Investment Guru Bill Ackman: Sold Alphabet, Increased Position in Microsoft, Betting on AI Infrastructure

Edited & Compiled by: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Bill Ackman, CEO and Founder of Pershing Square Capital Management

Host: Nicole Lapin, Money Rehab

Podcast Source: Money News Network

Original Title: Which Companies Bill Ackman Is Bullish and Bearish on Right Now

Release Date: July 20, 2026

Conflict of Interest Statement: Pershing Square manages approximately $14 billion in assets, holding a concentrated portfolio of 11 US stocks, with revenue derived from management fees and performance incentives. This episode discusses market trends and individual stock judgments; Ackman himself does not hold Bitcoin or gold. The interview includes promotional content for PSUS (a publicly traded fund under Pershing Square).

Key Takeaways

Bill Ackman manages one of Wall Street's most concentrated hedge fund portfolios: $14 billion riding on just 11 stocks, with the top five positions making up 78%. In this interview, he revealed some specific moves: he just sold Alphabet, added $2 billion to Microsoft, betting on the hyperscaler AI infrastructure wave. He didn't make it sound overly complex; the core logic boils down to a few words: buy companies with strong predictability and earn compound interest. His biggest concern for the market isn't high valuations, but highly leveraged players being forced to exit en masse at some point. Regarding Bitcoin and gold, his exact words were, "I don't know if it's worth $50,000, $70,000, or $5,000 or $1 trillion, but I don't need to know. Investing only requires knowing what you know and what you don't."

Highlights of Key Insights

AI is the Main Theme; Everything Else is Noise

• "This is a very special point in history. AI is driving a tremendous amount of entrepreneurship, providing access to intelligence at extremely low cost to a very broad population."
• "The biggest companies are competing to build models leading to superintelligence. They are grabbing land, building data centers, and filling them with GPUs. It's a land grab."
• "I'm less willing to bet on frontier model companies. Open-source models are getting better and better. Soon, people will be able to get models sufficient for solving most problems at low cost or for free."

Every Stock in the Portfolio is Carefully Selected

• "There are some companies we've always wanted to buy but were too expensive before—Amazon, Meta, Uber, Microsoft are all on that list. A lot of money is chasing 'the new new thing'—semiconductors, memory, wherever the profits are. We focus on areas that can deliver high compound returns over the next three to five years."
• "Uber is very cheap now because the market thinks Tesla's robotaxi will disrupt it. I think consumers will still open the Uber app to get a ride. They want the cheapest, fastest car to get them from A to B."
• "Want to know which giant will win? SpaceX is the only place where you can rent 100,000 GPUs, and the returns are extremely high. My only concern is the price. At a $6-7 trillion market cap, the imagination room shrinks."

No Bitcoin or Gold Because They Are Speculation

• "Satoshi Nakamoto is a genius. If I had read the whitepaper when Bitcoin was 20 cents, I might have bought some. But I don't buy it because it generates no yield. A business has value because it generates future cash flow. Gold and Bitcoin are only worth what someone else is willing to pay. That's not investing; that's speculating."
• "I've indirectly invested in blockchain companies through some VC funds, and I'm technically very interested. But trading various coins is not my thing."

What the Market Fears Most is Not High Valuations

• "The market isn't cheap in some places, but looking at the overall PE and saying it's expensive isn't very meaningful. The top companies today—Nvidia, Microsoft, Google—are of much higher quality than the top companies 20 years ago, and they deserve higher valuation multiples."
• "My biggest concern is the sheer number of leveraged players in the market. If there's some kind of external shock and people panic and sell, those with leverage will be forced to liquidate, triggering a chain reaction. If you don't use leverage and hold good companies, and you don't need the money tomorrow, then a big drop is actually a buying opportunity for you."
• "Don't borrow money to buy stocks; that's how you get wiped out. Carl Icahn leveraged his own stocks, and his $20 billion net worth turned into $3-4 billion. Even rich people can lose big money."

Don't Trade Daily Options

• "I don't like this trend of day trading options. It's just gambling. No one can predict whether a stock will go up or down in a single day unless they have inside information. It's a crazy game."

"We Don't Predict the Future; We Just Notice Things Others Don't"

Nicole Lapin: Your actions in 2008 made it seem like you could foresee the future. What did you see?

Bill Ackman: Foreseeing the future is often just careful study of the present and finding similar cases in history. In the years before 2008, we saw companies doing crazy things: bond insurers, holding AAA ratings as good as government credit, were guaranteeing high-risk mortgage loans, collecting premiums, and reporting all profits on their books. It was unsustainable. It wasn't predicting the future; it was seeing a problem in the present and knowing it would eventually blow up.

As for the future, markets will always fluctuate. I don't know the specific trigger, but there's a lot of speculation in the market, with both professional investors and retail using massive leverage. If I can give you just one piece of advice: don't borrow money to buy stocks. Also, don't use the money you need to live on to bet on sports.

How These 11 Stocks Were Selected

Nicole Lapin: Pershing Square only holds 11 to 12 stocks. Why is it so concentrated?

Bill Ackman: We look for the best businesses in the world that can stand the test of time, at least not be disrupted by AI, and ideally, be beneficiaries of AI.

Our portfolio has some companies we've always wanted to buy but were too expensive until recently. Amazon, Meta, Uber, and Microsoft are all on that list. A lot of money chases areas where the market has recently made money, like semiconductors and memory. We focus on assets that can deliver high compound returns for us over the next three to five years.

Brookfield fits this model perfectly. It does asset management—private equity, real estate, infrastructure, especially power and energy-related businesses. The data center construction boom will require massive infrastructure, and Brookfield is right in that position. They manage money for others, collecting fees and equity. It's a great business.

Nicole Lapin: You recently bought $2 billion worth of Microsoft while selling some Alphabet. Have you lost confidence in Alphabet?

Bill Ackman: Two things are very important to us: business quality and price. We want to buy at a price that offers an attractive return. Sometimes a stock we own rises to a level where its future return is below our threshold, so we sell. Selling Google isn't because we don't like it. Google is still a great company. It's just that its price reached a point where the subsequent return wasn't as good as putting that money into Microsoft.

Microsoft is currently around $387 per share. If you want to buy Microsoft at $310, you don't have to wait for it to drop to that price; just buy PSUS. PSUS is a publicly traded fund we manage, currently trading at a 22% discount to its net asset value. This basket holds Microsoft.

Ackman's Biggest Bulls and Bears

Nicole Lapin: Let's play a game called "Bullish or Bearish." Gold?

Bill Ackman: No opinion. I don't buy gold, although I've bought jewelry for my wife. My dad bought gold many years ago, around the 1970s, and still holds it. It's not a great investment. I told him to sell it when gold went over $4,000, and he listened. I'd rather own businesses that can compound.

The problem with gold is its value is whatever someone else is willing to pay. It pays no return. Every asset I invest in generates some kind of yield: profits, dividends, rent. I only see gold as speculation, not investment.

Nicole Lapin: What about Bitcoin?

Bill Ackman: I don't buy it either. Very similar to gold. Satoshi Nakamoto is a genius. If I had read the whitepaper when Bitcoin was 20 cents, I might have bought some. But I don't know if it's worth $50,000, $70,000, or $5,000 or $1 trillion. The beauty of investing is you don't need an opinion on every category. You just need to know what you know and what you don't. I don't understand Bitcoin or gold, so I don't touch either.

I've indirectly invested in companies focused on blockchain and crypto through some VC funds. Technically, I'm very interested. But trading various coins is not my thing.

Nicole Lapin: What about Chipotle?

Bill Ackman: One of our most successful investments. We bought in during its food safety crisis and helped recruit Brian Niccol. He later went to Starbucks, and the incoming management faced some challenges. I think the company is in a good position long-term, but I don't have a strong directional view on the stock price at this stage.

Nicole Lapin: Starbucks?

Bill Ackman: They have a very talented CEO in charge. But over a long period, Starbucks pushed prices to quite a high level. I don't think there's much room left for price increases. The consumer experience has also declined, and Brian is trying to pull it back.

Nicole Lapin: Treasury bonds?

Bill Ackman: Treasuries are a place to park cash. But if I had to choose, I'd rather hold high-quality companies long-term instead of treasuries.

The Risks He's Really Worried About

Nicole Lapin: What's the next crisis? Will there be a second 2008?

Bill Ackman: There's always something to worry about. First, the U.S. government spends more than it takes in. We have about $34 trillion in national debt and keep issuing more bonds to cover the deficit. To make matters worse, the AI infrastructure boom means many companies are also issuing debt to raise capital, causing a surge in demand for credit, while the government itself is issuing even more Treasuries. This massive supply needs to be absorbed by investors, potentially leading to higher interest rates.

The second risk is more damaging: there are too many leveraged players in the market. If some external shock comes out of nowhere, people panic and sell. Those who borrowed money will face forced liquidations, and a chain reaction will drag more people into selling. Stock prices could fall a lot.

But if you run a portfolio without leverage, holding a group of high-quality companies, and you don't need the money tomorrow, this is your buying opportunity. If you carry margin debt, you'll be forced to liquidate at the bottom, which is the last thing you want to do.

Buffett's secret is longevity. He designed Berkshire Hathaway so it would never face a margin call, allowing it to compound continuously. We've had years where we were up 30%, 40%, and years where we were down. We're slightly down this year, and that's fine. You don't need to make money every year. You need to survive and let good companies compound.

Nicole Lapin: Is the overall market expensive right now?

Bill Ackman: Some areas are expensive. But broadly saying the market's PE is 21 now versus a historical average of 17, so it's overvalued—that kind of talk isn't very useful. Market value depends on future earnings, and earnings have been consistently beating expectations, growing faster than most historical periods. Moreover, the largest companies today—Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta—are of far higher quality and growth than the top companies 20 years ago. They deserve higher valuation multiples.

If Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are cheap, it's hard to say the entire market is expensive.

A Roadmap for Young People

Nicole Lapin: If someone has $1,000 to invest right now, how would you suggest they allocate it?

Bill Ackman: Find a few companies that don't use a lot of leverage, that you like, admire, and always seem to make sound decisions. And you must be convinced: if the stock market closed tomorrow for ten years, you'd still be willing to hold them for those ten years.

Don't invest in the hottest thing right now. Invest in what you believe can stand the test of time. A company's value is the present value of all its future cash flows over its lifetime. You need to be confident it can survive a long time.

Where to start concretely? As a consumer, you often discover great things before Wall Street does. Many of Tesla's earliest shareholders were retail investors; institutions didn't understand how great it was. Look at products and services in your life that you admire. Can they withstand competition? Amazon—every time I want to buy a book, I go to Amazon. You might have also experienced the pharmacy hassle in New York, with everything locked behind plastic shields, needing a clerk to open them. Amazon delivers in two hours. Who can compete with that?

Nicole Lapin: What do you think of young people trading daily options?

Bill Ackman: It's just gambling. No one knows if a stock will go up or down in a single day unless they have inside information.

Nicole Lapin: What is the formula for success?

Bill Ackman: It's all basic stuff: show up on time, do a little extra that others don't, keep your word, under-promise and over-deliver. If you enter an industry,