世界杯开赛，盘点预测市场上那些“爆赚”和“亏麻”

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

The World Cup has officially kicked off, and prediction markets are witnessing exponential growth in trading volume.

According to a report by asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital. Prior to this, various prediction markets and exchanges had already launched incentive campaigns to seize the opportunity to boost attention and trading volume. As the group stage unfolds, major upsets, weak teams holding strong opponents to draws, and dark horses emerging have occurred one after another. Players in the prediction market have experienced their own moments of "sudden wealth" and "massive losses" as a result. (Recommended reading: "World Cup Prediction Battle Heats Up: How Are Major Exchanges Competing for This Wave of Event Traffic?", "The Second Venue of the World Cup: Inside the Prediction Market.")

Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that sports events in prediction markets are highly prone to unexpected upsets, so caution is advised when following trades.

Representative Profitable Accounts in the World Cup: 4 Wins Out of 4, New Account Profits Nearly $10 Million

First, let's look at the profit leaderboard. It features newly created wallets that have secured nearly $10 million in profit in a single move, making one wonder about potential insider information while also acknowledging: "A soccer ball is round; on the World Cup stage, anything can happen."

Player #1: 4 Wins Out of 4, Single-Day Profit of $9.24 Million

Yesterday, a smart money account (@mintblade) secured $9.24 million in profit within a single day through World Cup predictions. All 4 predictions it participated in were correct, achieving a 100% win rate. In the match between Iran and New Zealand, the participant invested $7.03 million predicting that "Iran will not win" and earned $7.34 million from that single prediction. Notably, this user tops Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboard.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade

Player #2: First Bet Nets $9.06 Million Profit, Biggest Winner from Spain's Upset Draw

In the early hours of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in an unexpected draw. A new wallet (@Fishalive) spent $4.22 million on Polymarket predicting that "Spain would not win the match" and that "Cape Verde would win with a -2.5 handicap." Ultimately, $4.22 million grew to $13.28 million, yielding a profit of $9.06 million.

Notably, it purchased approximately 4.7 million shares of "Spain Will Not Win" at an average price of 9 cents. After the match concluded, it was settled at 100 cents, resulting in a single-trade profit of approximately $4.31 million, with a return rate exceeding 1,000%. With a profit of $9.06 million, this user ranks second on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboard.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive

Player #3: 2 Trades, Profit of $5.2 Million

On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS invested a total of $4.73 million, predicting that "Turkey would not win" and that "Australia would win with a +1.5 handicap." Both predictions were successful, ultimately yielding a profit of $5.2 million. For these trades, the user achieved a 128% return rate.

It is worth noting that despite a single-trade high profit of $4.8 million, the user's overall trading still shows a loss of nearly $2.58 million.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f

Player #4: 3rd Place on Polymarket Profit Leaderboard, Profits Over $7.85 Million in the Past Week

Polymarket user @endlessFate has made a profit of $4.7 million over the past week. Previously, in the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, they wagered $2.48 million on predictions that "the match would be a draw," "Uruguay would not win," and "Saudi Arabia would win with a +1.5 handicap," eventually securing a profit of $5.67 million. In the "Australia vs. Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia would win with a +1.5 handicap."

In the ongoing "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan" match, they have invested nearly $7.5 million predicting a "Colombia win," with current profits exceeding $2.05 million. Currently, with profits exceeding $7.85 million, they rank 3rd on Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard. Another notable point is that this user started participating in predictions on Polymarket in April this year and currently has overall profits exceeding $6 million, having experienced multiple losses in previous predictions.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate

Current prediction for "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan"

Account's profit and loss performance over the past week

For more weekly profitable accounts, details can be found on the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.

Representative Losing Accounts in the World Cup: $1 Million Loss from an Upset, Over $1.8 Million Loss Betting Against Argentina

In the prediction market, where there are winners, there are naturally losers. The opposing counterparty always exists, just in a different guise and form.

Spain vs. Cape Verde: 0-0 Draw Causes Single Account Loss of $1 Million

Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bought a "Spain win" in the World Cup group stage match between Spain and Cape Verde. The match ultimately ended 0-0, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for the user.

Notably, this user entered the trade at 92 cents, essentially putting up a $1 million principal for a potential profit of $85,000. What seemed like a sure win turned into a loss due to an upset, driven by Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper's 7 incredible saves and their extremely robust defense.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity

Lost the watermelon, didn't even pick up the sesame seeds

Messi Scores a Hat-Trick, Argentina Defeats Algeria, Single Trade Loss Over $1.8 Million

On the 17th, before the World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria began, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested $1.81 million predicting "Argentina will not win" and "Algeria +1.5." If Argentina had drawn or lost, the two bets would have yielded a profit of $2.65 million.

However, ultimately, Argentina, powered by Messi's hat-trick of 3 goals, successfully defeated Algeria. The match ended with a score of 3-0. Consequently, all funds invested by this user were lost.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12

Odaily Planet Daily will continue to monitor World Cup-related predictions on prediction market platforms. Welcome to join the Odaily Prophet Channel.