每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0620-0626）

The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column sifts through the vast sea of information to bring you this valuable content, filtering out the noise to leave you with insights and inspiration.

Macro Situation

Yen Approaches 40-Year Low: The Bank of Japan Has Raised Rates to 1%, So Why Can't It Stop the Slide?

This time, both lines of defense—rate hikes and intervention—have failed simultaneously.

There is a growing consensus within the Bank of Japan that 1% is still not enough. But the market doesn't believe it will dare to hike further. "Intervening in the exchange rate without changing domestic monetary policy is like slamming on the brakes with your right foot while keeping the accelerator floored—the best-case scenario is the passengers feel a few bumps; the worst case is the brake pads burn out completely." This is exactly the current situation.

The BOJ is in a dilemma: if it doesn't raise rates, the yen continues to fall, worsening imported inflation; if it raises rates, government debt interest payments skyrocket, making fiscal policy unsustainable.

Three variables will determine the future direction: whether the Fed will actually raise rates again, the actual implementation of US-Iran negotiations, and the BOJ's stance at its July meeting.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Rented Conviction: How Much of the Money Flowing into Bitcoin ETFs is Real?

Looking week by week, ETF flows are primarily driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not conviction. The weekly price change of Bitcoin can hardly explain the fund flows. ETF flows overestimate the "volatility" of conviction, not its "level." This trade has been unwinding for two years and is still ongoing.

SPCX Drops Below $150 IPO Price Pre-Market, But Don't Rush to Buy the Dip

The $20 billion debt financing was just the trigger for the decline. SpaceX's stock price is also under pressure from the global correction in AI-concept stocks, compounded by the depletion of retail buying power and the bearish news of equity unlocks being priced in ahead of time.

Why is Nvidia's Bond Issuance Fine, But SpaceX's Bond Issuance Caused a Crash?

The market is starting to re-evaluate SpaceX's future capital expenditure pressure. Meanwhile, Nvidia's strong demand for its concurrent bond issuance provides a contrasting benchmark: the AI narrative has entered the phase of revenue and profit verification, whereas SpaceX's space narrative still requires more milestone proofs.

Web3 & AI

Super Spiral Explosion: Micron's Earnings Rekindle the Semiconductor Bull Run

Compared to the market's repeated focus on HBM over the past year, a more noteworthy point from this earnings report is that AI's impact has begun to spread across the entire memory supply chain. Looking at the business structure, almost all of Micron's core businesses are growing simultaneously.

Micron has now signed 16 Long-Term Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs), covering data center, consumer electronics, and automotive clients. Most of these agreements are for 5 years with some automotive client agreements spanning 3 years, with coverage extending as far as the end of 2030. These agreements already cover approximately 20% of DRAM shipments and about one-third of NAND shipments.

For decades, the industry's operating logic was always "expand capacity first, then wait for demand to absorb it." Now, Micron is gradually shifting to a different model: lock in orders first, then expand capacity.

Current capacity expansion actions resemble executing already-locked orders rather than the traditional cyclical capacity expansion based on demand forecasting and speculation.

Institutions Made 100x Returns: Has Zhipu AI's Stock Peaked?

Institutions and employees are the big winners in this wave of wealth creation. The density of wealth creation ranks among the highest in the history of Chinese tech company IPOs.

Zhipu AI's most solid revenue comes from local deployment. As long as government and enterprise AI budgets persist, Zhipu AI's revenue ceiling won't be too low. Its shareholder structure also endorses this business model. The second wave of sentiment was ignited by GLM-5.2 being rediscovered within the English-speaking tech circle. Dissemination is crucial for Zhipu AI. Chinese investors see Zhipu AI as a Tsinghua-affiliated, state-backed, government-enterprise-deployed, scarce Hong Kong-listed AI stock; the English tech circle sees GLM-5.2 and asks another question: Can it replace part of Claude and GPT's functionality? Can it be deployed locally? Is it open-source? Is the cost low enough?

The most certain unlock on July 8th is approximately 25.68 million shares from cornerstone investors. While not a shock on a hundred-billion-dollar scale, it's still enough to change the supply and demand dynamics for the chips.

Zhipu AI now needs to prove two things most of all. First, can the developer buzz generated by GLM-5.2 be converted into real revenue? Second, after July 8th, can the market absorb the newly available tradable shares, allowing the stock price to transition from being "driven by low circulating supply" to being "driven by fundamentals." If both are achieved, Zhipu AI's high valuation will still have room for a continued narrative.

The End of AI is Light: A 10x Stock Supply Chain Map Most People Have Overlooked

When the industry upgrades from 800G to 1.6T, and even onwards to 3.2T, the first to capture excess returns are often not the hottest headline-grabbing companies, but rather the unavoidable suppliers for all giants like Corning, Amphenol, and Ciena, as well as the upstream materials and testing segments.

Prediction Markets

From Signal Monitoring to Strategy Copy-Trading: How PPP Lowers the Barrier to Polymarket Trading?

Exclusive Interview with PPP: The World Cup Ignited the Prediction Market, How to Find "Replicable Smart Money"?

Whether You Know Soccer or Not, Betting on the Draw is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?

As of June 22nd, out of 40 World Cup group stage matches, 13 ended in draws. If you bet $1,000 on a draw in every match, your total investment would be $40,000. The total settlement for correct bets would be approximately $81,914. After deducting the total investment, the net profit would be around $41,914, a yield of nearly 105%. Looking purely at trading returns, the most profitable script for the group stage might not be a big win by a top team, but the recurring 1-1, 0-0, and 2-2 draws.

Coding's Betting Panel Made Money, But Polymarket Isn't Really a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

Previously, engaging in on-chain arbitrage mostly involved clear rules and lockable price discrepancies. But Polymarket is different; it truly tests your understanding of the logic behind shifting winds in a particular bet (which I find hard to express precisely in words). For example, regarding political and economic dynamics related to East Asia, Chinese-speaking users might indeed have some degree of information advantage worth exploring, but that doesn't guarantee you'll win.

Ultimately, Polymarket doesn't settle based on "your understanding of reality"; it settles according to market rules and designated data sources (UMA's manipulation issues are also not uncommon).

Furthermore, just because you think something is a sure thing in the Chinese context doesn't mean the definition is the same under English rules. Specifically, the rule settings for each bet often contain some tricky wording.

So based on my actual experience, there aren't that many arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket. It mainly relies on information asymmetry and position diversification. Even with high conviction, you might encounter black swan events. For Polymarket, don't treat it as a stable income tool. Don't equate high win rate with good trading. Don't ignore tail risks. Don't do pseudo-diversification. Polymarket is actually an excellent training ground for judgment.

Also recommended: "Landing Third in the Race, Rothera is Disrupting the Prediction Market Landscape", "Facing Its Biggest Competitor Yet, Are Prediction Markets the 'Barbarians at the Gate' for the Insurance Industry?", "WSJ: Fake Websites, Fake Trades, Real Promotion – Polymarket's Traffic Scam".

CeFi & DeFi

Wall Street's New Move: US Stock ETF Dividends Automatically Invested in Bitcoin

Franklin Templeton has filed with the SEC to launch two new Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, featuring the automatic reinvestment of stock dividends into Bitcoin.

In the product design, Bitcoin acts as a long-term growth factor within the US stock market bubble. The 5% allocation to Bitcoin also serves as insurance for the portfolio; if the AI bubble bursts and global capital flows back to safe-haven assets, Bitcoin might also see an uptick.

Also recommended: "Without STRC Re-pegging, There Will Be No Bitcoin Bull Market".

Ethereum & Scaling

Ethereum is Retreading the Old Path of the Internet and Linux: Everyone Fights Everyone, and the Neutral Party Wins It All

Stripe wants everyone to use Tempo, JPMorgan wants to push its own chain, Circle wants to promote Arc—giants will never build on each other's territory. This is precisely Ethereum's opportunity: when everyone refuses to yield to a single company's infrastructure, the only option left is a neutral layer that no one controls.

Also recommended: "EF's Epic Restructuring: 20% Layoffs, Halved Budget, Is Ethereum Streamlining?", "Ethereum Foundation Split?! One Article to Understand Ethlabs' 'Bright Future'".

Weekly Hot Topic Catch-up

Policy & Macro Market

"Black Tuesday" for Japanese and Korean stock markets: Korean stocks circuit-breaking, Nikkei plunging, AI frenzy faces a phased correction;

SK Hynix plans to raise over $29 billion through a Nasdaq listing;

SpaceX (SPCX.O) will join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026;

Views & Commentary

"White-haired stock guru" Serenity analyzes Asian tech stocks and NAV discount opportunities, focusing on targets like Wistron; Missing the AI super-cycle could be costly, with photonics, storage, and Neoclouds worth watching;

Bernstein raises its price target for Micron Technology (MU.O) from $510 to $1,300;

Analysis: Apple's price hikes sound an alarm on AI costs, prompting market to reassess AI stock logic;

Analysis: Rumors of OpenAI IPO delay weigh on market sentiment, US stock futures fall, tech and chip sectors lead the decline;

Adam Back: Strategy won't go to zero, shorting STRC has no basis;

Analysis: ETH is severely oversold; the $1,070-$1,370 range could be a heavy buying accumulation zone;

Institutions, Major Companies & Leading Projects

Cboe Global Markets launches CBOE Predicts prediction platform;

Ethereum Foundation: Restructures and lays off approximately 20% of staff;

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) and OKX form a joint venture;

Data

Bitcoin falls below $60,000 again;

Galaxy Research: Bitcoin miners have entered a capitulation phase, mining difficulty has dropped over 20% from its peak;

a16z crypto: The World Cup and other concurrent events drove prediction market weekly trading volume to an all-time high;

SFC Annual Report: IPO fundraising surged 2.7 times last fiscal year, average daily turnover of Stock Connect northbound trading rose 84%;

Security