Web3 Payment Track Research Report (Part 1): A Comprehensive Breakdown of Industry Background, Protocol Standards, Major Player Positioning, and Global Regulatory Dynamics

Original Author: Rosa, Researcher at Web3Caff Research

Imagine this scenario: On a morning in 2026, an AI Agent operates quietly under your authorization—it compares prices across global data markets, calls three APIs to complete data collection, pays $0.07 to complete a transaction, calls on cloud computing power and automatically reserves $0.02 for settlement, and finally pays $0.01 to a downstream Agent that generates reports. The entire process has no bank account, no credit card, no SWIFT code, yet it clears in 4 seconds. This is not science fiction, but the millions of real transactions currently being processed by x402 and the MPP protocol.

This digital contrast is redefining "how value flows." In 2025, stablecoins surpassed the combined transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard for the first time, with $33 trillion in on-chain settlement; more than 100,000 AI Agents are running a payment economy imperceptible to humans: individual transactions are less than $0.01, but daily transaction frequency can reach millions, with fees near zero. At the same time, the global average cost of cross-border remittances remains as high as 6.36%, settlement still takes 3–5 business days, and 1.3 billion adults remain outside the traditional banking system. The industry power transition over "who defines the next-generation payment infrastructure" is escalating from a Web3 industry narrative into a structural issue for the global financial system.

This research report takes Web3 payment infrastructure as its main thread, systematically deconstructing the paradigm shift of the Web3 payment sector from "narrative-driven" to "infrastructure implementation" in 2025–2026, and answering three fundamental questions that will determine the industry's direction over the next five years: Who dominates protocol standards? Which infrastructure layers will become entry points for value accumulation? Who will hold the power to define the market amid the spiraling interaction between regulation and commerce?

Note: Due to length constraints, this research report is published in three parts: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. This is Part 1 (covering: Chapter 1 Macro Background: The Historic Turning Point of Web3 Payments, Chapter 2 Stablecoins: The Core Infrastructure of Web3 Payments), Part 2 chapters (Chapter 3 AI Agent Payments: The Emerging Machine Economy Layer, Chapter 4 Web3 Strategies of Payment Giants and Traditional Financial Institutions), and Part 3 chapters (Chapter 5 The Rise and Competition of the Stablechain Sector, Chapter 6 Global Regulatory Developments, Chapter 7 Comprehensive Conclusions and Trend Analysis).

Table of Contents

• Chapter 1 Macro Background: The Historic Turning Point of Web3 Payments
• Industry Paradigm Shift: From Narrative-Driven to Infrastructure Implementation
• Structural Pain Points of Traditional Payments and the Comparative Advantages of Web3 Payments
• Merchant Payments Have Crossed the Usability Threshold
• Chapter 2 Stablecoins: The Core Infrastructure of Web3 Payments
• Explosive Market Growth in 2025-2026
• The USD Duopoly Landscape and Reserve Yield Model Accelerate Connections to the Traditional Financial System
• Stablecoin Payment Use Cases: Rapidly Expanding from Exchange Settlements to Real Commercial Flows
• User Experience Architecture Evolution: From On-Chain Assets to Mass Payments
• The Rise of "Stablechains": Vertical Integration of Payment-Specific Infrastructure
• Chapter 3 AI Agent Payments: The Emerging Machine Economy Layer
• The Concept of Agentic Commerce and Its Payment Needs
• Agent Payment Technology Stack: Layered Architecture from Clearing to Governance
• Competitive Landscape of Major Protocol Standards
• Benchmark Case: The Landmark Significance of AWS AgentCore Payments
• Agent Payment Risks
• Chapter 4 Web3 Strategies of Payment Giants and Traditional Financial Institutions
• Stripe: Full Transformation to Stablecoin Settlement Rails
• PayPal: Dual-Track Advancement with PYUSD and AI Agents
• Visa: Dual-Track Stablecoin Strategy for Card Networks
• Mastercard: Dual-Track Advancement with Tokenized Credentials and Stablecoin Infrastructure
• Entry Paths for Traditional Financial Institutions
• Chapter 5 The Rise and Competition of the Stablechain Sector
• The Structural Necessity of Stablechains
• Positioning and Comparison of Major Stablechains
• Future Trend Speculation: Multi-Chain Coexistence Rather Than a Single Winner
• Chapter 6 Global Regulatory Developments
• United States: GENIUS Act Establishes Federal Regulatory Framework
• European Union: Full Implementation of MiCA and Market Restructuring
• Hong Kong, China: Asia-Pacific Compliance Testbed
• Horizontal Comparison of Global Regulatory Frameworks
• Chapter 7 Comprehensive Conclusions and Trend Analysis
• Assessment of Industry Development Stage
• Five Core Trends
• Future Outlook
• Key Points Structure Chart
• References

Chapter 1 Macro Background: The Historic Turning Point of Web3 Payments

Compliance Note: Stablecoins are virtual currencies (Tokens), and you should be aware that issuing or participating in Token investments is subject to varying degrees of regulatory requirements and restrictions in different countries and regions. In particular, issuing Tokens in mainland China may constitute "illegal issuance of securities," and providing cryptocurrency trading matching services or other crypto-related activities also constitutes "illegal financial activities" (readers in mainland China are strongly advised to read Compilation and Key Points of Laws and Regulations Related to Blockchain and Virtual Currencies in Mainland China). The following content is solely an objective analysis of the progress of stablecoin adoption and market feasibility strategies, and aims to explore and analyze how blockchain-based application scenarios are developing responsibly within the global regulatory environment. Therefore, please do not make any decisions based on this information, and strictly comply with the laws and regulations of your country or region, refraining from any illegal financial activities.

Industry Paradigm Shift: From Narrative-Driven to Infrastructure Implementation

The Web3 industry is undergoing a profound paradigm shift. The previous narrative of Web3 payments revolved mainly around "exploring the application of on-chain assets in the payment sector," but real-world implementation was long constrained by asset volatility, user experience issues, regulatory uncertainty, and insufficient merchant acceptance. The new change in 2025–2026 is that the industry's growth logic has shifted from asset-price-driven to compliance-increment-driven and infrastructure-embedded. Stablecoins, as digital assets pegged to fiat currency value, have effectively mitigated price volatility issues within a compliant framework, becoming the mainstream on-chain transaction settlement medium and providing 7×24 cross-border accessibility. The entry of payment giants and cloud platforms has expanded Web3 payments from native user communities to traditional commercial networks.

The key to this turning point is not the maturity of blockchain technology, but the convergence of three catalysts. First, the stablecoin market is large enough to support liquidity demand in real commercial scenarios. Second, regulatory frameworks are beginning to clarify, enabling banks, payment companies, and corporate clients to assess compliance pathways. Third, AI Agents are creating new machine payment demands, exposing structural deficiencies in traditional card networks and bank account systems when faced with micropayments, automated authorization, and pay-per-use settlement. These three factors combined have moved Web3 payments from discussions of "whether it can work" to an industry competition stage of "who defines standards, who controls entry points, and who accumulates value."

Structural Pain Points of Traditional Payments and the Comparative Advantages of Web3 Payments

The traditional cross-border payment system faces three major structural pain points: First, high costs—according to World Bank data for Q3 2025, the average fee for cross-border remittances is approximately 6.36% [1], far exceeding reasonable thresholds; Second, low efficiency—SWIFT's average settlement time is 3–5 business days, involving multiple intermediary banks with opaque nodes; Third, coverage gaps—approximately 1.3 billion adults globally are unbanked, and the traditional financial system severely underserves underbanked regions [2].

The four structural advantages of Web3 payments include: First, settlement time can shift from banking business days and correspondent bank routes to near-real-time on-chain confirmation. Second, payment networks shift from permissioned account systems to wallet address systems, potentially covering users without bank accounts or those facing difficulties in cross-border collections. Third, transactions are programmable, enabling conditional payments, streaming payments, automated reconciliation, and smart contract escrow. Fourth, the cost structure of micropayments differs from fixed card network fees, making them more suitable for new scenarios like API calls, data access, and machine-to-machine payments.

However, comparative advantages do not imply wholesale replacement. The New York Fed has noted that local fast payment systems such as FedNow, RTP, same-day ACH, Venmo, and CashApp have advantages of low cost, immediacy, and regulation in domestic payments, while the differentiation of stablecoins comes more from global reach, no bank account requirement, and on-chain transfer capability. [3] Therefore, stablecoins are most likely to first break through in scenarios where traditional systems have clear weaknesses, rather than replacing all payment methods wholesale.

Comparison between traditional payments and Web3 payments. Source: Compiled by Rosa, Researcher at Web3Caff Research

Merchant Payments Have Crossed the Usability Threshold

In 2025, merchant stablecoin payments crossed a threshold that most retailers had not anticipated. According to Artemis Analytics data (as reported by Bloomberg), the total on-chain settlement volume of stablecoins in 2025 reached approximately $33 trillion, a year-over-year increase of about 72%, surpassing the combined payment volume of Visa and Mastercard [4][5]. Even after excluding "noise" such as arbitrage and bot transfers, Chainalysis estimates the "real economic activity volume" at approximately $28 trillion, already approaching or exceeding the processing scale of traditional card organizations, and believes stablecoin payment flows could match the off-chain transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard at some point between 2031 and 2039 [4].

The reason stablecoins can approach card organizations in settlement volume lies in merchants' long-standing dissatisfaction with traditional card network costs. For every card transaction, merchants bear three layers of fees: the interchange fee paid to the issuing bank, the assessment fee paid to Visa or Mastercard, and the processor markup. Depending on the card type, transaction method, and merchant category, these three combined typically consume 1.5% to 3.5% of each sale. For example, on a $100 purchase, merchants pay an average of about $2.24 in card processing fees; for a merchant with $1 million in monthly volume, this means approximately $22,400 flows to intermediaries each month. E-commerce merchants often face even higher costs because card-not-present transactions carry higher assessment fees and fraud risk premiums. Beyond percentage fees, card settlement cycles also tie up merchants' working capital for extended periods—as of early 2026, the average card settlement time was approximately 1.9 business days (nearly 3 calendar days including weekends). For a company with $10 million in monthly volume, the roughly 3-day settlement delay creates an annual financing cost of about $25,000. There are also the hidden costs of chargebacks: regardless of the dispute outcome, each disputed transaction costs merchants $20 to $100 in fees, usually in addition to the already-shipped goods. [6]

When on-chain settlement volume can already rival card organizations, and the fees, in-transit capital occupation, and chargeback costs of traditional card networks are clearly quantifiable, adopting stablecoin payments for merchants is no longer an experimental observation but a clearly calculable economic choice—this is the mark of having crossed the "usability threshold."

Chapter 2 Stablecoins: The Core Infrastructure of Web3 Payments

Compliance Note: Stablecoins are virtual currencies (Tokens), and you should be aware that issuing or participating in Token investments is subject to varying degrees of regulatory requirements and restrictions in different countries and regions. In particular, issuing Tokens in mainland China may constitute "illegal issuance of securities," and providing cryptocurrency trading matching services or other crypto-related activities also constitutes "illegal financial activities" (readers in mainland China are strongly advised to read Compilation and Key Points of Laws and Regulations Related to Blockchain and Virtual Currencies in Mainland China). The following content is solely an objective analysis of the progress of stablecoin adoption and market feasibility strategies, and aims to explore and analyze how blockchain-based application scenarios are developing responsibly within the global regulatory environment. Therefore, please do not make any decisions based on this information, and strictly comply with the laws and regulations of your country or region, refraining from any illegal financial activities.

Explosive Market Growth in 2025-2026

The stablecoin market experienced explosive growth in 2025–2026. According to Artemis Terminal data, total stablecoin supply has grown approximately 2.6 times over the past five years since September 2021, though the growth has not been linear. Notably, nearly $100 billion was added in 2025 alone, with total stablecoin market capitalization first reaching an all-time high of $310 billion on December 12, 2025, and further surpassing $323 billion in May 2026. However, market growth leveled off during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.

Stablecoin market circulating supply trend chart. Source: Artemis Terminal

The market growth trajectory of 2025–2026 aligns with a series of significant events. On January 23, 2025, the White House issued the "Executive Order on Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology"; on July 18, 2025, the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act" (GENIUS Act) was signed into law. [7] Driven by these two major policies, the United States formally established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins.

The growth in the first half of 2025 preceded the