Two critical battles are unfolding simultaneously, as BTC and HYPE face imminent directional choices.

This week, the crypto market continues its high-level consolidation pattern, with bulls and bears increasingly divided and a directional choice imminent. After stabilizing and rebounding at endpoint 32 ($38.88), whether HYPE can break through $43.17 and challenge the previous high of $45.76 will be key to extending the daily Wave V structure. Meanwhile, BTC, having completed its Wave D rebound, faces the critical test of the core watershed zone between $79,500 and $80,600: A breakout signals a shift; rejection leads to a pullback. Once the direction is clear, the market is likely to exhibit a pronounced one-sided trend.

While the current market presents opportunities, it also harbors risks. Avoid chasing rallies or selling into dips. Only by relying on clear structural analysis and strict discipline can one capture deterministic opportunities amidst the consolidation and achieve steady, long-term gains.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• In-depth analysis of HYPE's hourly level price structure (detailed in Part 1)
• HYPE's price forecast and short-term trading strategy for this week (detailed in Part 2)
• Multi-timeframe structural analysis of BTC (detailed in Part 3)
• BTC's price forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies for this week (detailed in Part 4) 

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

•  HYPE short-term trade performance: HYPE executed one successful short-long trade last week (1x leverage), yielding approximately 3.25% profit (details in Table 1).
• BTC medium-term trade performance validation: Last week, the medium-term BTC strategy executed the planned position closure. After the price firmly held above the Bull-Bear Ribbon, we fully closed the medium-term short position initiated near $89,000 (1x leverage) around $75,500, resulting in a final profit of approximately 15.17%.
• Market validation of BTC price forecast: In our article last week, we stated the market would maintain a wide consolidation range between $73,500 and $79,000. The current market movement has validated our previous forecast.

1. HYPE: In-depth Analysis of Hourly Level Structure

HYPE_4H K-line Chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in Figure 1, the daily Wave V uptrend initiated from the April 2 low of $34.44 can be further subdivided into a five-segment upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe: 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, 32-33. The market is currently running the 32-33 upward segment.

2. The 4-hour chart shows a key change in price action last week: endpoint 32 ($38.88) quickly broke below endpoint 30 ($40.17). Subsequently, the market found buying support near the strong support zone around $38.5, pushing the price back above $40.17. The focus now is on the sustainability of this rebound:

• If the price can continue rising, successively breaking through $43.10 and the previous high of $45.76, the daily Wave V uptrend initiated from the April 2 low will likely continue.
• If the current rebound lacks momentum and fails to make a new high, it could form a classic trend reversal pattern: "adjustment breaks below the previous low, rebound fails to make a new high." If confirmed, this pattern would signal the end of the daily uptrend that began on January 21, potentially initiating a daily-level adjustment cycle.

2. HYPE: This Week's Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy   

1. HYPE This Week's Price Forecast:

Core view for HYPE this week: Focus on the rebound momentum and height initiated from endpoint 32 ($38.88).

If the rebound is strong, with the price effectively breaking and holding above the previous high of $45.76 (endpoint 31), it indicates ample buying power, confirming the continuation of the daily Wave V upward structure. This opens up new upside potential, with the next resistance near $50.

If the rebound is weak and the price fails to surpass the $45.76 high, be cautious of a technical "rebound without a new high" pattern. This could mean the daily uptrend initiated from the January 21 low is losing momentum, and $45.76 might mark the peak of this rally, potentially transitioning the market into a daily-level correction or consolidation phase.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

• Based on the forecast of an overall uptrend, short-term operations should follow the principle of "trade with the trend, buy on dips."
• Utilize signals from our proprietary quantitative models, using the 30-minute/60-minute timeframe for operations, allocating 30% of capital to capture long entry opportunities.
• Entry Strategy: If HYPE's price effectively breaks and holds above $43.17 this week, simultaneously with buy signals triggered by our two models, consider entering a long position. Keep the position size below 30% and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

3. Bitcoin: Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis

1. BTC Daily Level Structure Analysis: (Based on price action after the February 6, 2026 low)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 2

From the daily structure perspective, the adjustment that began from the October 2025 high of $126,200 down to the February 6 low of $60,000 has formed a clear A-B-C three-wave structure. Notably, $80,600 is not only a significant low from November 21, 2025, but also the starting point of the subsequent Wave B rebound, giving it major technical significance. Therefore, the current price is facing resistance from the $79,500 to $80,600 zone, making this area the market's core "watershed."

Wave D (Rebound Wave): Based on daily structure analysis, the Bitcoin rebound from the February 6 low of $60,000 can be tentatively defined as Wave D (a rebound wave). This rebound has been ongoing for approximately 80 trading days and reached a rebound high of $79,472 on April 22. 

As shown in Figure 2, this Wave D rebound has consistently adhered to a clear ascending channel. Its lower trendline connects the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper trendline is drawn parallel to the lower one through the high of March 17. Currently, the price has approached the channel's upper boundary.

Summary: The current price is facing dual resistance from the channel's upper trendline and the $79,500 - $80,600 resistance zone, suggesting a direct breakout is difficult. Special attention must be paid to whether the $79,500 - $80,600 area can be effectively breached. This will determine whether the rebound from the February 6 low is a technical correction or a trend reversal, thereby confirming if $60,000 is the final low of this daily adjustment.

2. BTC Hourly Level Structure Deep Dive: (Using 4-hour analysis timeframe)

Bitcoin _4H K-line Chart

Figure 3

Based on the price evolution after the March 30 low of $65,000. As shown in Figure 3, BTC has oscillated upwards from the March 30 low of $65,000. From endpoint 18 to endpoint 25, it has formed 7 structural segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, 23-24, and 24-25.

Figure 3 indicates: First, the structure from endpoint 18 to endpoint 25 is relatively complete (7 segments). Second, according to our proprietary Spread Trading Model, endpoint 25 has triggered a top warning signal (white dot in the chart). Third, according to the Momentum Quant Model, comparing the upward momentum of adjacent segments 22-23 and 24-25, the model has issued a bearish momentum divergence signal.

Summary: Based on the hourly structure analysis and the three reasons above, the probability of BTC facing resistance in this zone and subsequently undergoing a pullback is relatively high. 

4. Bitcoin: This Week's Price Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC This Week's Price Forecast:

Core View for This Week: Focus on the test outcome of the key resistance zone at $79,500 - $80,600.

• If the price breaks upwards, wait for a confirmed hold above the zone before seeking entry opportunities.
• If the price faces rejection here, the primary support target is near $76,000. A clean break below this level could signal the start of a daily-level correction.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $79,500 - $81,000 (Near the November 2025 low)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: $83,500 - $84,500 (Previous dense trading zone for long/short positions) 

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: Near $76,000         (Previous rebound high) 

    • Second Support Level: Near $73,500         (Previous key support)   

    • Third Support Zone: $69,500 - $70,500 (Previous key support)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding unexpected news impacts)

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, the current price has stabilized above the Bull-Bear Ribbon. Following strategy rules, we are pausing new medium-term position deployment this week and switching to a cash position. Patience is advised, waiting for clearer market direction before making decisions.

② Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% capital with stop-losses in place, seeking "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute timeframe for operations).

③ Given the assessment that the market is undergoing high-level consolidation with weakening upward momentum, short-term operations will continue to follow the principle of "trade with the trend, go short." To dynamically respond to complex market developments, we will strictly rely on signals from our proprietary trading models and have preliminarily formulated Plan A and Plan B for specific actions.

 • Plan A: Short on Rejection at Resistance (Sell Rallies).

    • Entry: When the price rallies into the $79,500 - $80,600 zone and triggers a rejection signal, combined with a top signal from the model, establish a 30% short position.

    • Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $81,000.

    • Exit: When the price falls to key support levels and aligns with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

• Plan B: Short on Breakdown.

    • Entry: If the price continues to correct and effectively breaks below the support near $76,000, combined with a model top signal, establish a 30% short position following the momentum.

    • Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $77,500.

    • Exit: When the price drops to support levels and aligns with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

5. HYPE: Trade Review

1. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Table 1)

Adhering strictly to our operational plan and trading signals from our proprietary Spread Trading Model and Momentum Quant Model, we executed one short-term long trade last week, resulting in a 3.25% profit.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)

Table 1

3. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy: First, the prior price action had completed a full 5-segment correction structure. Second, the Spread Trading Model had issued a strong bottom warning signal (red and white dots in the chart). Third, the Momentum Quant Model triggered a bullish divergence signal. Therefore, we entered a 30% long position at $39.91.

Exit Strategy: As the price encountered resistance near $42, and the Momentum Quant Model triggered a bearish divergence signal, we fully closed the position around $41.21.

Summary: This trade successfully yielded approximately 3.25% profit.

HYPE_60-minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quant Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trade Illustration)

6. Special Reminders​​

1.   At Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2.  At 1% Profit: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven) to protect capital.
3.  At 2% Profit​​: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4.  Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

Financial markets are highly dynamic; all market analysis and trading strategies require ongoing adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists; invest with caution. Please do not base decisions solely on this content.