年化15%-25%，贝莱德比特币收益ETF是机遇还是陷阱？

Original Author: By Boaz Sobrado

Original Compilation: Luffy, Foresight News

"Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that BlackRock's Bitcoin Income ETF (BITA) is about to launch," posted crypto commentator MartiniGuyYT. He cited Balchunas stating that the fund aims to "achieve an annual yield of 15-25% while striving to capture at least 70% of Bitcoin's upside potential."

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (ticker: BITA) on the Nasdaq in mid-June. While Bitcoin itself generates no native yield, this product offers investors cash dividends.

How is the yield generated? BITA leverages BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund, IBIT, by selling covered call options to earn steady option premium income for investors, at the cost of sacrificing some of Bitcoin's substantial upside gains. Robert Mitchnick, Head of Global Digital Assets at BlackRock, told CoinDesk that this yield-focused Bitcoin fund represents the natural next step in the industry's evolution, designed for investors and institutions seeking stable cash flow, addressing the pain point of institutions being unable to hold zero-yield assets. He noted the product performs better when Bitcoin is in a sideways or declining market; if Bitcoin experiences a unilateral surge, the fund's gains will lag behind the spot price.

Bullish View: This Product Will Drive Bitcoin Prices Higher

Trading blogger TimWarrenTrades said, "BlackRock is directly challenging Strategy. This ETF essentially converts high-yield financial wealth into incremental demand for Bitcoin. Previously, when BlackRock launched Bitcoin-related ETFs, the market saw upward movements."

IBIT inflow data corroborates this logic. According to @thepfund, IBIT saw net inflows of 906 Bitcoins in a single day this week, valued at $57.67 million. CoinEdition also noted that Fidelity accumulated an additional 37,700 Bitcoins over the same period, showing strong institutional allocation confidence.

Veteran Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin stated on the podcast "On The Margin" that the launch timing aligns with the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle he has observed for a decade: "The four-year cycle pattern has never failed, but in every bear market, the vast majority of analysts declare that the cycle logic is obsolete." In his view, widespread pessimism is precisely a bottom signal: "Anyone who has gone through a full bull-bear cycle knows that now is the time to position; the cycle has its own underlying logic."

He believes Bitcoin's buyer base has not yet formed. "Only about 4% of the global population holds Bitcoin, and the proportion holding various crypto assets is only 8%. The industry is at a critical juncture, crossing the chasm, and the early adopter ratio happens to be at the critical threshold of 4%."

Price targets from major institutions also send optimistic signals. JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin's cycle high at $170,000, VanEck sees it reaching $180,000, and Standard Chartered determines that around $59,000 is the bottom for this cycle, declaring the crypto winter over.

Bearish View: Seemingly High Yields, Actually a Yield Trap

Forthright warnings also come from within the industry. Bitfinex and Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino believes the frenzy of funds flowing into ETFs is not beneficial for the long-term development of the crypto industry. "I don't necessarily think ETFs are good for the crypto ecosystem," he said in an interview. "What would the whole industry look like if 99.99% of Bitcoin is concentrated in various ETFs?"

Ironically, custody services are precisely his company's revenue source. "Every day, a large number of users treat us as a bank, but I prefer that users manage their own private keys and truly hold Bitcoin." He admitted that while the custody business is highly profitable, it does not align with crypto-native principles.

Some traders raise more specific doubts: this yield product will not bring incremental capital to Bitcoin; it will only divert existing capital originally intended for direct spot purchases. A popular video from news channel Glimpse Market directly points out the core contradiction: Bitcoin itself cannot generate cash flow out of thin air. The product's returns rely entirely on the artificial creation of option tools. Investors are locked out of upside potential while being fully exposed to downside risk, essentially making it a trap.

Expectations for the market bottom are also deeply divided. Galaxy Research predicts the bottom of this cycle could dip to between $40,000 and $46,000, a stark contrast to Standard Chartered's judgment that "the bear market is over."

How Will the Bitcoin Market Be Affected?

Terpin distinguished the fundamental difference between two types of capital: "ETF capital is not long-term, committed capital; it is completely different from the corporate treasury capital of companies like MicroStrategy, which borrows to accumulate and holds without moving." He also emphasized the strong scarcity on the supply side: "A few weeks ago, the 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined on the network. Only 1 million remain to be mined, but it will take over a hundred years to mine them all."

His long-term price target far exceeds those of major institutional analysts: "As the adoption S-curve takes off, supply shortages will cause massive market reversals. The scarcity effect will drive Bitcoin into a super bull market. I believe the price could reach one million dollars."

BlackRock's BITA management fee is only 0.65%, lower than comparable covered call yield funds on the market. After reviewing the filing documents, a YouTube industry analyst stated that BlackRock is accelerating its market capture, launching before competitor products from Goldman Sachs in July.

The fund's capital flows will provide the ultimate answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin, and Bitcoin holds the $65,000 range, it indicates sustained real buying from institutions. Conversely, if the yield ETF only diverts existing spot fund capital, then the bearish "yield trap" judgment will be validated.

Twitter user @frugalbc concluded: "It's the same Bitcoin above $60,000, but the situation is worlds apart. In 2021, $67,000 was the historical top; now, this price level is closer to the bottom of the current cycle – a fact consistently overlooked by the bears."