BitMart Research Weekly: Macro, Crude Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and a Comprehensive Review of the Crypto Market
- Core Thesis: On the macro level, US employment data shows structural divergence and is distorted by model adjustments, while the systematic impact of AI on employment has not yet materialized. Crude oil inventories support prices, but demand is suppressed, with China playing a notable stabilizing role. The crypto market is driven by a recovery in broader market risk appetite, leading to a moderate bullish sentiment. Institutional buying remains measured, while stablecoin issuance provides a dual-track arbitrage demonstration for institutional self-built public chains.
- Key Elements:
- The US reported 115,000 non-farm payroll additions in April, but growth was heavily reliant on the healthcare sector (adding 618,000) and was boosted by a positive adjustment of approximately 391,000 from the "business birth/death model." Meanwhile, the household survey showed a decline of 226,000 in employment, raising questions about data reliability.
- Global crude oil buffer inventories have been drawn down by approximately 300 million barrels to around 800 million barrels, supporting oil prices near $100. However, high prices are suppressing demand. China's average daily crude oil imports fell by about 3.5 million barrels in April, and the pause in replenishment has alleviated supply-demand tension.
- AI tech stocks face short-term pressure from potential index weight adjustments due to a possible SpaceX IPO (which could trigger selling of leaders like Nvidia). The mid-term earnings season will test AI's ROI and commercialization efficiency. By year-end, the sector may face a bubble stress test driven by IPOs and the US election.
- In the crypto market, BTC prices rose from $77,000 to $82,000. Spot buying appetite is strong (robust CVD indicator), while perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, indicating persistent short positions on altcoins or ETH by some capital.
- Last week saw net ETF inflows of approximately $791 million. However, institutional buying remained measured: BMBMR bought about 26,000 ETH, below the expected 70,000, and Strategy purchased only 535 BTC at an average price of $80,000.
- Circle's self-built public chain ARC secured funding at a $3 billion valuation. The dual-track arbitrage model of "going public + issuing coins/chains" is becoming clear within the industry. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institutional self-built chains could represent the next phase of structural opportunity.
I. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets (Macro)
1. US Employment Data and the Impact of AI on Jobs
Non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, seemingly beating expectations, but the market has raised doubts about data quality. Job growth is heavily reliant on the healthcare sector, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while other sectors combined lost about 367,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, highlighting increased structural divergence in the job market.
The relatively strong April non-farm payrolls figure was significantly influenced by the "Business Birth/Death Model." This model provided a positive adjustment of roughly 391,000 jobs in April, implying that some of the new jobs were model estimates rather than survey results. In contrast, the Household Survey indicated a decline of about 226,000 actual jobs in April. This clear discrepancy has deepened market skepticism regarding the reliability of employment data.
The impact of AI on employment is beginning to attract attention. Information sector jobs decreased by approximately 30,000 in April and have been declining consistently this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, the US unemployment rate remains near 4.3%, making it difficult to conclude that AI has already caused a systemic shock to the overall labor market. Future observations are needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workforce.
2. Crude Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently remained near the $100 level. Global available crude oil buffer stocks stand at approximately 800 million barrels, of which about 300 million barrels had been consumed by the end of April. This inventory level provides support for oil prices. However, high prices are also significantly suppressing demand, with global daily oil demand dropping by roughly 2.8 million barrels in March and 4.3 million barrels in April.
China is acting as a "stabilizer" in the current oil price trajectory. China's current crude oil reserves total around 1.4 billion barrels. In April, it sharply reduced crude oil imports by an average of 3.5 million barrels per day, hitting a low point since 2024. China's pause or slowdown in stockpiling has, to some extent, alleviated the global supply-demand tension in crude oil and curbed further upward pressure on prices.
Regarding US-Iran relations, the probability of both parties reaching a phased memorandum agreement this month is relatively high. The core focus likely involves maintaining the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing conflict risk, and suppressing oil prices. In the short term, maintaining manageable tensions and preventing oil prices from spiraling out of control aligns with the interests of both sides.
3. Short, Medium, and Long-term Outlook for AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, AI tech stocks face mixed signals. Positive factors include potential marginal easing in US-China trade relations and a possible phased agreement between the US and Iran, which could improve market risk appetite. Negative factors stem from potential index weighting adjustments. If SpaceX goes public in June and is included in the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds might need to sell off top-five weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to free up weight, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders. However, lower-ranked constituent stocks like Micron (MU) could benefit.
In the medium term, the mid-July earnings season will be a crucial verification point for AI tech stocks. The market's valuation framework for AI stocks is entering the "second half," shifting from narrative-driven themes towards a greater emphasis on AI ROI (Return on Investment), commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long term, the end of the year could become a significant test period for the AI bubble. The US presidential election may bring policy disruptions. If trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic initiate IPOs, it could also drain liquidity from the secondary market. Simultaneously, if corporate capital expenditures consistently exceed their own cash flow and rely on debt financing, AI stocks could enter the late stages of a bubble, facing stress tests similar to those seen during the late stages of the internet bubble.
II. Crypto Market Trends & Ecosystem
1. Market Overview and Trading Data
The crypto market has recently been primarily driven by a recovery in overall market risk appetite, showing a moderately bullish trend. BTC price has risen from around $77,000 last week to approximately $82,000. While spot trading volume has rebounded, it remains at relatively low levels; the CVD indicator is strong, indicating clear active buying intention on the spot side, with buy-side power dominating.
On the derivatives side, open interest has increased alongside the price rise, but perpetual contract funding rates remain negative. This suggests that some capital in the market continues to short, mainly concentrated in altcoins or ETH. In the options market, the willingness of investors to buy Puts as downside protection has decreased, bearish demand has fallen, and bullish sentiment is broadening. The overall structure suggests that this rally may have moved from its early stages to the middle phase, but attention still needs to be paid to whether subsequent trading volume can increase.
Regarding large capital flows, ETFs continued to see net inflows last week, totaling approximately $791 million. BMBMR bought around 26,000 ETH, below the market's expected baseline of 70,000 ETH. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC, with an average buy price near $80,000. Overall, institutional buying momentum persists but is more moderate than anticipated.
2. Stablecoins and the Trend of Institutional Blockchain Launches
Circle's recent earnings report showed revenue below expectations, but its stock price was relatively resilient, indicating the market still recognizes its long-term narrative. Simultaneously, Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, achieved an approximate $3 billion valuation in its funding round, further clarifying the trend of stablecoin issuers extending into underlying infrastructure.
An arbitrage model is forming within the industry, characterized by a "dual-track" system of going public plus issuing tokens/chains. On one hand, projects gain compliant status, access to traditional capital market funds, and credibility by going public through traditional entities. On the other hand, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture crypto market liquidity, enjoying the dual premium of equity valuation and token valuation.
Circle has provided a relatively clear demonstration effect. Subsequently, other projects with a user base, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems may follow a similar path. For example, Telegram-related ecosystems and projects like PM have an increasing probability of capturing on-chain liquidity by launching their own chains or tokens in the future. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains could become significant structural opportunities in the next phase of the crypto market.
This article is solely a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.
