutional share of holdings rose from 38.4% to 44.2%, an all-time high. This indicates that during a weak crypto market period, retail investors significantly reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions, while institutions continued accumulating at the bottom.

But not all institutions increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings; the increases were concentrated among top-tier institutions. According to statistics, overall, the number of institutions holding Bitcoin positions in Q2 decreased from approximately 2,000 in Q1 to nearly 1,900, a decline of about 6.8%. However, among the top 25 institutional Bitcoin ETF holders, 17 increased their positions in Q2.

This shows that for most institutions, holding Bitcoin steadfastly during a bear market is also quite challenging. Even so, according to Root's statistics, 9 institutions still made their first allocation of over 100 Bitcoin, valued at more than 100 coins, in Q2 2026.

Below, Odaily will review some of the top institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings.

Jane Street: Bitcoin ETF Exposure Increased by Approximately $600 Million, MSTR Stake Increased by Over $200 Million

As of June 30, Jane Street disclosed a total value of approximately $990 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT accounting for $828 million, or about 24.9 million shares. In Q1 2026, Jane Street disclosed a total value of only $225 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, or approximately 5.9 million shares. Compared to Q1, Jane Street's Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q2 increased by about $600 million.

Additionally, Jane Street significantly increased its stake in Strategy (MSTR), from 209,833 shares (valued at approximately $26.2 million) in Q1 to 2,677,622 shares (valued at approximately $232.76 million) in Q2, an increase of approximately 2,467,789 shares, or about 1,176%, with a value exceeding $200 million.

In summary, in Q2 2026, Jane Street increased its Bitcoin exposure by more than $800 million.

However, it's important to note that Jane Street's situation differs from typical asset management institutions. The 13F filing only discloses long common stock positions (excluding options, shorts, etc.). As a typical quantitative trading/market-making institution, Jane Street may hold short positions in Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR, so its actual Bitcoin exposure may vary. Even if its long positions cannot simply be interpreted as long-term directional bets, their scale is still quite impressive.

BlackRock: Q2 Bitcoin Exposure Increased by Approximately $290 Million

In Q2, BlackRock increased its investments in three Bitcoin-related assets: Strategy (MSTR), IBIT, and Strive (ASST).

BlackRock raised its MSTR holdings from approximately 17.75 million shares to 19,394,284 shares (valued at $1.69 billion), an increase of 1,640,399 shares (valued at approximately $238 million), a quarter-over-quarter growth of 9.24%. (Odaily note: BlackRock and Jane Street use different calculation methods; this article relies on data disclosed in 13F filings.)

Secondly, BlackRock also increased its holdings in its own spot Bitcoin ETF, adding 1,024,742 shares of IBIT (valued at approximately $41.7 million), bringing its total holdings to 15,034,046 shares at the end of Q2, valued at approximately $500 million. Finally, BlackRock also increased its stake in Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST), adding 1,636,854 shares (valued at approximately $17.86 million), an increase of 45.1%. Total holdings at the end of Q2 were 5.266 million shares, valued at $57.5 million. Strive currently holds over 20,000 Bitcoin.

In summary, BlackRock's Bitcoin exposure increased by approximately $290 million in Q2.

JPMorgan: Increased IBIT Holdings Valued at $85.6 Million

In Q2, JPMorgan mainly increased its holdings in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT, adding 2,104,944 shares (valued at approximately $85.6 million), an increase of 25.35%, from 8,302,691 shares in Q1 to 10,407,635 shares, with total holdings valued at approximately $356 million.

UBS: IBIT Call Option Exposure Grew 24-Fold in Q2

In Q2, UBS's direct holdings of IBIT also grew by 12%, reaching 407,890 shares (valued at approximately $13.6 million). The direct holding increase was relatively moderate. Although still below the level at the end of 2025 (approximately 540,000 shares), the increase from Q1 2026 (364,000 shares) suggests a growing preference for Bitcoin allocation.

Compared to direct holdings, UBS's call option exposure in IBIT grew 24-fold in Q2, from approximately 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares, while put option exposure declined by approximately 53%, from about 303,000 shares to approximately 143,000 shares.

This clearly shows UBS's bullish inclination (increasing buy rights, reducing sell rights), but the 13F filing does not disclose strike prices, expiration dates, or actual costs. Moreover, positions may include client business, market-making, or hedging activities, so they may not fully represent proprietary directional bets.

Wall Street Legendary Hedge Fund ManagerPaul Tudor Jones: Ends the Trend of Reducing IBIT Holdings That Began in 2025

Tudor Investment, the firm of legendary Wall Street hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, also increased its IBIT holdings in Q2 2026, ending the quarter with 688,529 shares (valued at $22.9 million). This represents an increase of 109,446 shares (valued at approximately $4.45 million), or 18.9%, compared to the 579,083 shares reported in the previous quarter.

While the absolute amount of the increase is relatively small, it ends Paul Tudor Jones's trend of reducing IBIT holdings that began in 2025, potentially indicating a cautiously optimistic stance on Bitcoin's future trajectory. At its peak in late 2024, Tudor Investment held over 8 million shares of IBIT, valued at approximately $427 million. Current holdings remain approximately 91% below that peak.

Harvard University Endowment: Halts Reduction of Spot Bitcoin ETF Holdings

The 13F filing submitted by Harvard University's endowment shows that as of the end of Q2, its spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT holdings remained unchanged at 3,044,612 shares, with a market value of approximately $101.4 million at the end of Q2.

Harvard's endowment had previously reduced its IBIT holdings for two consecutive quarters—from a peak of approximately 6.81 million shares in Q3 2025 (valued at approximately $443 million), down 21% in Q4 2025, and another approximately 43% reduction in Q1 2026, bringing it to current levels. While this quarter did not increase Bitcoin exposure, ending the two consecutive quarters of reduction can still be interpreted as a cautiously optimistic stance.

Do Institutions Think Bitcoin Has Bottomed Out?

Current institutional views on Bitcoin's future trajectory can be broadly divided into "the bear market is over" and "the bottom has not yet been reached."

The "Bear Market Over" Camp

With Bitcoin breaking through the $70,000 mark today, Wang Chun, co-founder of Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool, cited his own tweet from January 28, 2023, reminiscing about the bear market, and stated on X: "The bear market is over."

Compared to Wang Chun's brevity, Strive CEO Matt Cole provided a more detailed argument. He believes Bitcoin is set to experience a historic rally environment, as the U.S. dollar index has been in a structural downtrend and may be approaching a more significant downside phase. Therefore, the next 5 to 7 years could become one of the most favorable macro environments in Bitcoin's history. Matt Cole also stated that Bitcoin's current price is at a relatively low level from a historical perspective, and Strive is willing to take on risk to continue buying Bitcoin at these levels.

Standard Chartered is bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-term Treasury bond market, Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026. He noted that Bitcoin's current key technical resistance level is $65,500, and a break above this level could signal that the cyclical low for this market cycle has been formed.

A recent report from 10x Research also indicated that after months of narrow-range consolidation, Bitcoin has finally broken out. The firm stated that its preferred strategy this month is buying call options with a $70,000 strike price. These options were priced as low as approximately $300 on August 5, briefly fell to $30 three days ago, then surged to a high of $1,600, and are currently trading at around $1,300.

10x Research also noted that a better trading strategy is a call spread with $70,000/$80,000 strike prices expiring in September. This structure is more bullish while retaining some flexibility.

The "Bitcoin Hasn't Bottomed Yet" Camp

Even with Bitcoin breaking above $70,000, some cautious institutions still believe Bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom.

CZ stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that Bitcoin's "supercycle" has not yet materialized and the market remains in a bear phase, still following a relatively strict four-year cycle pattern. However, CZ acknowledged that the current period is the most industry-friendly environment in his 12 years in the business.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes that current retail demand for Bitcoin is approaching its highest level in the past two years, and historical data shows a clear correlation between growth in retail demand and local Bitcoin tops. Therefore, Darkfost suggests this may reflect retail "impatience," and there is a need to become more sensitive to Bitcoin's volatility. Adam from Greeks.live Research also comforted investors who missed the Bitcoin rally, noting that after Bitcoin broke above $70,000, implied volatility remains at 32%, with ample seller-side liquidity and many trading opportunities remaining for buyers.

A recent report from crypto asset management firm VanEck shows that while Bitcoin is currently releasing "capitulation signals" similar to the late stages of historical bear markets, the data suggests the market bottom has not yet been fully confirmed. It stated that of the 12 Bitcoin market capitulation indicators it tracks, 8 have entered extreme territory. These indicators primarily measure market stress factors such as Bitcoin price drawdowns, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders in loss.

However, historical performance does not show that these signals mean a short-term bottom has formed. VanEck data shows that when 8 to 12 indicators have been triggered simultaneously in the past, Bitcoin's average return over the next 90 days was approximately 12.8%, and over 180 days was approximately 32%, both below Bitcoin's long-term averages (15.2% for 90 days, 36.3% for 180 days). These signals only show relative superiority over a one-year cycle and therefore cannot guide longer-term operations.

Glassnode also believes that Bitcoin's on-chain structure remains in a "capitulation phase," with the cost basis of short-term holders dropping to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of approximately $75,800. Meanwhile, the relative unrealized loss in this cycle peaked at approximately 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% levels seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles. This means the market losses in this cycle are relatively shallower but more dispersed, potentially requiring a longer time to complete the clearing process.

Glassnode emphasized that any current price rebound should be viewed more as a local bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.