精准逃顶的BTC大空头，6.4万平空反水做多

Original article by Doctor Profit

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily, Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

Editor's Note: Blogger "Doctor Profit," with 500,000 followers in the English-speaking crypto community, accurately predicted the Bitcoin top of $126,000 in 2025, heavily shorted over 100 altcoins, and consistently profited from short positions. He even predicted Bitcoin would fall to between $30,000 and $40,000.

However, last Saturday, "Doctor Profit" posted a new tweet stating he has recently closed all short positions and re-entered Bitcoin spot, planning to dollar-cost average (DCA) in the $54,000 to $64,000 range. He cites several reasons: First, market sentiment is extremely bearish, with retail investors unanimously waiting for the "four-year cycle bottom" around $40,000 to $50,000. He chooses to front-run it, believing the bottom will arrive earlier. Second, Bitcoin faces structural seismic shifts—tokenization pilots (involving BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, etc.), the advancement of the CLARITY Act, and accelerating institutional capital inflow—which are undermining the conditions for a deeper crash. Third, the crypto bear market has lasted nine months, while the stock market has just peaked, and funds from a potential stock crash could flow into the undervalued crypto market.

This post has garnered 2.3 million views on X. Below is the original content, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily. Enjoy~

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Today, I am announcing one of my most significant trading moves since I topped out in September 2025—I have closed all my cryptocurrency short positions.

Bitcoin short positions opened between $115,000 and $125,000 are now closed, yielding substantial profits. Short positions opened between $79,000 and $82,000, with an average entry of $80,500, are also closed, similarly profitable. Over the past few months, short positions on over 100 altcoins have also been closed, once again locking in tremendous gains.

Now, I can finally bid farewell to my leisurely days. Congratulations to all friends who ignored market noise, trusted my strategic framework, and followed me from September 2025 until now!

Buying Bitcoin Spot

This marks the first time since September 2025 that I have rebought Bitcoin spot. Today, I entered the market at $64,000 as an absolute long-term position. This is my first Bitcoin purchase for long-term holding in nine months! It signals the start of a structured DCA strategy, which I will execute with the same discipline I used when topping out.

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy

All friends who followed my strategy in the $115,000 to $125,000 range clearly remember how it worked. Whenever Bitcoin traded within that range, I sold 10% of my spot holdings and established short positions. I didn't care whether Bitcoin's price was $116,000, $120,000, or $124,000.

Now, I am doing the exact opposite. As long as Bitcoin is between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy Bitcoin spot daily with 5% of my planned capital. This time it's not 10%, but 5%, as I want to extend the DCA cycle longer! If Bitcoin sits at $62,000, I buy; if it drops to $58,000, I buy again; if it falls to $56,000, I buy more; if it flashes down to $54,000, I buy more aggressively. Even if it returns to $64,000, I will still buy. As long as Bitcoin remains within this range, I will buy 5% of my total capital daily, continuing for 20 days.

Technical Range & Sentiment Reversal

A classic indicator—the 200-week moving average (MA200)—sits right in this zone and is currently being tested from below. Bitcoin touched the lower boundary of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns here.

More importantly, market sentiment has completely reversed.

I must say, shorts far outnumber longs right now, and I hate being part of the "majority." The same people who were shouting for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for a drop to $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000, and $38,000. Retail investors are, once again, all standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them a perfect entry point.

Front-Running the Herd

Ever since I marked the $40,000 to $50,000 range as a deeper bear market target, most of Crypto Twitter has been parroting my talking points. They copy everything, but the market is not blind. The market knows retail investors are holding cash, waiting below $50,000; it knows people are afraid to buy at $64,000.

I won't follow the crowd, begging the market for the same price as everyone else. I will front-run it. The next few trades will push the price higher, creating a chain reaction, and those waiting for a lower price will be left waiting forever.

The fact that the four-year cycle worked at the top doesn't mean it will work the same way at the bottom. Everyone is now waiting for September or October, as if the market has marked the bottom on its calendar. Do you realize how absurd this is? Ask others when they plan to buy, and they will tell you September or October. Ask them why, and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. This is textbook herding behavior.

What if the actual cycle isn't exactly four years? What if it's three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date everyone is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicators to justify the same timing. That alone is enough to panic anyone waiting for the four-year cycle to play out. The market doesn't reward people for memorizing calendars. I am not bullish on a four-year cycle bottom. It won't happen. The bottom will come much sooner.

Structural Shifts Behind Bitcoin

The deeper reasons for this change are not technical but structural. The environment surrounding Bitcoin is transforming at a speed most have yet to comprehend.

Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure, and institutional adoption are advancing in sync. The legal framework currently being built has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars in institutional capital that has been waiting on the sidelines or parked in the stock market, awaiting certainty. Combine this with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, and the Bitcoin market we face today is no longer the one from six months ago. The CLARITY Act is expected to pass by August 10th, depending on the Senate vote—this is no small matter. There is a reason the world is now in a full-fledged race to regulate crypto.

BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have all joined the DTCC's real-time tokenization pilot project. Microsoft stock, SPY, QQQ, and US Treasuries are currently being tested as tokenized securities, with a full launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries are being brought on-chain. The world's largest institutions are adopting blockchain rails, while retail investors are still debating whether the bear market is over. Furthermore, Citadel just injected $400 million directly into Crypto.com at a $20 billion valuation.

Before the public understands, the biggest players are deploying massive capital. The infrastructure is being built right in front of everyone, and my capital will move with the world's largest capital flows, not after them.

Regarding the Stock Market Crash

I will keep all my S&P 500 short positions. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same asset class; they are in different cycle phases. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and has lasted nine months. During this period, the stock market remained resilient. Bitcoin plummeted 52% from $125,000 to $60,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit all-time highs.

Crypto has already undergone its revaluation, while stocks remain overvalued. Therefore, the crypto market is highly likely to benefit from a stock market crash, as funds flow from overvalued assets to undervalued ones. Against the backdrop of the tokenization boom, stablecoin discussions, and the CLARITY Act, these funds are highly likely to flow into the crypto market.

One More Thing

I explicitly predicted a Bitcoin target of $40,000 to $50,000. When Bitcoin was at $120,000, I predicted $60,000; when it hit $60,000, I said $40,000 to $50,000 was coming.

However, when every trader on X starts waiting for the same price, the market almost never actually reaches it. Six months ago, no one predicted Bitcoin would fall below $50,000. Now, almost every account predicts it. This is precisely the moment a target is 'taken off the table.'

I now believe we will not see the $40,000 to $50,000 level in this cycle. The market structure that was supposed to bring that price level is being dismantled by the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the influx of the world's largest capital.

A good trader must adapt his views based on reality. This is precisely why shorting at $120,000 made me a fortune, and it's also why I am now starting to DCA while others are waiting for a bottom they've been hoping for, a bottom that will never come in the way they expect.

The masses have turned extremely bearish, and the conditions for a deeper crash are beginning to crumble in the face of regulatory and tokenization revolutions. I would rather start building my position before the public understands this shift than chase Bitcoin at higher prices after confirmatory signals appear. Move first, before the masses wake up.