每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)
- Quan điểm cốt lõi: Ấn phẩm biên tập kỳ này chắt lọc những hiểu biết ngành có giá trị phán đoán nhất trong tuần từ nhiều khía cạnh như tình hình vĩ mô, đầu tư & khởi nghiệp, Crypto, Web3 & AI, và thị trường dự đoán, tập trung vào các chủ đề cốt lõi như sự chuyển đổi của thị trường từ tác động của chiến tranh sang phục hồi nguồn cung, rủi ro đầu tư dưới sự thống trị của các ông lớn AI, dự đoán chu kỳ bốn năm của ngành tiền điện tử, và rủi ro tài chính đằng sau quá trình thương mại hóa AI.
- Các yếu tố chính:
- Sau khi eo biển Hormuz được mở cửa trở lại, thị trường đang bán khống rủi ro phí bảo hiểm dầu thô, mua vào các cổ phiếu hàng không, du lịch và các nước nhập khẩu năng lượng châu Á; đồng thời, các chuỗi công nghiệp như LNG và phân bón cũng đang được định giá lại.
- Ray Dalio chỉ ra rằng khi một số ít gã khổng lồ công nghệ chiếm tỷ trọng cao trong các chỉ số, nhà đầu tư nên cảnh giác với rủi ro tập trung và đề xuất xây dựng danh mục đầu tư đa dạng hóa với các tài sản có độ tương quan thấp để ứng phó với biến động.
- Dự đoán chu kỳ ngành tiền điện tử cho rằng các mảng hợp đồng vĩnh viễn không chào bán công khai, stablecoin và token hóa tài sản phát triển chậm do hạn chế chính sách; đến năm 2029, sản phẩm cốt lõi sẽ là các thị trường giao dịch tài sản.
- Ba tín hiệu chạm đáy chính từ định giá trên chuỗi của Bitcoin, vị thế chu kỳ và tỷ lệ nắm giữ của các nhà đầu tư dài hạn đều sáng lên; khu vực hiện tại được coi là cửa sổ phân bổ theo từng đợt, đòi hỏi sự kiên nhẫn và kỷ luật.
- Lĩnh vực AI tiềm ẩn rủi ro ngoại bảng khoảng 1,8 nghìn tỷ USD. Morgan Stanley cảnh báo tỷ lệ đòn bẩy của các doanh nghiệp siêu quy mô đám mây tăng vọt; nếu quá trình thương mại hóa AI không đạt kỳ vọng, tính dễ tổn thương của chuỗi tài trợ sẽ bị bộc lộ.
- Trong lĩnh vực thị trường dự đoán, cục diện đã chuyển từ cạnh tranh thị trường sang chiến tranh kênh phân phối. Với lợi thế điểm vào người dùng, Robinhood đang chuyển các lệnh từ Kalshi sang hệ thống tự kiểm soát của mình.
- Trong các hợp đồng vĩnh viễn Pre-IPO của SpaceX, thị trường trên chuỗi đang đối mặt với nút thắt trong xử lý các hành động của công ty; các cơ chế tiêu chuẩn hóa của thị trường truyền thống chưa được tái thiết lập trên chuỗi, đây trở thành khoảng trống quan trọng cho sự phát triển.
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be overwhelmed by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast amount of news to retrieve these valuable pieces of content, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and spark inspiration.
Macro Situation
After the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, What Trades Is the Market Betting On?
The conflict has largely shifted from the military front to the negotiating table. The market is transitioning from a "war shock" to a "supply recovery" mindset.
Following the strait's reopening, the market is shorting crude risk premiums, going long on airlines, cruise lines, and travel-related stocks, positioning bullish on Asian energy-importing nations, adding duration risk in bonds, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical supply chains are also being re-priced.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Ray Dalio: As AI Giants Dominate US Stocks, I Choose Not to Bet on Direction, Only Do One Thing
Technological progress itself does not automatically make related stocks equally attractive. Major technology cycles in history have typically experienced phases of excitement, crowding, volatility, and shakeout.
When a handful of tech companies command an ever-increasing weight in indices, investors need to be wary of whether they are unknowingly holding a highly correlated, high-risk concentrated exposure. Instead of continuing to chase a few leaders, a more robust approach is to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust the volatility level according to one's own risk tolerance.
Crypto 2029: The Ultimate Prediction for the Crypto Industry's Four-Year Cycle
Although the product logic for non-public perpetuals, stablecoins, and asset tokenization is sound and market demand is well-validated, external policy forces outside the industry severely constrain their development speed.
By 2029, what will remain in the public eye is the core product of the crypto industry that has been truly built through cycles of speculation: the asset trading market.
Data Deciphers the BTC Cycle: Three Bottom Signals Flash Together, Q4 Could Be a Key Turning Point?
When BTC was above $120,000, everyone believed it could go higher. But now that it's back around $60,000, with on-chain valuations, cycle positioning, long-term holder percentages, and macro variables all pointing towards a bottoming zone, the market is paradoxically lacking confidence.
The current zone resembles a periodic accumulation window that requires patience, discipline, and conviction.
Written After the SpaceX Debut: A $2.1 Trillion Market Cap, Is It Still Worth Chasing?
SpaceX jumped $150 on its first day, with a market cap of $2.1 trillion. At this stage, SpaceX's revenue simply cannot support its massive valuation.
Starlink is currently SpaceX's only profitable business. Space launches are SpaceX's flagship service.
Beyond the disconnect between actual business and valuation, the large proportion of retail IPO allocation might also be suppressing SPCX's stock price. Musk allocated 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors. A larger retail shareholding inherently means higher volatility. Retail investors might buy indiscriminately due to FOMO but also sell emotionally on minor fluctuations. Therefore, retail's primary impact is on volatility, not the eventual upside.
For investors watching SpaceX, two key dates are particularly important:
- Approximately 15 trading days after the IPO (estimated around July 6-7), there is a high probability SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq, prompting top-tier funds to buy the stock.
- SpaceX's Q2 earnings report (mid-to-late August).
The Higher It Goes, the More Dangerous? The Systemic Risk Behind SpaceX's Soaring Valuation
A gamma squeeze, where options market makers are forced to buy the underlying stock for hedging, creating a feedback loop that further drives up the price. If SpaceX follows this path, amplified by its narrative strength, limited free float, and Elon Musk's personal influence, it could evolve from a high-valuation stock into a systemic variable for the entire market.
The more dangerous part lies in indexation and passive investing. When a company's market cap becomes large enough, it gets included in major indices, passively held by ETFs, pension funds, retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, the bubble is no longer just an adventure for a few traders; it enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it climbs, the harder it is for the market to avoid it; the harder it is to avoid, the more capital tends to flow towards it.
The article discusses a structural paradox of modern capital markets: Can so-called "price discovery" still function when market mechanisms themselves can amplify narrative, leverage, and liquidity to the point of overwhelming fundamentals?
For Those Still Attached to Altcoins, Just Trade HOOD
HOOD has been rising recently amid multiple positive catalysts.
For a long time, cryptocurrency-related revenue was a significant part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price showed a strong correlation with crypto markets. Recently, however, there are signs that Robinhood is breaking its dependence on crypto revenue and decoupling from this correlation. Its stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO offerings, and new underwriting business can still support its growth.
If the crypto market returns to a bull run, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue will likely explode in tandem, and HOOD will continue to benefit from the industry's growth dividends.
Missing the Crypto Stock Wave, Korean Exchanges Forced to Chase "Meme Coins"
With the crypto market weakening and Korean crypto investors turning to stock trading, Korean exchanges reported a collective decline in Q1 2026 earnings, necessitating urgent remedial measures. However, unlike overseas exchanges that can transform into "everything exchanges" listing tokenized stocks to meet crypto trader demand, Korea classifies tokenized stocks as securities, banning crypto exchanges from such trading. It also prohibits them from offering crypto futures, derivatives, or spot ETFs.
Korea's investor protection measures have ironically pushed crypto exchanges towards the most speculative corners of the market. With revenue streams and new product lines like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets all banned, exchanges, seeking to boost trading volume, are inclined to list attention-grabbing, more speculative "meme coins."
Web3 & AI
Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in unexpired lease contracts, and tens of billions in supplier financing arrangements collectively form roughly $1.8 trillion in off-balance-sheet exposure. These liabilities exist outside the balance sheet but genuinely lock in future cash outflows. The market has yet to fully price in this risk.
Morgan Stanley warns that the leverage ratio of hyperscalers has surged from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters, with capex growth consistently outpacing revenue and free cash flow growth, while the full impact of depreciation pressure is yet to hit.
Meanwhile, private credit institutions like Apollo and Blackstone are transferring leverage to the supply chain level through SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles), creating a highly circular and opaque financing structure. If AI commercialization falls short of expectations, or enterprise customers significantly pivot to cheaper alternatives, the fragility of the entire financing chain will be exposed.
Just a Few Days into the World Cup, Some AI Prediction Models Are Deified, Others Have Failed
Large models like Qwen, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset possibilities, red card risks, key player performances, and game flow analysis.
For prediction market participants, AI's pre-match analysis is becoming another layer of reference alongside odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.
Who Gets Your AI Monthly Fee? A Diagram Decomposing the Computing Supply Chain Behind $20
This breakdown of Claude's $20 subscription cost dissects a monthly AI fee, tracing it back to the model company, cloud computing, GPUs, electricity, and the supply chain.
AI subscriptions have ongoing inference costs, so they cannot directly use the high-margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.
Related tickers/entities: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and the power supply chain.
Prediction Markets
The First "Prediction Market Concept" Stock Has Appeared!
Kalshi once announced a partnership with US online broker Robinhood, allowing the latter to offer prediction market trading services to its users, enabling bets on political, economic, and sports events. Recently, however, this relationship has taken a subtle turn. Robinhood is realizing that true scarcity might not be the market itself, but the user gateway it firmly controls. Robinhood holds a vital resource: distribution capability.
After roughly six months of accelerated development, the Rothera product is taking shape, and Robinhood has made the almost inevitable move: gradually shifting order flow originally destined for Kalshi into its own controlled system. Robinhood strategically chose the World Cup as the perfect launchpad for Rothera.
If the past few years in the prediction market industry were defined by the market share battle between Polymarket and Kalshi, the coming years might be defined by a war of distribution channels.
Also recommended: "World Cup Kicks Off: A Look at the 'Big Winners' and 'Big Losers' in Prediction Markets."
CeFi & DeFi
IOSG: On SpaceX's Listing Day, the First Real-World Test of Three Perpetual Mechanisms
Without a public spot price, how does the market price an asset? This is the core challenge for the entire Pre-IPO perpetual category.
In the SpaceX case, trade.xyz captured the on-chain market (about 96.5% of volume). Not because its oracle was smarter, but because near-zero funding costs made holding the position almost cost-free, it launched perfectly timed with the IPO catalyst, and being priced per share allowed cross-exchange arbitrage.
However, while Pre-IPO perpetuals are good at handling price, they are still primitive at handling events. Corporate actions, especially a reverse stock split after conversion, have no on-chain pipeline: trade.xyz hasn't disclosed any rebase mechanism, while Ventuals outsourced this to a single data provider, which already caused an issue (an expired split data point crashed its market by 45%). The bottleneck isn't price discovery; it's the boring "corporate action" processing layer. Traditional markets standardized this over a century; on-chain has yet to rebuild it. Whoever can credibly deliver this is filling the last gap between these markets and the ones they intend to replace.
STRC Depegs Significantly: What Risk is the Market Pricing In?
STRC has fallen to around $89, implying a simple current yield of roughly 12.9% based on an $11.50 annualized dividend.
The market disagreement isn't about whether Strategy will immediately fail to pay dividends, but how to discount BTC reserves, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competition from similar products.
Related tickers/entities: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.
STRC Depegs 11%: Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Keep Spinning?
The market's pricing of STRC reflects not only investor sentiment towards a preferred stock but also confidence in Strategy's entire capital operation model.
Within Strategy's balance sheet expansion loop, STRC is more than just a financing tool; it's the most powerful engine of Strategy's current capital flywheel. Through this loop – "issue STRC -> raise fiat -> buy BTC -> increase company NAV -> boost STRC credibility" – Strategy has built a seemingly infinite capital flywheel. However, the key prerequisite for this flywheel to function smoothly is that STRC must maintain its $100 par value.
The failure of dividend adjustments to correct the price means the market is pricing in risks beyond STRC's yield. First, superficial technical factors. Some market participants believe the recent decline largely stems from a concentrated stampede during arbitrage capital deleveraging. Deeper concerns revolve around Strategy's liquidity reserve status.
Annualized 15%-25%: Is BlackRock's Bitcoin Yield ETF an Opportunity or a Trap?
BITA leverages BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund, IBIT, by selling covered call options to generate stable option premium income for investors, at the cost of sacrificing some of Bitcoin's upside potential. This yield-generating Bitcoin fund is designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, solving the pain point of holding zero-yield assets.
Fund flows will provide the ultimate answer. If BITA and IBIT continue absorbing Bitcoin while BTC holds above $65,000, it suggests sustained institutional buying pressure. Conversely, if the yield ETF merely cannibalizes existing spot fund assets, the bearish "yield trap" thesis will be validated.
Ethereum & Scaling
Sharplink CEO: A Million Ethereum Developers – Who Can Compete?
Ethereum's core advantage isn't speed but its aggregation of the largest and deepest talent pool; its true moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built on composability, standard-setting, and credible neutrality; these builders are focused on frontier issues like scalability and quantum resistance, continuously consolidating Ethereum's position as the default operating system for the financial internet.
Week in Review: Hot Topics Catch-Up
Policy & Macro Markets
Iranian media published detailed terms of the US-Iran MOU, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds;
The US and Iran announced an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts;
The US-Iran deal was confirmed, leading to a surge in crypto and gold, while oil prices plummeted;
The Fed held rates steady as expected but adopted a generally hawkish stance, significantly revising its policy statement;
Bipartisan US lawmakers jointly proposed a bill to pressure against granting SBF a presidential pardon or
