1. Now in the halftime period of the bull market

The price of BTC is still fluctuating and falling recently. In fact, there are not few positives about BTC recently. For example, the first Bitcoin ETF purchased a total of 10,215 Bitcoins in the first week, on-chain data showed a decrease in absenteeism and huge buying, the US 1.9 trillion stimulus market is coming, and Coinbase is about to go public.

These are all great benefits, but the price of Bitcoin has not only not stabilized, but has been falling negatively. Why is this?

In the words of the violent north latitude, there is no reason. In fact, the rise is too high and the rise is too violent. BTC needs to be adjusted, and the market needs to be adjusted. He said that there is no need to find a reason for the decline, and there is no need to scare yourself. In the bull market, every time you squat is to jump higher next time.

Although there are more and more institutions allocating Bitcoin, the price rise and fall of Bitcoin will be somewhat narrowed, but when the price rises too high or too fast, it will definitely adjust (fall). Correspondingly, When the price falls too fast and the drop is relatively large, it will also be adjusted (raised). It is impossible for Bitcoin to rise infinitely unilaterally, and correspondingly, it is impossible to keep falling unilaterally. When the price rises rapidly to a certain height, someone will inevitably sell it at a profit. Similarly, when the price plummets rapidly to a certain level, It is bound to be bought by someone (or an institution).

Moreover, in Bitcoin investment, the price is also affected by leverage. When the market is in a period of rapid rise and the price keeps rising, there will always be people who increase leverage investment to obtain high yields. As the price rises higher and higher , more and more leverage is added, and when the ratio of leverage to spot is getting higher and higher, the market will become more fragile. At this time, once the price drops slightly, the market is likely to experience a stampede. For example, isn’t the Bitcoin plunge this time just an adjustment when the price is too high and leveraged funds are getting higher and higher?

Compared with the spot market, those who do leverage are basically gaining short-term profits, and they are basically fast in and fast out. When the leveraged funds are cleared after liquidation, there are more and more long-term holdings and hoarding coins , the market will basically stabilize.

This round of liquidation funds has exceeded the scale of 312 last year. Recently, the market has calmed down, the market sentiment has not been so high, and the corresponding market has become relatively healthier.

Although the market has been falling and pulling back recently, many people are still optimistic about the follow-up market. After all, the DeFi boom is far from over. There are more and more listed companies and professional investment institutions that allocate Bitcoin, and the fundamentals are still improving. the better.

In the words of Aunt Wan, it should be in the intermission period of the bull market, but there will always be some way to make everyone feel"The bull market is really coming to an end"appear in a manner.

She also said that we are often too optimistic about the local trend, but not optimistic enough about the overall trend. People will always habitually refer to recent data and experience. Take the price of Bitcoin as an example, people will always refer to BTC The recent highest price was 370,000+ for comparison. From 370,000+ to the current 290,000, it has indeed dropped a lot, but people tend to selectively ignore that the price of Bitcoin was still around 200,000 a month ago Well, if compared with the current price, it has increased by more than 40%. If the reference price is different, the mentality will be completely different. Generally speaking, we try our best to look at the overall impact.

2. The price of ETH/BTC trading pair keeps falling

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is the vane. When Bitcoin rises, other currencies generally follow suit. When the bull market is crazy, the rise of other cryptocurrencies is generally higher than that of Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin falls, other cryptocurrencies will also fall, and generally speaking, the decline will be greater, especially in a bear market, the decline of Bitcoin is much lower than that of other cryptocurrencies Yes, exchange other cryptocurrencies for Bitcoin during a bear market, which can avoid losses to a certain extent.

Therefore, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is basically used as the basic pricing currency. From the perspective of long-term trends, few currencies are always on the rise when they are denominated in Bitcoin. The increase was relatively large at that time, but in the long run, many currencies cannot outperform the increase of Bitcoin, even ETH is no exception. As the TumbleBit boss said: Don’t be surprised even if ETH falls to 0.01btc a year later, and of course don’t be surprised if it rises to 0.05.

According to the analysis logic of the TumbleBit boss: ETH is still a tool chain after all, it is not BTC, its value storage function is limited, the development of eth can only rely on defi financial services to attract users, and the value of defi depends on the number of users✖️unit User value, ie tvl. If the toolchain is too expensive for people to use normally, then the value on the chain will quickly transfer to other available toolchains, and the tvl will drop.

In the DeFi track, strong exchange public chains such as Binance Smart Chain BSC and Huobi Ecological Chain HECO have indeed appeared recently, and the development of BSC/HECO DeFi is still good, whether it is the lending segment track or going to The centralized trading subdivision track, the DeFi applications on the public chains of these two exchanges, have achieved great development recently.

However, I think other public chains may have an advantage for a while, but in the long run, ETH is still the king of smart contracts. Some emerging exchange public chains may have natural advantages in users and funds in the Defi wave, but no matter what Whether it is the degree of decentralization of the public chain, security factors, or the number of developers in the ecosystem, etc., Ethereum still has the greatest long-term advantage.

Therefore, there is no need to choose between BTC and ETH. Of course, they are all configured. As for the proportion of configuration, it will vary from person to person. I remember a big guy mentioned that according to their market value in the entire cryptocurrency market The ratio configuration is enough, I think this is indeed a very good configuration solution.