24H热门币种与要闻｜美联储维持利率不变；韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市（7月30日）
- 核心观点：美联储维持利率不变但内部加息压力升温，韩国加强股市监管，科技巨头（微软、Meta）财报展示AI业务增长与成本压力，币安、Robinhood等平台积极扩张加密及预测市场业务，二季度加密融资总额达128.6亿美元。
- 关键要素：
- 美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%，为连续第五次会议按兵不动，但有三名票委反对并主张加息，为2016年以来首次。
- 韩国财政部将采取限制杠杆ETF交易等措施以稳定股市，JP摩根称韩股杠杆ETF平仓过程已完成。
- 微软Q4营收900亿美元超预期，Azure云收入增速达43%且年收入首破千亿美元。
- Meta Q2营收创纪录但净利润低于预期，因AI成本担忧盘后股价跌逾6%，年度资本支出指引下限上调。
- 2026年Q2加密行业融资及并购总额达128.6亿美元，环比增长约45%，其中债务融资达43.6亿美元，成为第二大来源。
- Bernstein将Circle目标价从190美元下调至140美元，但预计到2035年稳定币总供应量将达4万亿美元，Circle约占30%份额。
- 币安bStocks总资产管理规模突破5.9亿美元，超越xStocks成为链上股票资产赛道规模最大的产品。
1. Popular Tokens on CEX
CEX Top 10 by Trading Volume & 24h Change:
- BTC: +0.69%
- ETH: +0.14%
- SOL: +0.67%
- SNDKB: -3.16%
- XRP: -0.2%
- VANA: -14.47%
- BANK: +10.00%
- SKHYB: +2.16%
- XRP: -0.4%
- VANA: -14.6%
24h Gainers (Data Source: OKX):
- ACH: +19.51%
- ASP: +18.9%
- RE: +14.6%
- AEON: +10.15%
- SENT: +6.98%
- xMSFT: +6.61%
- FLOW: +6.48%
- PROS: +6.32%
- SSV: +5.67%
- AGLD: +5.27%
24h Crypto-Stock Gainers (Data Source: msx.com):
- EDU: 15.18%
- SOXS: 14.55%
- CONI: 9.25%
- SNOW: 9.11%
- BWET: 8.38%
- MSFT: 8.05%
- MDB: 7.53%
- TSLQ: 7.59%
- NVDQ: 6.9%
- INTU: 6.73%
2. Popular Memes On-Chain (Data Source: GMGN):
- Solana: Fauci, Jimothy
- BSC: HEYI, MarsCoin
- Robinhood: CASHCAT, MarketCat
Headlines
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady
Odaily News: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. (Jin Shi)
Three Dissenting Votes Emerge, Pressure to Hike Rates Intensifies Within the Fed
Odaily News: In this rate decision, three of the five regional Fed presidents on the FOMC cast dissenting votes: Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan. All three unanimously advocated for a 25-basis-point rate hike. This is the first time since September 2016 that the Fed has seen three unanimous dissenting votes in the same policy decision, reflecting growing internal pressure for tighter policy.
Fed Chair Warsh, who supported maintaining rates, has consistently emphasized the Fed's responsibility to curb inflation. He is expected to be asked during the 2:30 AM (Beijing time) press conference why he believes continued patience remains the most appropriate policy choice. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: South Korea's Finance Ministry stated it pledges additional measures to stabilize the stock market, will take steps to restrict leveraged ETF trading, will limit retail investors' exposure to leveraged ETF investments, and will maintain a 24-hour stock market monitoring system. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: JP Morgan released a report indicating that the liquidation process for South Korea stock leveraged ETFs is complete, and hedge funds have completed 90% deleveraging. While there may be lingering effects in the coming days, the overall market is now showing investment appeal.
Dan Bin: "When there's a big drop, you must dare to buy; I just used my last bullets."
Odaily News: Today, Dan Bin said on Xueqiu, "When there's a big drop, you must dare to buy; I just used my last bullets." Previously, he had posted, "The 2x Long SK Hynix ETF is down 25.72% today. Leveraged tools can amplify gains but also multiply risks. As the tide goes out, the cruelty of market fluctuations becomes clearer. It shows that such leveraged products require extra caution."
Dan Bin believes SK Hynix has become one of the symbolic companies in this phase of the AI boom. Given the current pace of adjustment, the short-term direction will likely become clear soon. Of course, over a longer time horizon, only companies with continuously optimizing supply-demand dynamics and steadily improving profitability can navigate multiple cycles.
Industry News
South Korean Politicians Use 2x Leveraged ETFs to Criticize Government
Odaily News: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, stating that during a hearing, South Korean People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jongwook told Koo, "This country has become a casino. These products should never have been allowed into the market. I consider this a policy failure."
Balchunas noted that South Korean politicians are using 2x leveraged ETFs to criticize the government, but the bubble and correction were driven by the AI boom generating significant interest in memory chip manufacturers, with 2x leveraged ETFs merely a tool to gain exposure. He also suggested South Korea may not be the best market for 2x single-stock ETFs, as the underlying stocks lack sufficient liquidity, making derivatives more prone to negatively impact the underlying assets.
Samsung Electronics Q2 Chip Profit Beats Estimates, Says AI Server Chip Demand Strong in H2
Odaily News: Samsung Electronics reported a Q2 net profit of 71.3 trillion KRW, exceeding the market estimate of 68.5 trillion KRW; the chip division posted an operating profit of 89.2 trillion KRW.
Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit was 89.4 trillion KRW, in line with preliminary estimates; revenue was 171 trillion KRW, also meeting expectations.
Samsung stated that server chip demand will be strong in the second half of the year, and chip supply shortages are expected to continue. The memory business is expected to benefit from sustained AI infrastructure capital expenditure and broader demand for on-device AI applications.
The company noted that demand for mobile and PC chips is expected to slow, creating uncertainty for the memory business in H2. Additionally, Samsung plans to increase smartphone market share in H2, with foundry business revenue expected to see double-digit growth this year. (Jin Shi)
Microsoft Q4 Revenue of $90B Beats Estimates, Azure Cloud Revenue Breaks $100B for First Time
Odaily News: Microsoft (MSFT.O) reported strong cloud business growth and an increase in AI paid users, while investors remain closely focused on whether the tech giant's spending on data centers will pay off. Microsoft's Q4 earnings per share were $4.81, up from $3.65 a year ago and above Wall Street's estimate of $4.24; quarterly revenue reached $90 billion, above the $87.6 billion estimate, up 18% year-over-year. Azure remains one of the most closely watched metrics, considered a barometer for overall AI demand. CEO Satya Nadella stated, "Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, reflecting customer confidence that we can power their AI transformation." Azure cloud revenue was $39.3 billion in Q4, growing 43%, above the 40% estimate. Microsoft's stock rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading. Year-to-date, Microsoft's stock has fallen approximately 18%. (Jin Shi)
Meta Posts Record Revenue, but AI Costs Drag Down Stock
Odaily News: Meta Platforms (META.O) reported record Q2 revenue, but its update on AI spending plans raised investor concerns about infrastructure construction costs. Meta slightly raised the lower end of its annual capital expenditure guidance from $125 billion to $130 billion, while keeping the upper end unchanged at $145 billion. Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, but net profit was $15.8 billion, below analyst estimates. As a result, Meta's stock fell over 6% in after-hours trading. To catch up in the AI race, Meta has spent tens of billions on chip procurement, data center construction, and top talent recruitment, and recently partnered with BlackRock to raise at least $12 billion for a data center in Texas. Meta's Q2 free cash flow was $784 million. (Jin Shi)
CME Plans to Launch Futures Linked to Sports Events as a New Hedging Tool
Odaily News: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is planning to launch futures and options contracts linked to professional and college sports events. It is partnering with emerging index provider FutureSports, whose products will underpin these new CME instruments. The statement noted that the first batch of sports futures contracts will be cash-settled, with monthly and quarterly expirations, and could begin trading as early as this summer pending regulatory approval.
CME CEO Terry Duffy said in the statement: "This is not just a new product; it's about introducing true price discovery and risk management standards to an industry in dire need of change." Futures contracts are common in global financial markets, with underlying assets including stock indices and commodities. If approved, this would be a first for the sports industry. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: Benchmark partner Chetan Puttagunta posted on X, expressing confusion over Anthropic's public call for stricter regulation of AI model distillation. He noted Anthropic is currently a company valued at approximately $1 trillion with vast technical and financial resources. At the scale described, a so-called "large-scale distillation attack" should theoretically be relatively easy to identify and track. If Anthropic chooses to restrict such behavior, the real cost might not be a lack of technical capability, but rather forgoing some API revenue. "The only cost that seems necessary is reducing related API business revenue."
Previously, Anthropic and other AI companies have been focusing on the issue of model distillation. Model distillation typically involves using the output of a large model (teacher model) to train another model (student model) to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Some AI companies worry that competitors could call APIs extensively to obtain model outputs for training their own models, bypassing original R&D investment. Puttagunta's view is that the controversy surrounding model distillation in the AI industry fundamentally involves a balance between commercial interests, open competition, and intellectual property protection. For leading AI companies, finding the balance between protecting core technology and maintaining an open ecosystem will be a crucial theme in future industry competition.
Robinhood Q2 Net Revenue of $1.31B Beats Estimates, Full-Year Expense Guidance Lowered
Odaily News: Robinhood reported Q2 2026 financial results, with net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, above the analyst estimate of $1.28 billion; net profit was $573 million, up 48% year-over-year; diluted EPS was $0.62, up 48% year-over-year.
The report showed Robinhood's adjusted EBITDA was $741 million, up 35% year-over-year, above the market estimate of $629 million. Net deposits reached $21.7 billion, a record high; Gold subscribers increased to 4.8 million, up 39% year-over-year.
By segment, Robinhood's crypto revenue was $100 million, above the market estimate of $86.6 million; options revenue was $342 million, up 29% year-over-year; average revenue per user (ARPU) reached $187, up 24% year-over-year.
The company expects full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to be between $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion, below previous guidance and market expectations. During the period, Trump account registrations exceeded 7 million, with deposits reaching nearly $1.5 billion; the Robinhood Chain mainnet launched; it obtained a Singapore capital markets services license; and completed the acquisition of WonderFi.
Binance.US to Apply for CFTC License Next Month, Aims to Offer Prediction Markets
Odaily News: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X that Binance.US CEO Stevie Satoshi stated Binance.US plans to apply for a Designated Contract Market license from the CFTC next month, aiming to offer prediction markets to its clients.
Project News
Bernstein Adjusts Circle Target Price from $190 to $140, Judging Open USD Threat Will Diminish
Odaily News: Bernstein lowered its price target for Circle from $190 to $140, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the Open USD consortium, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, poses a lesser threat to Circle than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle closed at $64.32.
Q2 USDC ending supply was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1, while average supply rose to about $76 billion. The average SOFR rate fell to 3.62% in Q2, reserve yield dropped to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to about $655 million. USDC balances on Hyperliquid increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating approximately $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, with roughly $190 million directed to the exchange under a revenue-sharing agreement.
Bernstein lowered its year-end 2026 USDC supply estimate by 37% to $83 billion and its 2028 estimate to $170 billion; the 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast was cut by 12% to $602 million, and the EPS forecast was lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm predicts total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final OCC approval to establish Circle National Trust in July. (The Block)
Binance bStocks Total AUM Exceeds $590 Million, Surpassing xStocks
Odaily News: Dune data shows that bStocks total assets under management (AUM) has reached approximately $599 million, surpassing xStocks' AUM of approximately $589 million. The data indicates that bStocks' scale in the on-chain equity asset sector has further expanded, demonstrating sustained market demand and user engagement.
Odaily News: ARK Invest Head of Crypto
