Bitcoin bear market enters final phase, bullish signs emerge but upward momentum remains weak

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2026-07-29 04:00

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Retail selling pressure is about to be exhausted, large holders continue to accumulate; Bitcoin has been falling for 9 months, and two more steps are needed for a trend reversal.

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Core Viewpoint: Bitcoin on-chain data shows the bear market is nearing its end. Key signals include the crossover of short-term and long-term holder cost bases, long-term holder positions hitting a record high of 84%, and the proportion of loss-making positions falling below 50%. However, the market has not fully bottomed out, and a reversal still requires multiple conditions to be met.
Key Elements:
1. The cost bases of short-term and long-term holders are converging (short-term cost dropping from $112,500 to $69,000). This indicates market dominance shifting from short-term retail investors to long-term investors, a hallmark of the bear market's final stage.
2. Long-term holders' position share has reached 84%, an all-time high, implying circulating supply scarcity (short-term liquidity at only 16%). Recent monthly accumulation of 1.29 million BTC shows mature investors are consistently adding to their holdings.
3. The proportion of loss-making positions peaked at 50% and has now fallen back to 46%. Historical data suggests a subsequent bottoming cycle of approximately 13-101 days. The market has entered the countdown to a bottom.
4. The Realized Market Variance Z-score is -2.35, an extreme low in the historical bottom 6% percentile. This reflects meager overall market profitability. Historically, such ranges often precede periods of substantial gains.
5. The short-term holding momentum indicator is bearish but shows higher lows. The bullish sentiment index is only 20 (far below 60). Prices have not broken through two key resistance levels: the True Market Mean Price and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
6. Continued selling by miners could drive the price down to $47,000. If it fails to break through the short-term high cost basis, the market might fall back to around $58,000.

原文作者：Ashrith Rao

原文编译：Saoirse，Foresight News

经历连续九个月的价格下行，比特币链上数据证明市场来到熊市尾声。

本轮行情有三大标志性特征：长短持有者持仓成本出现关键交叉、流通供给迎来前所未有的收紧、投机资金漫长且持续性地割肉离场。本次分析完全依托数据展开，研究市场从深度亏损阵痛过渡到长线资金囤币布局的全过程，并非主观情绪化判断。

交叉信号：市场话语权完成交接

链上数据面板最直观的信号是：长线持有者与短线持有者的持仓成本趋于重合，这是极具参考价值的风向标。

2026 年 7 月中旬，比特币出现经典熊市见底指标：短线持有者的已实现持仓价格相较于长线持有者持续走低。这背后代表着短线散户集体止损离场，绝非普通的图表波动。

自本轮行情高点以来，短线持有者平均持仓成本从约 112500 美元大幅跌至 69000 美元。长线持有者多为掌握更多市场信息的成熟投资者，持仓成本始终保持坚挺；而近期进场资金大规模抛售，直接造成短线持仓成本大幅跳水。

历史规律显示，这种成本线交叉往往意味着熊市最后阶段开启。风险承受能力弱的散户被市场充分出清，手握筹码的资深投资者开始主导后续市场走向。

若交叉状态能够长期维持，则代表筑底进程正式开启，其中连续三日站稳交叉区间是重要确认标准。

供给收缩：84% 筹码壁垒形成

长短持仓成本的交叉，本质是市场筹码话语权更迭，底层供给结构可以印证这一变化。

Alphractal 统计数据显示，比特币长线持有者持仓占比创下历史新高，达到 84%。这是 2016 年以来，短线交易者可动用的流通流动性第一次仅有总量的 16%。长线持仓总量是短线流通筹码的 5.2 倍，足以证明成熟投资者在市场走弱阶段坚持加仓、持仓信心充足。

流通筹码稀缺造就特殊市场格局：当下市场流动性处于历史低位，只要市场需求迎来大幅增长，比特币价格大概率会出现剧烈波动。加密量化研究机构 CryptoQuant 的数据佐证了这一判断：今年 5 月，长线持有者净持仓增量创下六年峰值，累计增持 129 万枚比特币。

筹码结构还有另一明显特征：除持仓时长 6 至 12 个月的筹码正在大批量转为长线持仓外，其余所有持仓周期的流通筹码都在持续减少，投机资金不断撤离。

底部信号确认：恐慌抛售进入倒计时

结合亏损筹码规模与已实现市值方差（RCV）模型，可以佐证市场处于熊市末期。

K33 研究机构给出关键数据：6 月 5 日，处于亏损状态的比特币流通筹码占比突破 50% 临界线；目前该比例回落至 46%。回顾历史，当亏损筹码占比冲高回落至 50% 以下，后续筑底周期普遍在 13 天至 101 天，当下已经进入底部倒计时。本轮磨底周期时长位列历史第二，种种迹象说明行情最坏的阶段大概率已经结束，而非下跌刚刚开始。

CryptoQuant 测算的已实现市值方差 Z 值为 - 2.35，该数值处于历史后 6% 的极端低位。这意味着当下市场普遍盈利微薄。复盘历史，这类区间往往是后续大额收益的前置阶段。

目前各类指标逐步共振，价格已经充分消化估值压力与宏观环境利空，但市场依旧没有出现明确的入场买点。