史上最大IPO引爆多空激辩：SpaceX值1.77万亿吗？

Original Author: Biteye

Currently, the initial IPO pricing for SpaceX is tentatively set at $135 per share, with a planned fundraising scale of approximately $75 billion. This corresponds to a fully diluted valuation of about $1.77 trillion, essentially securing its position as the largest IPO in the history of capital markets.

If this scale is ultimately realized, Musk's net worth will also surge by over $220 billion, propelling him towards becoming the world's first trillionaire.

However, heavy is the head that wears the crown. The reason the SpaceX IPO has garnered so much attention is not just its potential to be the largest IPO ever, but also because the capital market is already fiercely debating its valuation.

Is SpaceX truly worth $1.77 trillion? As Musk looks at the extra $220 billion in his wallet, can he sleep soundly?

🌟 Bullish: Underwriters Tell a Long-Term Story with Starlink + Rocket Launches + AI

Bulls believe that betting on SpaceX isn't just about being bullish on a rocket company, but rather about securing a first-mover advantage in the future gateway to space infrastructure.

A $1.77 trillion valuation seems high, but if Starlink, low-cost launches, and AI businesses continue to deliver, the $135 price tag has a long-term narrative to support it.

Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs

X Followers: 1.132 million | XHunt Rank: 12015 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.

Core View: SpaceX's valuation shouldn't be understood simply as a traditional aerospace company; instead, Starlink and future AI businesses must be incorporated into a long-term growth model.

Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's revenue to be approximately $160 billion by 2028, exceeding $470 billion by 2030.

Among these, the AI division is considered the most aggressive part. Goldman Sachs estimates that SpaceX's AI-related businesses could generate around $322 billion in revenue by 2030.

Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley

X Followers: 742,000 | XHunt Rank: 32049 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.

Core View: SpaceX's long-term value comes from the compound growth of "Space + AI," with a future revenue ceiling far higher than traditional aerospace companies.

Morgan Stanley also projects SpaceX's 2028 revenue to be around $160 billion.

Its long-term forecast is even more aggressive: by 2040, Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion, with an adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion.

If you are buying into the gateway of space infrastructure for the next decade or more, then $135 is undervalued, but it requires a long time to materialize.

Sacra

An independent research firm focused on pre-IPO tech companies, specializing in deep-dive company analysis and valuation breakdowns.

Core View: Bullish on the long-term business outlook, but $135 is not a low price. It's more like buying an option on SpaceX's transformation from an aerospace company into a space infrastructure platform.

Sacra estimates SpaceX's 2025 revenue to be about $18.7 billion, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion, making it the company's most critical profit center.

It believes SpaceX's core advantage lies in vertical integration: building its own rockets, launching them, deploying its own satellites, and controlling its own terminals and ground network. This creates a cost advantage that competitors find difficult to replicate.

Looking solely at current Starlink and rocket launch businesses, $135 is not cheap. This price is more palatable if you believe SpaceX can expand from an aerospace company into a comprehensive platform covering satellite internet, low-cost launches, and broader space infrastructure.

ARK Invest @ARKInvest

X Followers: 816,000 | XHunt Rank: 1637 | Cathie Wood's innovative technology investment firm, focused on disruptive technology assets.

Core View: While SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation is very high, it isn't entirely unsupported if you look at the long-term potential towards 2030.

ARK Invest's open-source SpaceX valuation model indicates an expected enterprise value of approximately $2.5 trillion for SpaceX by 2030. According to their model, the bull case is around $3.1 trillion, and the bear case is around $1.7 trillion.

ARK's core logic is that SpaceX's value derives not just from rocket launches, but from Starlink's global satellite internet network, low-cost launch capabilities, and future space infrastructure businesses.

Based on ARK's projections, the IPO offer price of $135 may still have some upside.

🌟 Bearish: Independent Institutions Believe IPO Valuation is Overstretched

Bears do not deny that SpaceX is the world's most scarce commercial aerospace asset, nor do they deny Starlink's long-term value.

However, they argue that the $1.77 trillion IPO valuation has already priced in too much future growth prematurely, especially given the significant uncertainty surrounding the AI business.

Morningstar @MorningstarInc

X Followers: 238,000 | XHunt Rank: 98209 | Globally renowned independent investment research firm, commonly uses fundamental and DCF models to assess company value.

Core View: SpaceX is a good company, but the IPO valuation appears significantly overpriced.

Morningstar's DCF model places SpaceX's fair value at approximately $780 billion, which is only about 45% of the IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion.

In Morningstar's sum-of-parts valuation, SpaceX's core launch business plus Starlink is valued at approximately $611 billion, while the xAI/AI-related businesses are valued at around $170 billion on a probability-weighted basis.

Morningstar also highlights two risks: Musk is a key person for SpaceX, and the valuation includes a clear "Musk premium." After the IPO, as the lock-up period ends, early shareholders and employees could create selling pressure.

Morningstar believes the $135 price is clearly expensive and not suitable for rushing into. There may be better buying opportunities after the IPO.

PitchBook @PitchBook

X Followers: 48,000 | XHunt Rank: 49174 | Global data platform for private equity, venture capital, and pre-IPO companies, covering valuations and financing information for numerous unlisted firms.

Core View: A valuation around $1.5 trillion is acceptable, $1.75 trillion is a bit expensive, but not entirely irrational.

PitchBook uses a Sum-of-the-Parts model to estimate SpaceX's fair value range between approximately $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, mainly focusing on the launch business and Starlink, without fully relying on the xAI narrative.

The $135 price is already near or slightly above the upper bound of PitchBook's valuation range. It's not cheap, but if Starship and Starlink deliver long-term, it cannot be considered completely outrageous.

New Constructs @NewConstructs

X Followers: 5675 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent stock research firm focusing on financial quality, valuation risk, and reverse DCF analysis.

Core View: SpaceX is not worth participating in at a $1.75 trillion valuation; advises investors to skip the IPO.

New Constructs gives SpaceX an "Unattractive" rating. They believe the $1.75 trillion valuation implies excessively high future growth and profit requirements. SpaceX would need to become one of the highest-revenue and most profitable companies in the U.S. stock market to justify this price.

They cite issues like insufficient internal accounting controls at SpaceX, public investors having virtually no voting rights, a significant portion of IPO proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, potentially misleading non-GAAP metrics, and risks related to related-party transactions.

To support a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX's revenue might need to reach $1.1 trillion by 2035, implying an average annual growth rate of about 50% for the next decade. Fortune notes that such a growth rate has few historical precedents.

New Constructs' assessment is the most direct: the risk-reward at this price is unfavorable, and they advise against participating in the IPO.

Trefis @Trefis

X Followers: 2661 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent US stock valuation platform that derives target prices by deconstructing business models.

Core View: SpaceX is a very scarce company, but the $135 offer price is clearly too expensive.

Trefis acknowledges SpaceX's long-term advantages in commercial aerospace, Starlink satellite internet, and low-cost launches but believes these advantages don't mean investors should ignore the price.

Trefis gives SpaceX a target price of approximately $79 per share, significantly lower than the $135 IPO price.

🌟 Final Thoughts

Whether bullish or bearish, most essentially acknowledge that SpaceX is one of the world's most scarce commercial aerospace companies.

The real controversy remains the $135 price: does it have a safety margin?

📈Bulls believe that buying SpaceX means buying into the long-term story of Starlink, low-cost launches, AI, and future space infrastructure.

📉Bears believe that $135 has already priced in expectations fully.

Currently, the IPO subscription multiple for $SPCX has reached 4x, indicating that despite the valuation controversy, capital enthusiasm for SpaceX remains very high.

🙋So, the question is, will you participate in the $SPCX IPO subscription? Do you think Musk can take that $220 billion in stride, or will it keep him up at night?