BIT Research: Why Are Stocks Hitting Record Highs While Gold and Bitcoin Are Falling?
- Key Insight: Since 2025, the market has been alternately dominated by three major macro catalysts—Fed interest rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI investment boom—leading to a significant divergence in the performance of the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently approaching a cyclical bottom, and a warming macro environment after September is expected to drive a renewed rally in related assets.
- Key Factors:
- Significant Asset Divergence: S&P 500 up 9%, gold down 6%, Bitcoin down 31%, a clear decoupling among traditionally correlated assets.
- Fed Policy Pressure: Expectations for rate cuts have completely reversed. The hawkish stance at the June FOMC meeting has weighed on liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.
- Geopolitical Shock: The US-Israeli strike on Iran triggered a spike in oil prices, pushing Bitcoin down to $60,000 and breaking the traditional safe-haven pattern.
- AI Narrative as the Main Theme: Anthropic's annual revenue exceeded $30 billion, and NVIDIA invested in Marvell, driving a significant rally in the Nasdaq index.
- Slowing Trading Momentum: Since June, corporations have focused on AI costs, coupled with the market entry of Chinese open-source models. Bitcoin fell back to $63,000 after May's CPI data exceeded expectations.
The market is currently in a repricing phase driven by multiple macro catalysts. So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen by 9%, gold has fallen by 6%, and Bitcoin has dropped by 31%, showing a clear divergence among these three asset classes that traditionally exhibit some correlation. Factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and AI infrastructure investment have successively become dominant market narratives, constantly reshuffling the pricing logic for risk assets.
Currently, asset performance is no longer determined by a single factor but is instead continuously repricing around new catalysts at different stages. This has ranged from the Fed's hawkish stance, to the escalation of the Iran conflict, and then to the AI infrastructure investment boom.
The Fed and War Dominate the Market: Liquidity Expectations Weigh on Risk Assets
Since the beginning of the year, the biggest shift in the market has come from a reversal in expectations for Fed policy. Following Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, the market began to price in a more hawkish monetary policy, completely reversing expectations for three rate cuts throughout the year. Subsequently, the June FOMC meeting further confirmed the hawkish stance, keeping liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin under sustained pressure.
Simultaneously, military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and a stock market pullback. Gold also declined, with markets speculating that central banks in the Middle East might prioritize funds for reconstruction financing rather than continuing to increase gold holdings. Bitcoin also fell to $60,000 under heavy liquidation pressure, breaking its historical pattern of performance during geopolitical conflicts.
AI Narrative Takes Over: From Infrastructure Hype to Slowing Trading Momentum
As the conflict de-escalated, market focus quickly shifted towards AI infrastructure. NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, and Anthropic's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) surged past $30 billion, surpassing OpenAI's previously disclosed $20 billion ARR. This propelled the relevant Nasdaq index from 23,200 points to 30,500 points, establishing AI as the new market theme.
However, entering June, the momentum of AI trades began to wane. The "tokenmaxxing" trend subsided as companies focused more on token usage costs. Chinese open-source models accelerated their entry into the market, OpenAI postponed its IPO to 2027, and Meta planned to sell surplus AI computing power, leading the market to reassess AI investment returns. Meanwhile, the US May CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, exceeding expectations, and Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows, reducing holdings by $9 billion worth of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price subsequently fell back from $82,000 to around $63,000, once again demonstrating its high sensitivity to inflation and Fed policy expectations.
Overall, the market has experienced three core catalyst shifts this year—Fed policy, geopolitics, and the AI narrative—driving a clear divergence among stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Looking ahead, we believe the Fed's hawkish stance may gradually reverse after the summer. Gold has already entered technically oversold territory, while Bitcoin is approaching its cycle bottom target range of $50,000 to $55,000. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, a recovery in AI usage demand, and cooling inflation expectations, gold, Bitcoin, and AI-related trades are all poised to regain upward momentum.
The above represents partial views from BIT on Target, contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
