BIT Research: SpaceX’s Sprint to a Trillion-Dollar Valuation — What Is the Market Really Paying For?
- Core Thesis: SpaceX’s valuation logic is shifting from that of a traditional rocket company to a platform asset covering AI, global connectivity, and space infrastructure. Its implied market valuation of approximately $2.3 trillion already reflects high growth expectations, but risks associated with liquidity pressure and valuation discipline require caution.
- Key Elements:
- SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI expands its addressable market to approximately $28.5 trillion, with the AI market accounting for $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the traditional space business’s $0.4 trillion.
- The SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid trade at approximately a 34% premium over the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market cap of roughly $2.3 trillion.
- Starlink’s 2025 revenue reached $11.4 billion (up 50% year-over-year), with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, the per-user ARPU fell from $99 to $66, raising questions about growth efficiency.
- The current valuation corresponds to approximately 100x price-to-sales ratio, far exceeding most large-cap tech companies, requiring continuous reinforcement of the growth narrative and execution capability for support.
- The IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion, with a $20 billion bridge loan used to replace high-yield debt. Lock-up arrangements could lead to sustained liquidity pressure.
- The global space economy is projected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033, with declining launch costs and enhanced AI synergy effects as core drivers.
The current market is repricing around what could be SpaceX's largest-ever IPO. While most investors are focused on its target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, what may be more noteworthy is the underlying shift in the growth narrative it represents. Following SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, the market has begun to view it as a platform asset covering AI, global connectivity networks, and space infrastructure, rather than merely a rocket company.
From a market pricing perspective, SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid are currently trading at a ~34% premium to the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market cap of around $2.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a larger story in advance, and investors must assess whether this narrative can justify such a high valuation level.
From a Rocket Company to an Infrastructure Platform: The Re-evaluation of SpaceX's Valuation Logic
The combination of SpaceX and xAI pushes its total addressable market (TAM) to approximately $28.5 trillion. Within this, the AI-related market accounts for roughly $26.5 trillion, global connectivity networks $1.6 trillion, while traditional space operations themselves are valued at only about $0.4 trillion.
This means the market is currently pricing in value not from Mars exploration, but from broader infrastructure assets like data centers, AI, and global communication networks. As SpaceX's core asset, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined from $99 three years ago to $66. Whether future user growth and profitability can improve in tandem will be a key factor determining valuation.
Meanwhile, SpaceX's current valuation corresponds to roughly 100 times price-to-sales, far exceeding most major tech companies. Such a high valuation level not only requires continuously strengthening the growth narrative but also demands the company maintain strong execution capabilities for many years to come.
Behind the High Valuation: IPO Liquidity and Expectations for Space Economy Expansion
Since 2002, SpaceX has raised only about $12 billion in cumulative primary market funding. This IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion and could generate around $800 million in underwriting fees for Wall Street. Additionally, in March 2026, SpaceX signed a $20 billion bridge loan to replace high-yield debt related to X and xAI, giving this listing significant importance for balance sheet optimization.
Notably, SpaceX has adopted a relatively flexible lock-up arrangement. Some early investors will be able to sell up to 20% of their eligible shares after the first quarterly earnings report, and if the stock price rises 30% above the offering price, additional shares will be unlocked. This means the market will face ongoing liquidity challenges post-IPO, and it explains why the market narrative around SpaceX needs constant reinforcement to absorb potential future supply pressure.
From a longer-term perspective, the market's core bet remains on the expansion of the space economy. Mainstream forecasts indicate the global space economy could grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033. As launch costs continue to decline, synergies between satellite networks, orbital data, and AI applications are strengthening, and real value may gradually shift towards the platform and application layers.
Overall, SpaceX's current valuation already reflects high market expectations, and valuation discipline remains crucial in the short term. For investors, the focus should perhaps not be limited to SpaceX itself, but on the long-term trend it represents—the increasing integration of AI, global connectivity networks, space infrastructure, and digital assets. If this trend continues to evolve, related listed companies and space economy-themed assets could also become important windows for observing this narrative.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Market conditions involve risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
