Phiên đàm phán Mỹ-Iran hồi sinh, giá dầu giảm xuống dưới 80 USD, tuần sau thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ sẽ đi về đâu?

Overview

This past weekend, global investors experienced a dramatic reversal. Last Friday, the sudden cancellation of talks in Switzerland caused cryptocurrency and stock index futures to plummet at the Monday (June 22) market open. However, as of this afternoon, the situation took a sharp turn: mediators Qatar and Pakistan both confirmed that high-level US-Iran negotiations at the Bürgenstock Resort in Switzerland have reached substantial progress and have moved to the next phase of technical talks. The market's tense nerves immediately relaxed, with US stock futures turning from losses to gains, Brent crude and WTI both falling below the $80 mark, and Asia-Pacific stock markets staging a broad V-shaped recovery.

This article will systematically analyze how falling oil prices reshape inflation expectations and highlight key focus points for US stocks next week, combining the aftershocks of last week's record-breaking SpaceX IPO and the hawkish policy signals from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Key Takeaways

Qatar and Pakistan confirm US-Iran talks in Switzerland made substantive progress; both sides enter a technical consultation phase under a 60-day framework.

Brent crude fell below $78.96 this week, with WTI dropping to around $76.05, the lowest levels since March this year.

Declining oil prices directly compress inflation expectations, providing breathing room for the Fed under Chair Warsh.

SpaceX (SPCX) completed its record-breaking IPO on June 12 at $135 per share, closing its first day up 19.2%. As of June 22, the stock is trading around $185.

New Fed Chair Warsh signaled hawkish policy in his first press conference; 9 FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year.

US stock futures rebounded from Monday's opening slump, with the overall weekly trend showing some recovery.

Major Plot Twist: Why the US-Iran Talks Came Back from the Brink

The entire weekend was characterized by sentiment swings enough to exhaust any trader.

Last Friday, the Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed the cancellation of scheduled US-Iran technical talks, immediately pressuring crypto and equity assets, with Bitcoin and major stock index futures seeing notable declines over the weekend. The core logic of market concern was simple: if talks break down, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz would escalate again, limiting Iranian crude oil flows and tightening global energy supply expectations.

However, on June 22 afternoon, the situation reversed. According to Al Jazeera's report, Pakistan and Qatar, acting as mediators, both confirmed that US-Iranian negotiators had reconvened in Switzerland, with talks concluding in "a positive and constructive atmosphere." US Vice President JD Vance also traveled to Bürgenstock, stating that "significant progress has been made in the past few hours."

According to the previously signed Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the core topics of this technical negotiation include: the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran ceasing funding for regional proxy forces. A 60-day negotiation window has been established, with the possibility of extension by mutual agreement.

The market reaction was immediate. After a deep correction during the Asian session, US stock index futures began to stabilize and rebound as news of the talks emerged.

Oil Below $80: What Does It Mean?

Oil price trends are the most convincing thermometer of the current macro narrative.

According to a CNBC report, Brent crude fell to $78.96 this week, closing below $80 for the first time since March this year. WTI dropped to $76.05, with a single-week decline exceeding 8.5%, nearly wiping out all accumulated gains from the US-Iran conflict period.

Real-time data from Trading Economics shows that as of June 22, WTI was quoted at approximately $77.54, with a cumulative monthly decline of over 17%, though it is still about 13% higher year-on-year.

Three core logics drive the continued downward pressure on oil prices:

First, Iranian crude oil returns to the market. Following the MoU's implementation, the Strait of Hormuz reopened for transit, and Iran has increased its crude shipments to the highest level since the conflict began. The spot discount for Iranian light crude exported to China has widened to $2.5 to $5 relative to Brent.

Second, OPEC members are collectively increasing production. Kuwait has lifted the force majeure on its production capacity, and tankers from major producers like Saudi Arabia have resumed shipments after the strait reopened.

Third, weakened Chinese demand expectations. OilPrice.com, citing analyst assessments, suggests that some of China's transportation fuel demand damaged during the conflict may not return. Rystad Energy estimates a permanent daily demand loss of approximately 200,000 to 600,000 barrels.

The direct impact of falling oil prices on inflation expectations lies in the fact that energy is a core transmission channel for CPI. If oil prices remain stable or continue to decline at current levels, it will provide the Warsh-led Fed breathing room to hold off on rate hikes, thereby supporting risk asset valuations.

The Warsh Effect: The New Hawkish Chair Makes the Market Edgy

Against the backdrop of the dramatic US-Iran talks reversal, another main storyline is equally unignorable: the policy uncertainty brought by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13, 2026, by a margin of 54 to 45 votes, becoming the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve – the most contentious confirmation vote in modern Fed history. He chaired his first FOMC meeting on June 17, stating clearly in the press conference: "We've missed our inflation target for five years. This time, we will correct it."

The key signal from this meeting came from the dot plot: among the 18 FOMC members, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year. This was the most intimidating number from the meeting, as reported by PBS News. Warsh himself deliberately avoided submitting his own rate forecast, but his hawkish stance clearly conveyed the message: inflation suppression is the priority; easing is not on the horizon.

Analysis from Charles Schwab points out that as of May, the CME FedWatch tool showed market-implied probability of a rate hike this year rising to 57%. The Fed's current benchmark rate remains in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.

In this context, the significance of falling oil prices becomes even more pronounced: if inflation shows marginal improvement due to lower energy costs, it provides Warsh with justification to "hold off on rate hikes," thereby avoiding additional pressure on equity markets.

SpaceX IPO Aftershocks: After the Biggest Listing Ever, What's Next?

Another event influencing market sentiment last week was SpaceX's public listing.

According to CNBC's IPO live coverage, SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12, closing the day at $160.95 – a first-day gain of 19.2%. The fundraising scale was approximately $75 billion, setting a record in human IPO history, with its market cap briefly exceeding $2 trillion.

However, after the feast, market rationality has clearly returned. Investing.com shows that as of June 22, SPCX was quoted at $185.00, down from the previous day's close of $191.82, hitting an intraday low of $172.11. Previously, SPCX reached an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, before correcting alongside the broader market.

Controversy mainly centers on valuation. SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while Morningstar, based on a discounted cash flow model, gives a target price of just $63. However, NewStreet Research issued a target price of $165, arguing that SpaceX holds "at least a 10-year lead" in launch capabilities.

For investors looking to participate in SpaceX-related opportunities, the MEXC platform offers trading channels for SpaceX tokenized stock (SPCXX), enabling global users to participate directly without needing a US brokerage account.

Start Trading SpaceX Tokenized Stock

Key Focuses for US Stocks Next Week

Based on the above macro background, the following nodes are worth tracking closely:

PCE Inflation Data (expected later this week): As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, this data will directly impact the probability assessment of a Warsh rate hike vs. hold. If the year-on-year PCE growth rate shows a marginal slowdown, the market could briefly breathe a sigh of relief from hawkish concerns.

US-Iran Technical Talks Progress: If the next phase of talks within the 60-day framework proceeds smoothly, it will continue to suppress oil prices and support the aviation, shipping, and consumer sectors. However, any new hiccups in the talks will quickly rekindle oil price rebound risks.

Warsh's Public Comments: Warsh has clearly stated he will streamline the frequency of Fed communications, but any public stance will still be amplified by the market. Watch for whether he further strengthens the rate hike signal.

SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance: Technically, SPCX is currently in a correction phase from its highs. The $186 to $190 range constitutes a short-term key resistance level. If overall US stock market sentiment recovers, there is room for a technical bounce.

Crypto Market Correlation: Both positive and negative news regarding the US-Iran situation this week impacted the crypto market emotionally. As macro uncertainty marginally decreases, institutional investors' willingness to allocate to risk assets like Bitcoin is expected to marginally improve.

Exclusive Opinion from MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team

The dramatic reversal in the US-Iran talks reveals a deep-seated characteristic of current market operations: the short-term effects of geopolitical events are being amplified by algorithms and high-frequency retail sentiment, but the mean-reversion speed of fundamental logic is also accelerating simultaneously.

Looking at oil price trends, Brent breaking below $80 reflects both supply-side logic and the market's repricing of the structural change "Iranian crude returning to the supply chain." However, the permanent demand-side loss from China (approximately 300,000 barrels per day) means that even if geopolitical risks are fully resolved, oil prices are unlikely to return to this year's highs, which has positive implications for the long-term downward trend of the inflation core.

At the Fed policy level, there is an inherent tension between Warsh's hawkish nature and his belief in AI productivity. In the short term, if persistently low oil prices lead to a surprising decline in CPI in the second half of the year, Warsh could easily delay rate hikes using "improving inflation trends" as a reason, potentially even paving the way for rate cuts in 2027. This path constitutes a potential positive catalyst for risk assets, especially tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The SpaceX IPO provides an important market signal: retail investors' enthusiasm for "narrative-driven" assets remains strong, even under significant fundamental controversy. This sentiment migration effect is worth watching – as SPCX retraces from highs to find support, some rotating capital may flow towards the crypto market seeking higher volatility premiums.

Our core judgment is: Over the next 2 to 4 weeks, assuming no major reversal in the US-Iran talks, macro risk appetite is expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend. Bitcoin and major altcoins have a chance to strengthen alongside US stocks, but caution is warranted regarding instant volatility from any unexpectedly hawkish statements by Warsh.

FAQ

Q1: What does a collapse of US-Iran talks mean for the crypto market?

If the talks suffer a major setback, expectations of the Strait of Hormuz closing again would push oil prices up, exacerbating inflation fears and increasing the probability of Fed rate hikes. This combination typically pressures risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as higher interest rates compress the valuation premium of high-risk assets.

Q2: Brent crude below $80 – is it a buying opportunity or a bearish signal?

In the short term, if US-Iran talks continue progressing and Iranian crude flows steadily to the market, downside pressure on oil prices persists. However, if negotiations falter again, oil prices could rebound quickly. It's recommended to use an event-driven framework to judge direction rather than purely technical analysis.

Q3: How does Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance affect the crypto market?

Higher interest rate environments typically suppress the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. However, historical data suggests the trajectory of inflation expectations themselves is more critical than the absolute level of rates. If falling oil prices lead the market to believe inflation is controllable again, crypto assets might complete a pricing recovery before actual rate hikes occur.

Q4: After the SpaceX IPO, how can I participate in related opportunities on MEXC?

MEXC offers SpaceX tokenized stock (SPCXX). Users can register an account on MEXC and trade directly, without needing a US securities account. It supports 24/7 trading with a low minimum entry barrier.

Q5: Can the V-shaped recovery in Asia-Pacific stocks continue?

Asia-Pacific markets typically show high elasticity but limited persistence in reaction to geopolitical news. If both this week's PCE data and US-Iran talks release positive signals, the rebound momentum in indices like South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei could extend into early next week. However, technical resistance at local highs should not be ignored.

Q6: Where can I trade crypto assets related to crude oil and US stock indices?

On MEXC, users can participate in oil-linked assets and US stock-related products via contract trading and tokenized stock features, with global access and zero barrier to entry for opening an account.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial consultation. Cryptocurrency and financial market trading involves high risk, and prices can fluctuate significantly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own financial situation after fully understanding the risks. The MEXC Crypto Pulse team accepts no liability for any losses incurred from relying on the content of this article.