AI PC大战：不要押阵营，要押收费站

Roger Lee | BIT US Stocks Special Analyst

With 21 years of experience in investment banking, asset management, and financial institutions, he has long focused on the AI industry chain, US stock macro liquidity, and options strategy research.

NVIDIA and MediaTek's entry into AI PCs may seem like a new chip combination for consumer PCs on the surface, but at its core, it signifies the Windows-side AI ecosystem moving from tentative single-point exploration to multi-player competition. My assessment is that this battle should not be simplified into a religious "x86 vs. Arm" alignment; what truly deserves study is who can navigate the replacement cycle, sustainably capture gross margins, cash flow, and pricing power in the industry chain.

I view AI PCs as a three-tier opportunity:

• The first tier is the toll booth for advanced manufacturing: no matter who wins, TSMC finds it easier to collect the toll.
• The second tier is the spillover of computing power and platforms: AMD and NVDA represent the x86 offensive and the extension of the GPU software stack, respectively.
• The third tier is architectural diffusion and turnaround potential: both ARM and INTC offer flexibility, but position discipline must be stricter.

1. Industry Assessment: AI PCs Move from Concept to Shipment Verification

In 2024, Gartner projected AI PC shipments would reach 114.225 million units in 2025, accounting for 43% of the PC market. After revisions in 2025, impacted by tariffs and procurement rhythm disruptions, the forecast was lowered to 77.792 million units, or 31% of the market. However, shipments are still expected to reach 143.113 million units in 2026, with a penetration rate of 54.7%. The insight I draw from this data is not that "AI PC demand has been disproven," but rather that short-term progress will fluctuate while the long-term direction toward standardization remains unchanged.

From an investment perspective, the real challenge for AI PCs lies not in "having an NPU or not," but in whether users are willing to replace their devices for a local AI experience. If applications remain limited to meeting summaries, image generation, and simple assistants, the replacement cycle elasticity will be lower than the market's most optimistic expectations. However, if enterprise clients start mandating privacy computing, low-latency inference, and local knowledge base deployment as standard configurations, AI PCs will transform from a consumer electronics story into an enterprise IT upgrade narrative.

2. Competitive Landscape: Chip Manufacturers Fight, TSMC Collects the Toll

The surface-level narrative of AI PCs is Arm challenging x86, but I am more concerned about where the profit pool is shifting. NVIDIA excels with its GPU and AI software stack, AMD with its x86 CPU and GPU combination, Qualcomm with low power consumption and communication capabilities, and Intel with its legacy ecosystem and enterprise channels. Each has its strengths, but a commonality is also evident: high-end chips cannot bypass advanced manufacturing nodes.

TrendForce reports that global wafer foundry revenue in Q2 2025 was approximately $41.7 billion, with TSMC holding a 70.2% share. In Q4 2025, global foundry revenue reached approximately $46.3 billion, with TSMC's share around 70.4%. This means that as long as AI PCs, AI servers, mobile APs, and edge AI chips continue to compete for advanced processes, TSMC is not merely a cyclical stock but more like a toll entrance for the entire AI hardware era.

I do not believe every new product launch warrants a buying spree, but I do think that whenever industry competition intensifies, we should ask a reverse question: If the winner remains uncertain, who can charge all winners? Within the AI PC line, my answer remains advanced manufacturing, packaging, key IP, and platform software, rather than simply betting on a specific architectural slogan.

3. Target Ranking: TSMC for Core Holdings, AMD for Offense, Intel/ARM for Flexibility

Over the past year, semiconductor stocks have already priced in AI PCs, edge AI, and computing power spillovers. Daily prices from Yahoo Finance show that AMD, Intel, ARM, and TSM all exhibit strong flexibility within the sample period, but they represent different risk-return profiles. My approach is not to buy all AI PC-related stocks together, but to stratify them based on certainty, valuation discipline, and position in the industry chain.

My core conclusion is simple: This is not a war where you can only buy the winner; it is a war where you should buy the toll booth, the platform, and the companies with certain cash flow. If the market goes into a frenzy on the day of a news release, I prefer to wait. If a pullback brings the risk-reward profile of good companies back into a reasonable range, I will prioritize TSM and AMD, followed by the flexible opportunities in ARM and Intel.

4. Risk Warnings

The risks along this main theme cannot be ignored either:

First, AI PC applications may fall short of expectations, leading to a weaker-than-anticipated replacement cycle.

Second, if the compatibility improvement of Windows on Arm is too slow, the narratives of Qualcomm and new entrants will be suppressed.

Third, tariffs, corporate procurement pauses, and macroeconomic uncertainty could impact PC demand.

Fourth, if there is a temporary mismatch in the supply and demand for advanced manufacturing, TSMC could also experience a valuation pullback.

Fifth, the entire AI chain is trading at relatively high valuations. Once US stock risk appetite declines, the stocks with the highest flexibility often face the fastest pullbacks.

Therefore, I am more inclined to view AI PCs as a long-term industrial migration rather than a short-term news trade. The truly professional approach is not to buy slogans on launch day, but to wait for sentiment to subside before buying the ecosystem, the toll booth, and companies capable of consistently delivering cash flow.

This report is prepared by a special analyst. The views expressed in this report are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the BIT platform. This material is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.