比特币筑底进行时：地缘溢价消退，耐心资本入场

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has fallen to nearly $60,000, with losses widening and recent buyers under pressure. However, improving liquidity, strengthening passive buying, and the patience shown by ETF holders suggest the market may be forming a bottom.

Summary

• Bitcoin is trading at a 15% discount to its True Market Mean of $77,200, confirming it remains in a bear market on-chain, despite the post-ceasefire rebound and the unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums.
• The Short-Term Holder MVRV has recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 but remains below the 1.0 breakeven level. The 30-day SMA of the realized profit/loss ratio at 0.53 confirms that loss realization still dominates capital flows.
• The Realized Cap has contracted by 1.45% over the past 90 days to $1.07 trillion, but the 7-day change is nearly stagnant (-0.18%). Returning to positive growth and reclaiming the True Market Mean are key conditions for a credible transition to the pre-bull phase.
• Spot liquidity conditions have improved. Passive bid depth has recovered after Bitcoin fell towards $60,000, reducing reliance on aggressive buyers and suggesting selling pressure is being absorbed more efficiently.
• Total open interest remains low, but large passive bids continue to absorb supply and aggressive selling pressure is fading, pointing towards a more patient buyer base providing support at current levels.
• Implied volatility has normalized significantly, while realized volatility continues to rise, pushing the volatility risk premium into negative territory.
• Skew has retreated from recent extreme values, indicating a significant alleviation in the demand for downside protection.
• Options flow is becoming more balanced, but dealer positioning remains concentrated in the negative gamma zone around $68,000.

Macro Insights

The Bitcoin sell-off in May-June was a war premium event. In the three preceding weeks, BTC fell approximately 22% from $77,486 to a low of $60,861, while WTI crude oil stayed above $90 and gold rallied on safe-haven demand. A classic geopolitical-stagflation scenario.

The US-Iran peace agreement announced on June 14 broke this pattern within 48 hours. Crude oil collapsed from $86 to $76, and gold's safe-haven premium faded. BTC rebounded back into the $65,000-$66,000 range it had lost during the decline.

Crude oil's percentage move far exceeded other assets, which is the key interpretive point. The energy and geopolitical premiums that had weighed on risk assets over the past three weeks have been removed. Gold is the only one of the three assets near its starting position. Both BTC and crude oil are below their pre-shock ranges, but for opposite reasons: crude is repricing the outlook for real demand, while BTC is repricing the 'absence of headwinds'.

With the geopolitical risk premium unwinding, the conditions pushing capital into safe havens and away from risk assets are easing. Historically, this rotation has been bullish for BTC.

On-Chain Insights

Below Market Mean

With the geopolitical risk premium unwinding after the US-Iran peace agreement and crude oil falling from $86 to $76, the macro headwinds that weighed on risk assets recently are easing. This context allows us to reassess Bitcoin's position within its own cyclical rhythm (assuming the structural patterns of prior cycles remain valid).

The clearest standard for distinguishing structural bull from bear markets is comparing the spot price against the cost basis of the active investor cohort. The True Market Mean, tracking the average purchase price of actively traded coins, has historically served as the dividing line between bear and bull markets.

The True Market Mean currently sits at $77,200, approximately 15% higher than the spot price of $65,600, indicating the market is in a clear discount zone. The price briefly approached this level during the mid-May high, but the subsequent correction significantly widened the gap.

Despite the recent rebound, on-chain metrics remain firmly in the bear market zone. Only a rapid reclaim of the True Market Mean would trigger a shift in our overall outlook from a bear market to a potential pre-bull phase.

Recent Buyers Still Underwater

Against the backdrop of a confirmed overall bear market with the persistent discount to the True Market Mean, the next question is: How are new entrants faring after the rebound from the early June lows? The Short-Term Holder MVRV measures the aggregate unrealized profit/loss of coins moved within the last 155 days, with 1.0 being the breakeven point for this cohort.

This metric was 0.83 in last week's report, indicating deep losses for new buyers. It has since recovered to 0.90 with the rebound from the lows but remains below the critical 1.0 threshold. The implied cost basis for this group is approximately $72,600, meaning they are, on average, still facing an unrealized loss of about 10%.

While the recent rebound has provided some relief, it has not been sufficient to return this group to overall profitability, which is a prerequisite for exiting bear market conditions. The move from 0.81 to 0.90 has alleviated pressure on recent buyers, but the issue is not resolved. As long as STH MVRV fails to reclaim 1.0, this cohort remains a potential source of selling pressure in any rally attempt.

Losses Still Dominate Capital Flows

Further confirming the bear market framework and the fact that the recent rebound has failed to push STH MVRV back to breakeven, the overall market profitability picture points to the same conclusion. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio compares the USD value of coins realizing profits versus those realizing losses. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking dominance, while below 1 reflects that loss realization is the primary force.

The 90-day SMA of this ratio is currently 1.10, well below its four-year average and only slightly above the neutral 1.0 level, suggesting a state of indecision on a quarterly smoothing basis. The 30-day SMA is more definitive, standing at just 0.53, confirming that loss realization has significantly outpaced profit-taking over the past month.

This capital flow configuration—a 90-day SMA hovering near 1.0 and a 30-day SMA at 0.53—firmly confirms the current bear market status. A sustained recovery of both SMAs to levels above 2, characteristic of bull markets, would be the first meaningful signal of a shift in underlying preference.

Capital is Quietly Exiting

Measuring profitability preference via the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is only half the capital flow picture; the magnitude provides the full context. Realized Cap measures the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation, rising when capital flows into the network and falling when capital exits. Currently at $1.07 trillion, Realized Cap has contracted by 1.45% over the past 90 days, with a 30-day change of -1.39%, reflecting a sustained cyclical capital outflow rather than a single drastic shock.

A faintly positive signal from the recent rebound is that the 7-day change is nearing stagnation (-0.18%). The cyclical contraction of Realized Cap corroborates the bearish thesis established by the valuation and flow data above: the market is in a deep bear phase where valuation discounts and capital flows are aligned.

The specific, measurable conditions required for entering a credible pre-bull phase are: reclaiming the True Market Mean near $77,200, STH MVRV returning above 1.0, and the 90-day Realized Cap turning to positive growth.

Off-Chain Insights

Spot Liquidity Turns Supportive

Spot market conditions have started to improve after Bitcoin fell into the $60,000 range. The Binance spot order book depth imbalance has notably shifted towards the bid side, with buyer liquidity now exceeding the resting sell-side volume, reaching its widest levels in recent months.

This indicates market participants are increasingly inclined to absorb supply at lower prices rather than providing liquidity during rallies. While order book liquidity is inherently dynamic and can be withdrawn quickly, this recent shift marks a significant change from the seller-dominated conditions seen during the prior correction.

Historically, sustained bid dominance often accompanies market stabilization, as deeper bid walls can provide support below the price and enhance the market's ability to absorb further selling pressure.

While not sufficient to confirm a bottom on its own, the emergence of strong bid depth suggests that spot market participants are increasingly willing to defend current price levels.

Patient Buying, No Aggression

Open interest was in a recent high range in late May, providing financing for the push to local highs. During the price breakdown in early June, both spot CVD and futures CVD turned negative simultaneously, indicating selling from both real capital and leveraged participants, rather than just a unilateral long squeeze. The subsequent significant compression of open interest from its highs confirms a genuine deleveraging event. Funding rates fell from clearly positive levels to oscillate near zero, showing neither a crowded long premium nor aggressive short bias.

Since the washout, open interest has barely recovered, so the modest uptick in futures CVD reflects only weak demand for leverage. Spot CVD has not followed suit, remaining in a flat to downtrend. However, this is precisely the characteristic of the resting limit bid orders discussed earlier. Passive orders absorb supply below the spread, which can keep spot CVD looking downward even as coins are sold, a state sustained by continuously replenished bids. This accumulation is quiet and lacks aggression.

Only a sustained upward turn in spot CVD would indicate that real buyers are becoming eager to enter quickly rather than patiently placing orders. If this signal were to align with the currently subdued futures signals, it would constitute a constructive dual upward alignment of capital flows.

Implied Volatility Continues to Normalize

Regarding implied volatility, the sharp repricing triggered by Bitcoin's breakdown from its multi-month range is continuing to unwind as the spot price stabilizes around $65,000 and rebounds from June lows.

The adjustment has been most violent on the front end. The 1-week ATM implied volatility has fallen from a peak of over 65% to around 35%, and the 1-month tenor has dropped from about 50% to 35%. Adjustments on longer tenors are more moderate, with the 6-month tenor decreasing from approximately 44% to 41%.

This decline reflects the market's growing comfort with the current price environment. Despite Bitcoin's rebound from June lows of $59,000 to near $67,000, options demand across tenors continues to fall as traders unwind the protective premiums built during the selling pressure.

The volatility shock has been largely absorbed, and the options market is steadily removing the premiums priced in during the recent period of stress.

Volatility Risk Premium Turns Negative

As implied volatility normalizes, the relationship between implied and realized volatility has shifted significantly over the past week.

The 1-month implied volatility has fallen from about 47% to 35%, while realized volatility has continued to climb, rising from roughly 27% to 42%. The result is a substantial compression of the volatility risk premium, which has moved from double-digit premiums in early June into negative territory.

The chart shows that the volatility premium built up during the selling pressure has been steadily unwound. As implied volatility normalizes, the recent market turbulence is being captured by realized volatility, compressing the spread and eventually turning it negative.

Realized volatility is now higher than implied volatility, completely reversing the relationship seen in early June.

The turn of the volatility risk premium to negative suggests the options market currently expects a calmer period ahead than what recent price action implies.

25 Delta Skew Normalizes After Protection Wave

With the volatility risk premium reversing, skew allows us to see how directional protection demand has evolved since the selling pressure.

Skew is calculated as put volatility minus call volatility. A positive value indicates that put options are more expensive than equivalent call options. Earlier this month, downside protection became very expensive, with 1-week skew briefly nearing 30% and the 1-month tenor rising above 24%, as traders rushed to hedge against the fall to June lows.

This demand has now eased. 1-week skew has fallen back to around 13%, and the 1-month tenor has dropped to about 14%. Longer tenors have also normalized, with the 3-month and 6-month tenors currently around 13% and 11% respectively.

Protection demand remains higher than pre-selling pressure levels, but the acute wave of downside hedging has largely subsided as market conditions stabilize.

Gamma Exposure Concentrated Above Current Spot

Beyond pricing and sentiment, gamma exposure helps identify the strike levels where dealer hedging could most impact market dynamics.

Recent options flow has become more balanced. Over the past seven days, put buying accounted for the largest share of premium paid (28.1%), followed closely by call buying (24.1%). In the last 24 hours, call buying has slightly exceeded put buying.

This evolution is reflected in the gamma profile. The largest negative gamma cluster is currently at $68,000, with short gamma exposure extending from $66,000 to $71,000. With Bitcoin currently trading near $65,000, the spot price remains slightly below the main area of short gamma concentration. Positive gamma exposure sits much higher, in the high $70,000 range, indicating Bitcoin is still some distance away from the nearest stable dealer positioning zone.

As protection demand normalizes, dealer positioning remains concentrated above the current spot price, with the largest negative gamma region centered around $68,000.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in a correction phase, but market characteristics are beginning to shift. Although profitability has deteriorated, loss realization has accelerated, and recent buyers remain under pressure, several indicators suggest the market is transitioning from forced selling towards stabilization.

Liquidity conditions are improving, spot order books are being rebuilt, and passive buyers are becoming more active. Meanwhile, ETF holders continue to show relatively firm conviction, extending holding periods rather than aggressively reducing positions. The options market remains cautious, with demand for downside protection still present, but volatility expectations have receded from recent extreme levels.

The result is a market that is still fragile, but increasingly supported by patient capital. Whether Bitcoin can establish a durable bottom around current levels likely depends on whether improved liquidity and selective accumulation can outweigh persistent profitability weakness and broader risk sentiment.