MSX ข้อสังเกตประจำวันตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ: เฟดขึ้นดอกเบี้ยครั้งแรกในรอบสามปี! Dot plot บ่งชี้ว่าอาจขึ้นอีก 25 basis points ภายในปีนี้ อัตราดอกเบี้ยสูงกลับมาเป็นแกนกลางในการกำหนดราคาหุ้นสหรัฐฯ อีกครั้ง

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Today's Watch

The Federal Reserve officially restarted rate hikes.

On September 16, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided by a 12-0 vote to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since 2023 and the first policy adjustment since Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair.

The rate hike itself was largely in line with market expectations. What truly affected asset prices was the Fed's judgment on the future interest rate path. The latest dot plot shows that the median federal funds rate projection for the end of 2026 was revised up from 3.8% forecast in June to 4.1%, implying possibly one more 25 basis point hike within the year; the median rate projection for the end of 2027 is also 4.1%, indicating that under the Fed's current baseline scenario, there may be no rate cuts next year. Of the 18 policymakers, 16 expect at least one more rate hike this year.

This is also the most important message from this meeting: the Fed is not conducting an isolated "preventive hike," but is re-establishing a tighter interest rate path.

US stocks briefly rose after the decision was announced, but as Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high and the economy is strengthening, major indices subsequently turned weaker. The S&P 500 closed down 0.44%, the Dow Jones fell 1.21%, and the Nasdaq was essentially flat. The two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.73%, the ten-year yield remained near 5%, and the dollar rose to about a seven-week high.

It is worth noting that the Fed's rate hike is not because the economy suddenly deteriorated, but because both growth and inflation are stronger than previously expected. The Fed revised up its 2026 real GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 2.3%, and lowered its unemployment rate forecast from 4.3% to 4.1%; meanwhile, the PCE inflation forecast was revised up from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the core PCE forecast from 3.3% to 3.4%.

This is a rather complex combination for US stocks: economic growth and corporate earnings still have support, but inflation makes it difficult for interest rates to fall, and stock valuations will continue to be constrained by high discount rates.

Data in a Minute

• · The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%;
• · The decision passed unanimously by a 12-0 vote, the first rate hike since 2023;
• · The median policy rate projection for the end of 2026 rose to 4.1%, compared with 3.8% forecast in June;
• · 16 of the 18 policymakers expect at least one more rate hike within 2026;
• · The median policy rate projection for the end of 2027 remains 4.1%, with no room for rate cuts next year under the current baseline scenario;
• · The 2026 GDP growth forecast was revised up from 2.2% to 2.3%;
• · The 2026 unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 4.3% to 4.1%;
• · The 2026 PCE inflation forecast was revised up from 3.6% to 3.7%, and core PCE from 3.3% to 3.4%;
• · The S&P 500 fell 0.44%, the Dow fell 1.21%, and the Nasdaq was essentially flat;
• · The two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.73%, and the ten-year Treasury yield remained near 5%;
• · The dollar index rose to about a seven-week high, and the market further priced in the possibility of another rate hike within the year;
• · Warsh believes that rising long-term yields stem not only from inflation, but also from the strengthening US economy, expanding AI and data center capital expenditures, and competition for financing among large tech companies.

MSX View

To understand this rate hike, one cannot look only at the 25 basis points, but at what has changed in the Fed's assessment of the US economy.

For some time, the market's core assumption was that inflation would eventually fall, and that even if the Fed did not cut rates immediately, it would not re-enter a hiking cycle. But the latest economic projections shattered this assumption. The Fed simultaneously revised up growth, lowered unemployment, and raised inflation and policy rate projections, indicating that policymakers believe the US economy can withstand higher interest rates, and that the current rate level is still insufficient to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner.

At the press conference, Warsh stated that inflation has been "too high for too long," and that this summer's data did not prove a substantial improvement in underlying inflation trends. At the same time, he believes the US economy has strengthened further compared with mid-year, and the job market is essentially at full employment.

Therefore, this rate hike is not aimed at rescuing the economy, but at prioritizing bringing down inflation while the economy remains strong. For the stock market, this is easier to absorb through earnings growth than an emergency rate hike during a recession, but it also means valuations can hardly continue to expand on rate-cut expectations.

The market reaction already reflects this contradiction. The Dow fell more than 1%, but the Nasdaq was nearly flat. High rates are typically unfavorable for tech stocks, because future cash flows need to be discounted at higher rates; but large tech companies are currently still benefiting from AI capital expenditures, cloud computing demand, and strong profitability, which temporarily offsets some valuation pressure.

This does not mean the AI trade can ignore interest rates.

Warsh specifically mentioned that hyperscale cloud service providers are raising funds in the market, and that AI and data center capital expenditures have increased competition for capital. In the past, the market mainly viewed AI investment as a source of revenue for Nvidia, cloud computing, and data center companies, but when capital expenditures reach a sufficiently large scale, they also drive up overall economic demand for capital and long-term interest rates.

This forms a feedback loop worth watching:

AI investment drives economic growth and productivity expectations, while increasing demand for electricity, chips, construction, and financing; stronger growth and capital demand push up long-term yields; higher yields in turn raise data center financing costs and压低 the reasonable valuations of high-valuation tech companies.

Therefore, the ten-year Treasury yield may be more important than the federal funds rate itself. The policy rate rose only 25 basis points, but the ten-year yield is already near 5%, close to its highest level since 2007. It directly affects housing mortgages, corporate bonds, M&A financing, and stock valuations, and is the true source of the current tightening in financial conditions.

For US stocks, this meeting does not amount to a full turn toward pessimism. The Fed expects 2.3% economic growth and only 4.1% unemployment in 2026, and has not adopted a recession as its baseline scenario. If corporate earnings can maintain growth, large tech companies with ample cash flow and low debt still have the capacity to absorb higher funding costs.

The real pressure may fall on companies that rely on external financing, are currently unprofitable, or have cash flows concentrated far in the future. Real estate, homebuilding, highly leveraged companies, and data center projects that require continuous financing will also be more sensitive. Banks, meanwhile, must contend with higher short-term rates, changes in the yield curve, and potential credit costs, and it cannot be simply understood as "rate hikes are necessarily good for banks."

The political dimension is also worth watching. Warsh was nominated by Trump, but this rate hike runs counter to Trump's persistent calls for lower rates, and it received unanimous support from the FOMC. In the short term, this reinforces the signal that the Fed is safeguarding its anti-inflation credibility, but it may also increase policy friction between the White House and the central bank.

What the market really needs to watch next is not whether the Fed will mechanically hike one more time, but whether the three conditions supporting this rate hike path continue to hold: whether inflation remains above 3%, whether the labor market remains stable, and whether the ten-year Treasury yield stays persistently near 5%.

If inflation does not improve markedly and the economy continues to show resilience, another rate hike within the year will become the baseline scenario, and high rates may extend into 2027. Conversely, if energy prices fall back, core inflation cools, or employment suddenly weakens, the Fed may still adjust its path.

So what this rate hike truly changes is not the interest rate level itself, but the market's pricing framework. In the past, investors discussed "when will rates be cut"; now what needs to be reassessed is "how long will high rates last, and can the earnings growth brought by AI outrun financing costs and valuation compression."

Economic growth is still present, and AI investment has not stopped, but cheap money is no longer the default condition. Companies that can continue to outperform the market in the next phase need to prove not just revenue growth, but that they can still generate sufficiently high returns on capital in a long-term interest rate environment near 5%.

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Risk Disclaimer: Macroeconomic and US stock market conditions are highly volatile. This content is provided solely for academic and research observation reference by the Maitong Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.