8000 BTCไม่สามารถพยุงราคาหุ้นได้ การแบ่งหุ้นแบบกลับด้านจะช่วยกู้ชีพ American Bitcoin ได้หรือไม่?

Original Author: Liam Akiba Wright

Original Compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

American Bitcoin's treasury asset strategy faces a contradiction: while the company's Bitcoin reserves continue to grow, its stock price keeps weakening. 

The company, closely tied to Eric Trump, recently disclosed its Bitcoin holdings increased from over 7,000 coins at the end of Q1 to 8,000 coins. Simultaneously, the company announced a 1-for-15 reverse stock split, consolidating every 15 existing shares into 1 new share. A reverse split only raises the per-share trading price without changing the company's overall valuation; the total market value of an investor's holdings remains unchanged at the moment of the split.

The split took effect after the market closed on July 2, with the new shares beginning adjusted trading on Nasdaq on July 6. On one hand, there is a massive reserve of 8,000 Bitcoins; on the other, the market is no longer willing to pay a premium for the company's valuation. Even after the reverse split, the company's valuation can only stabilize if there is sustained capital inflow acknowledging the growth of Bitcoin reserves per share and the profitability logic of its mining operations. Conversely, if the market interprets this split as a sign of weak demand for the stock and the unsustainability of the company's strategy, the valuation will face even greater pressure.

Bitcoin Reserves Should Support Stock Price, But Reality Poses Significant Hurdles

American Bitcoin has accumulated substantial Bitcoin treasury assets. 

According to its Q1 2026 financial report filed with the U.S. SEC, the company's Bitcoin holdings increased from approximately 5,401 coins at the end of 2025 to 7,021 coins as of March 31. Eric Trump, co-founder and chief strategy officer, stated at the time that the company actually held over 7,300 Bitcoins, placing it among the world's top publicly listed Bitcoin holders.

The financial report also disclosed that the company mined 817 Bitcoins in Q1 and acquired an additional 803 Bitcoins over the counter. Even though the price of Bitcoin fell about 22% quarter-over-quarter, the gross margin of the mining business remained above 50%, with the cost per Bitcoin mined dropping to $36,200.

This operational model is important. Most public companies with Bitcoin treasuries rely solely on issuing new shares to raise capital for buying coins. In contrast, American Bitcoin leverages its mining business to acquire Bitcoins at a cost lower than the market spot price, and can add to its holdings when capital and market conditions allow.

However, this financial report also exposed a fundamental issue: simply hoarding Bitcoin reserves is insufficient to support the stock price. 

In Q1, the company generated $62.1 million in mining revenue but reported a net loss of $81.8 million, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $91.3 million, and digital asset impairment losses as high as $117.2 million. Although the company can continuously produce and accumulate Bitcoins, investors must weigh whether these incremental reserves justify the current stock valuation.

The milestone of holding 8,000 Bitcoins strengthens the narrative of the company's reserve assets, but it fails to resolve the multiple bearish factors affecting its stock price.

American Bitcoin stated that the primary purpose of this reverse stock split is to raise the per-share price of its Class A common stock to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. An 8-K filing submitted on June 22 shows that shareholders initially approved a reverse split ratio range of 5:1 to 40:1. Following the annual shareholders' meeting, the board of directors finalized a 15:1 split ratio.

In its proxy statement, the company also outlined several risks associated with this split:

• The stock price increase may not match the reduction in total shares outstanding;
• The split may not attract new investors and could be interpreted negatively by the market;
• Liquidity could further decrease, increasing transaction costs for investors holding fractional shares.

These risks significantly diminish the market appeal of the positive news of holding 8,000 BTC. Even as the company continues to accumulate Bitcoin, once investors determine that the company's valuation should be lower, the stock's performance in the secondary market will continue to weaken.

For publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin treasury assets, the stock price is a lifeline: a stable and rising stock price allows the company to issue new shares at favorable terms to raise capital, thus enabling further Bitcoin accumulation.

The proxy statement also revealed a second key risk factor: after the reverse split is completed, the company's total authorized share capital remains unchanged. While the number of outstanding shares will decrease, the upper limit of shares the company can issue will remain the same, reserving a large number of shares for future issuance. The company stated these shares could be used for financing, mergers and acquisitions, and other corporate needs. At the same time, it warned that future issuances would significantly dilute the equity of existing shareholders.

Even if the company does not immediately proceed with an issuance, the mere market expectation of a likely future equity offering will continuously suppress the stock's performance.

Stock Valuation is the True Test

The core question for the market now is: does buying this stock offer additional value compared to directly holding Bitcoin or choosing other simplified Bitcoin investment products?

The bullish argument is that American Bitcoin is continuously accumulating Bitcoin, its mining profit model is stable, dilution from new issuances is controllable, and market liquidity will gradually recover after the split. In this scenario, the reverse split is merely an awkward but manageable episode in the long-term strategy of hoarding coins.

The bearish case is equally clear. If liquidity remains weak, the stock will continue to trade like a struggling small-cap company. Alternatively, if future financing offsets the benefits of reserve growth, the significance of the 8,000-Bitcoin milestone will be greatly diminished.

Investors can acknowledge the company's massive Bitcoin reserves while simultaneously downgrading its overall valuation. As of July 12, the spot price of Bitcoin was slightly below $64,000, nearly 50% below its all-time high in October 2025, reflecting a highly fragmented risk appetite across the entire crypto market. In this environment, the market will not automatically grant a valuation premium simply because a company accumulates Bitcoin. The company must prove that holding its stock provides incremental value that direct Bitcoin purchases cannot offer.

American Bitcoin's core differentiating advantage lies in its ability to perform large-scale mining and acquire coins at a low cost. However, the key pressure point is whether this model can sustain accumulation without issuing new shares, thus avoiding dilution of existing shareholders.

The upcoming tests are: first, whether the stock's trading volume and liquidity can stabilize; second, whether the company will release detailed documents explaining the custody and holding methods for its 8,000 Bitcoins; and third, whether future financing actions will increase Bitcoin holdings per share, rather than simply buying assets with newly issued capital.

This company serves as a stress test for the entire crypto treasury sector. The political label associated with Trump can attract market attention, and continuous Bitcoin accumulation can strengthen the narrative of treasury assets. However, these factors cannot solve the core underlying problems. The fact that the company needs a reverse split to maintain its exchange listing status already exposes fundamental weakness in its business.

If capital continues to endorse the company's reserve expansion logic, the market will view this split as a short-term pain, and the company may be able to continue growing its Bitcoin balance sheet. However, once buying pressure fades, the 8,000 BTC holding milestone will be recognized by the market as a turning point that highlights a severe divergence between Bitcoin reserves and the company's stock price.