保险业迎来最大竞争对手，预测市场才是“门口的野蛮人”？

Odaily资深作者

@wenser2010

2026-06-22 10:08

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Insurance industry faces its biggest competitor: Are prediction markets the "barbarians at the gate"?Free drinks at bars, housing price hedging, sports insurance… Prediction markets support customized demand.Core Thesis: Prediction market platforms (such as Kalshi and Polymarket) are encroaching on the traditional insurance sector by offering lower-cost, more transparent risk hedging tools. Covering scenarios like sports insurance, housing price hedging, and small business operational risks, this marks a fundamental shift in the risk transfer model.Key Elements:Kalshi partnered with sports insurance broker Game Point Capital to offer performance bonus hedges for NBA teams. Its pricing (e.g., 6%) is significantly lower than the traditional market (12-13%), and it is expected to process tens of millions of dollars.Polymarket partnered with real estate platform Parcl to allow users to make monthly/quarterly predictions on housing price index movements in major U.S. cities. Sellers can hedge against price drops, while buyers can hedge against price increases.The Jeffrey, a New York bar, invested $5,000 on Kalshi predicting a Knicks game win to offset the cost of a "customer free drinks" promotional event, achieving a win-win for risk transfer and marketing.Kalshi explicitly positions itself as a "small business insurance provider," offering hedges against risks related to weather, sports, and policy. This serves as a replacement for expensive and inefficient traditional insurance, suitable for industries like hospitality and retail.The insurance value of prediction markets is superior to traditional gambling: broader market scope, flexible exits; platform neutrality without being counterparty to users; transparent transaction information; and opposition to the user access model of "prohibition or bankruptcy."Challenges include insufficient liquidity, unclear regulatory boundaries (e.g., the insurance function of Kalshi/Polymarket has yet to be recognized), and decentralized risks (e.g., fraud cases involving using hairdryers to manipulate weather prediction machines).

สรุปโดย AI

ขยาย

核心观点：预测市场平台（如Kalshi、Polymarket）正通过提供成本更低、透明度更高的风险对冲工具，侵入传统保险业领域，覆盖体育保险、房价对冲、小型企业运营风险等场景，标志着风险转移模式的根本性转变。
关键要素：
1. Kalshi与体育保险经纪商Game Point Capital合作，为NBA球队提供绩效奖金对冲，其定价（如6%）显著低于传统市场（12-13%），预计处理数千万美元资金。
2. Polymarket与房地产平台Parcl合作，允许用户针对美国主要城市房价指数涨跌进行月度/季度预测，卖方可用于对冲房价下跌风险，买方则可对冲上涨风险。
3. 纽约酒吧The Jeffrey在Kalshi上投入5000美元预测尼克斯比赛获胜，以此对冲“顾客免单”营销活动的成本，实现风险转移与营销双赢。
4. Kalshi明确将自身定位为“小型企业保险提供商”，通过面向天气、体育、政策等风险提供对冲，替代昂贵低效的传统保险，适用于酒店、零售等行业。
5. 预测市场的保险价值优于传统竞猜：市场范围更广、退出灵活；平台中立不互为对手盘；交易信息透明；反对“禁止或破产”的用户准入模式。
6. 面临挑战：流动性不足、监管边界模糊（如Kalshi/Polymarket的保险功能尚待认可）、去中心化风险（如利用吹风机影响天气预测机器的欺诈案例）。

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

For a long time, the insurance industry has held a "ballast stone" position in the economic system due to its monopolistic stance. However, with the advent of prediction markets, this status quo may be about to change.

In early June, the NBA Finals concluded with the Knicks defeating the Spurs 4-1 to win the championship, bringing joy or sorrow to countless participants in the game predictions. Among those perhaps happiest was Andy Freedman, owner of The Jeffrey bar in New York's Upper East Side. Before the finals began, he launched a marketing campaign promising "all customer drinks are on the house if the Knicks win Game 1," while simultaneously placing a $5,000 hedge on the prediction market platform Kalshi. Ultimately, the Knicks won the first game, The Jeffrey bar used the prediction winnings to cover the drink expenses, and the bar's customers enjoyed free drinks — a "triple-win" ending.

This is just one example of prediction market platforms playing a role in risk hedging and property insurance. In an era where the World Cup attracts hundreds of billions of dollars in participation, the real-world insurance industry has also encountered a "barbarian at the gate."

Prediction Market Platforms Can Also "Buy Insurance" — Believe It or Not?

Yes, you read that right. To some extent, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have begun encroaching on the business territory of insurance companies, not only in conventional marketing but also in areas like sports insurance and weather disasters.

When Prediction Markets Steal Sports Insurance Clients: Kalshi Partners with Game Point Capital

In February this year, specialized sports insurance broker Game Point Capital announced a partnership with Kalshi, where the latter provides hedging for NBA team performance bonuses (e.g., playoff advancement bonuses).

As a professional company issuing hundreds of millions of dollars in sports insurance annually, Game Point Capital's shift is clearly not just to cater to the prediction market industry, but a comprehensive consideration based on business and cost factors.

From a market demand perspective, sports insurance has always existed. It is understood that since championship bonuses typically must be paid by the teams themselves, professional sports teams usually purchase insurance in advance to cover these expenses. Due to the large sums involved, teams traditionally turned to established insurance companies like Lloyd's, Munich Re, and Swiss Re for support.

From a cost perspective, prediction market platforms offer more competitive pricing. Kalshi's pricing is reportedly significantly lower than traditional over-the-counter markets (e.g., ~6% for a bonus hedge vs. the traditional 12-13%). The platform is expected to handle tens of millions of dollars in hedging funds through this partnership, a direct example of prediction markets entering the traditional insurance and reinsurance space. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described it as "a better way to hedge risk and insurance," emphasizing that "the pricing will be more transparent."

When Prediction Markets Become a "Home Price Hedging Tool": Polymarket Teams Up with Parcl to Pioneer a "New Model for Housing Speculation"

In January this year, on-chain real estate platform Parcl announced a partnership with Polymarket, integrating Parcl's daily home price index into Polymarket's novel real estate prediction market. The initial markets focused on major U.S. cities (New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Austin, etc.). Users can predict whether the home price index in a specific city will rise or fall, or hit certain thresholds, on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis.

Upon the announcement, the Parcl project's token PRCL surged over 100% that day. For Americans priced out of homeownership, they could now participate in "housing speculation" trades without actually buying a property. Realtor senior economist Joel Berner noted, "Beyond speculating on prices, homeowners and potential buyers can also use these markets to protect their market interests."

For sellers, if they fear prices might drop, they can buy "Under" on Polymarket; if prices do fall, the subsequent gains can partially offset actual property losses, acting as insurance. For buyers, or those planning to purchase a home, if they worry prices will rise, they can predict "Over," and corresponding gains could be used to cover home purchase costs.

When NBA Games Tie into Free Drinks: Cross-Industry Marketing Between a NYC Bar and Kalshi

In early June, Kalshi officially announced that New York bar The Jeffrey had placed a $5,000 prediction on "Knicks winning Game 1," with the slogan — "If the New York Knicks win, all customer tabs are on the house." Notably, the term used in Kalshi's official statement — "place a $5,000 hedge on Kalshi" (Odaily Note: insuring $5,000) — strongly emphasized the insurance value of the prediction market.

In this official press release, Kalshi also revealed a bigger ambition: to become "an insurance provider for small businesses," offering services like sports event predictions, weather forecasts, and import/export policy change predictions to hotels and motels affected by seasonal sports events, clothing stores impacted by weather-dependent foot traffic, restaurants, other commercial venues, and small businesses reliant on imported goods, thereby enabling insurance hedging.

Kalshi's Head of Business, Nicolas Hull, believes, "Small businesses face various real-world risks every day — weather, political, sports, and economic issues. Traditional insurance is too expensive and inefficient to effectively manage these operational risks. Kalshi changes this: we provide a liquid and transparent marketplace that allows any business to take corresponding actions against risks affecting their operations. This marks a fundamental shift in how small businesses handle risk."

These cases demonstrate that the insurance value of prediction markets can be widely applied across multiple fields, beyond just sports events and brand marketing. In practical applications, traditional sports betting has already seen successful precedents.

Old Wine in a New, Better Bottle: Prediction Markets' Insurance Value Lies in Transparency and Liquidity

In 2018, home appliance brand Vatti launched a marketing blitz with the gimmick of "full refund if the French team wins the World Cup," eventually ending in a farce of "tight deadlines, complex processes, and coupon cash-outs." However, it left a deep impression on many regarding "freebie marketing."

Notably, similar things had been done before.

In 2017, Houston furniture tycoon Jim McIngvale (AKA "Mattress Mack") staged a massive $12 million "refund marketing" campaign centered on the "Houston Astros winning the championship."

Five years later in 2022, "Mattress Mack" repeated the trick. Between May and July that year, he invested $10 million across six different sportsbooks in Louisiana, Iowa, and Las Vegas, again betting on "Astros winning," stating he would return "every single penny" of his winnings to the 3,000 customers who had previously participated in his furniture chain's promotional event. (Odaily Note: The promotion was for customers who purchased furniture over $3,000, offering full or even double refunds depending on participation timing).

Ultimately, the then-71-year-old "Mattress Mack" triumphed again, winning a record $72.6 million prize, setting a sports betting record at the time.

However, compared to sports betting, the "insurance" function of prediction markets has undergone significant upgrades.

First, there's the monetization of information. This brings two major benefits: (1) a broader market scope, offering a much wider "range of choices" compared to the limited options and narrow fields of traditional betting; (2) more flexible exit mechanisms. Unlike betting which only allows for monetary returns, prediction markets more directly reflect the potential impact of news changes, aiding participants in making real-time decisions.

Second, the platform's neutral role. Unlike the "platform," "house," or "whales" in sports betting, prediction market platforms act as neutral entities. They provide only the trading channel and do not act as counterparties to users.

Third, transaction information transparency. Sports betting odds are typically set by companies based on their own algorithms and internal information. Many even use a "copy-trade" model, mimicking odds changes from larger platforms. Odds fluctuations and order transaction data are extremely opaque, and event outcome criteria are often subject to disputes or insider trading (similar to sweeping late orders).

Fourth, participant access systems. In the US, most major sportsbook operators use a "ban or bankrupt" model, a business strategy that restricts high-win-rate customers while encouraging losers and casual players to trade. In 2024, legendary gambler Billy Walters, "Spanky" Kyrollos, and former casino executive Richard Schuetz co-founded a non-profit advocacy group called American Bettors Voice (ABV). Its core mission is to oppose the "ban or bankrupt" model, advocating for reasonable regulation of betting limits to ensure market fairness.

Compared to traditional sports betting, the insurance value of prediction markets is undoubtedly more attractive and secure. Jeff Yass, CEO of the prominent market-making firm SIG, previously mentioned in a Forbes interview: "Prediction markets allow parties to share risk more efficiently based on specific parameters. For example, a Florida homeowner facing hurricane risk could buy a 'parametric' contract that provides insurance protection based on the latest meteorological data when wind speed exceeds a certain threshold. This can manage potential property loss risk more effectively than buying annual insurance."

Of course, currently, the insurance value of prediction markets is not yet fully developed or widely adopted, facing the following issues:

Insufficient liquidity. A wide range of choices doesn't guarantee sufficient market depth.
Ambiguous regulatory boundaries. Whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket can sustainably serve an insurance function still awaits regulatory approval.
Decentralized democratic risks. The Polymarket weather prediction incident, where someone used a hairdryer to influence observation equipment for profit, is a case in point. Sometimes, event judgment standards can be influenced by unpredictable external forces or platform rule loopholes.

Regardless, the first step has been taken. Whether the insurance industry acknowledges it or not, prediction market platforms threaten not just sports betting platforms, but also many traditional insurance companies.