The number of JOLTS job vacancies announced yesterday decreased by 617,000 to 8.733 million in October, lower than market expectations. The previous value was also revised down, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed population also fell to 1.3 (1.2 before the epidemic = less tight) , close to the Feds long-standing standard for a normalized job market. While some market observers may attribute the lower-than-expected JOLTS data to a lower response rate, other higher-frequency employment indicators have shown a similar slowing trend. , economists estimate that current levels are just the threshold necessary to rebalance the job market and bring inflation back to the 2% range.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board 5-10 basis points in a bullish move, a rebound that had already begun before the morning data in New York, as Schnabel, a well-known hawkish official at the European Central Bank, said that due to a significant decline in inflation , can remove the option of raising interest rates. She was originally regarded as one of the most conservative members of the European Central Bank, but now her attitude has changed significantly. Just a month ago, she insisted that interest rates must continue to be raised, saying that she was the last mile to fight inflation. The road is often the most difficult. In response to this change, she quoted Keyness famous saying: When the facts change, I will change my mind, and you? She further pointed out that after three consecutive unexpectedly good inflation data , her stance changed, making the likelihood of further interest rate hikes quite slim.

With the market turning dovish across the board (priced in more than 5 rate cuts in 2024), don’t forget that previous rate cuts were often accompanied by a decline in risk sentiment. The past two rate cutting cycles caused the SPX index to move sharply lower, because rate cuts are usually related to the economy. A significant slowdown occurs simultaneously, or an unexpected crisis that is yet to be known; risk asset markets may continue to embrace the bad news is good news mantra for now, but it is possible that we are slowly approaching a turning point, after which bad news This may have a negative impact on risk.

As the year-end holidays approach, financial institutions remain cautious about balance sheet management, and the Federal Reserves continued quantitative tightening and reverse repurchase depletion have kept overall system liquidity under control. Financing rates have remained high, although the situation is not out of control. However, we can pay some attention to whether short-term funding rates will surge further at the end of the year, which may lead to a reduction in overall risk exposure and unexpected reductions in risk positions.

In terms of cryptocurrencies, the Christmas party continues, BTC is currently on its longest rally since May this year, with prices approaching $44,000, ETH is also approaching $2,300, and signs of FOMO are everywhere, such as in the DeFi space , TVL is up $15 billion from recent lows, major protocol tokens are seeing double-digit gains, and stories of unverified protocols quickly accumulating large amounts of TVL are beginning to emerge. While cryptocurrencies continue to enjoy this recovery, Also remind everyone to pay attention to safety!

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