Original - Odaily

Author - Azuma

At 23:00 Beijing time tonight, Jupiter, the much-watched Solana ecological transaction aggregation protocol, will officially launch its governance token JUP and open airdrop applications to millions of Solana addresses.

As another popular project in the Solana ecosystem, Jupiters airdrop has been warmed up since the Breakpoint period in early November last year. Today, it has experienced a collective surge in the Solana ecosystem, coupled with the two previous test projects mockJUP and WEN. With its outstanding performance, community users’ expectations for JUP’s airdrop are also increasing.

At the moment, the most curious question for users who are eligible to receive airdrops is most likely how to accurately value JUP and at what price they should dispose of the airdrop chips in their hands. Next, we will explore the potential price of JUP after its listing through three dimensions: pre-lanuch transaction status, liquidity distribution of the launch pool, and comparison of competing products.

Dimension 1: pre-lanuch transaction status

Previously, the derivatives trading platform Aevo had launched JUPs pre-lanuch contract trading, which was also the main price discovery venue for JUP before TGE.

Aevo data shows,The current price of JUPs pre-lanuch contract is temporarily quoted at US$0.6455. In the past month, the highest price reached US$0.8464 and the lowest price fell to US$0.2620.

However, considering that Aevo is still a niche platform for the time being, the pre-lanuch contract fluctuates greatly and the trading volume is small, the quotation of the platform has certain reference significance, but it cannot fully represent the real market price after JUP TGE.

Dimension 2: Liquidity distribution of startup pool

Yesterday evening, Jupiter co-founder Meow officially disclosed JUP’s launch page on LFG Launchpad (https://lfg.jup.ag/jup) on social platforms. Users can now check the airdrop quantity and claim countdown on this page. And set a buy or sell limit order in advance.

LFG Launchpad is a token issuance platform launched by Jupiter earlier this month. The platform has previously tested the issuance of the meme token WEN, and JUP is the second token issued through the platform. LFG Launchpad adopts Meteoras DLMM mechanism, which aims to build initial liquidity by providing unilateral liquidity and guide the community to continue investing in organic liquidity.

LFG Launchpad data display,A total of 250 million tokens have been invested in JUPs startup pool to build initial liquidity. The price range of JUP is set at 0.4032 USDC - 0.6987 USDC, with a slope curve of 1.6.

meow explains this slope interval,A slope of 1.6 means that approximately half of the JUPs in the launch pool will be distributed in the 0.4 USDC - 0.5 USDC price range.

Dimension 3: Comparison of competing products

Meow also updated key information on JUP token economics yesterday evening.The total supply of JUP is 10 billion, and the initial circulation will be 1.35 billion., of which 1 billion are used for airdrops, 250 million are used for Launchpool, 50 million are used for CEX market making, and 50 million are used for on-chain LP demand.

Next, we can compare Jupiter with some similar projects based on the above data. It should be noted that, combined with Jupiter’s existing business landscape (aggregation + contract + DCA, etc.), it is difficult to find a project that is completely consistent with its business type, so we decided to base it on its main business (transaction aggregation) and track positioning (DeFi Services) will be compared with Uniswap (UNI) and 1inch (1INCH) of the Ethereum ecosystem and Raydium (RAY) and Orca (ORCA) of the Solana ecosystem.

Based on the circulating market capitalization (MC) and fully unlocked valuation (FDV), the comparative data we obtained are as follows:

Due to the different circulation status between different projects, the data obtained according to the above framework will also have large differences, and there may even be some more extreme values. However, comprehensively, JUPs price prediction in most cases (0.209 - 0.627) There is still a large overlap with the price range given by the startup pool (0.4032 - 0.6987, half of which are concentrated in 0.4 - 0.5).

It should be emphasized that the above calculation is only a rough estimate of JUP price made by Odaily based on similar positioning projects and does not involve any trading advice.

summary

The above is Odailys preliminary analysis of JUPs opening performance after listing through three dimensions: pre-lanuch trading status, liquidity distribution of the launch pool, and comparison of competing products. When it comes to specific price estimates, what exactly does each dimension mean? How much weight it represents is a matter of opinion.

As JUP approaches, many CEXs including OKX and Bitget have successively announced that they will provide trading support as soon as possible, which may further increase the market popularity of JUP.

How the script will be interpreted in the end will be revealed tonight.