Odaily Editorial Tea Party (July 8)
- Core view: Many industry practitioners shared their recent observations on the crypto market, prediction markets, and the US stock market. They believe that semiconductor and memory stocks are in a deep squat phase, prediction markets face complex counterparties and referee factors, while the Meme coin market is primarily a small-cap PVP game. They suggest paying attention to trend reversals and sector rotation opportunities.
- Key elements:
- Memory stocks (such as DRAM) have corrected by nearly 30%, but the cooperation between Changxin and Apple indicates supply remains tight. Long-term bullish, it is in a deep squat stage.
- The World Cup prediction market is highly complex. Strong teams ultimately win, but weaker teams perform better. Referee and FIFA interests influence outcomes. It is recommended to buy the dip during the event rather than before the match.
- STRC fell below $90, leaning towards shorting crypto-concept stocks; Circle and Coinbase are only suitable for bounce trades and require caution.
- US software stocks have recently performed strongly (Microsoft, Salesforce, etc.). It is being observed whether the rally is a dead cat bounce or a fundamental recovery.
- The Meme coin market is primarily a small-cap PVP game. Pay attention to new opportunities on the Robinhood chain, but overall difficulty is high.
- Semiconductor giants' capex plans have become a key factor. SK Hynix's US listing could provide short-term relief, but medium to long-term performance depends on earnings guidance.
- Hedge funds have been heavily buying tech stocks since last October. This momentum signal can be followed. After RKLB founder's stock sale window closed, the stock price fell, but there is upward elasticity.
This is an "unofficial" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the author shares instant thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their niche details; develops investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified—they may not be direct wealth passwords, but could just be the questions themselves; shares observations from conversations with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely improved our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is simply to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group Chat, X Official Account) to exchange ideas, ask questions, and engage in banter.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Bio: Tea pouring junior, crypto soy sauce passerby, media observer
Shares: 1. US and Korean stock market corrections. The pullback has been even greater than the 20%-25% mentioned last week, approaching 30%. Although industry analysis suggests the memory hype cycle is over and the cloud vendor hype wave is next, based on the cooperation between CXMT and Apple, I believe DRAM is still in a phase of supply shortage. I am more inclined to view memory stocks as currently in a deep squat phase.
2. Using prediction markets to copy trades actually led to heavy losses, while placing my own small bets yielded a small profit. It just goes to show you can't blindly follow. This includes matches like Argentina vs. Cape Verde and Argentina vs. Egypt. Although the strong teams ultimately won, the weak teams' on-field performances were arguably more impressive. It only proves that maximizing commercial interests for referees and FIFA is the eternal theme of the World Cup. So I am more bullish on France winning the championship. The 10 U I previously mentioned betting on France to win has already doubled.
3. STRC briefly returned above 90 before breaking down again. Currently, I am still inclined to short crypto-related stocks, especially target stocks like DAT's treasury company; Circle and Coinbase are candidates for a bounce trade.
4. In the US market, software stocks have performed relatively well recently, including Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow. It's still unclear whether this is a dead cat bounce or a genuine return to fundamentals.
Bcxiongdi (@bcxiongdi)
Bio: Sold too early, forever regretful.
Shares: 1. Meme market recovery training. In the past week, whether on SOL or BSC, there have been quite a few opportunities, but overall it remains primarily small-cap PVP. I also sold a whole basket too early myself. It's worth keeping an eye on the Robinhood chain that popped up today.
2. Played a couple of rounds in the World Cup prediction market. Feels even harder than Memes. Might try not buying before the match; if you fancy a team, wait for an opportunity during the game to buy the dip.
Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Bio: Noob, still learning.
Shares: 1. Still focused on US stocks, primarily the semiconductor correction that has captured the market's attention. The biggest uncertainty now is whether the giants will maintain their capex. SK Hynix's US listing on Friday might provide a short-term sentiment relief, but in the medium to long term, we'll have to wait for the giants' earnings reports this quarter to see how they plan their future capex. Personally, I believe market demand won't change, and I will consider buying on dips (focusing on DRAM).
2. A potential rotation signal: Since October last year, hedge funds have been heavily buying tech stocks again. Consider following suit.
3. The window for RKLB's founder to pre-arrange share sales officially closes today. The stock price also fell back to the level of the initial reduction last night. I will continue to add to my position. At this price, the small rocket has limited downside volatility and enough upside potential to be imaginative.
