World Cup upsets keep appearing, and the "dumb money" in prediction markets is pure entertainment

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser（@wenser2010 ）

The World Cup, 20 days in.

Prediction market trading volumes are climbing steadily, with massive gains and losses playing out in turns. Previously, Odaily Planet Daily took stock of the "massive wins & brutal losses" cases after the World Cup kicked off, and also detailed how to build strategies and tools for copying smart money.

Today, besides laughing at the "dumb money," we want to discuss whether classic loss cases have any reverse indicator reference value.

Spain vs. Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper's 7 Stunning Saves, Whale Loses $1 Million to Earn $85,000

40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha, panting heavily, looked at the opponents on the field, his body slightly hunched, ready at any moment to parry the ball kicked his way.

For this goalkeeper valued at only €50,000, many didn't hold high hopes for him or the island nation of Cape Verde before the match. After all, their opponent was a World Cup powerhouse—the Spanish team. Their star player Lamine Yamal alone is worth €200 million, ranking first in the World Cup player value list, 4000 times Vozinha's value. Spain's total squad value is a staggering €1.2 billion, making them a pre-tournament favorite. La Liga boasts giants like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, with countless local stars.

But football isn't just a game of comparing squad values; it's a live athletic contest.

For the Cape Verde national team players, simply standing on the World Cup stage, enjoying the joy of football and the adrenaline rush of competition, was enough. (Editor's Note from Odaily Planet Daily: As commentator Guan Zeyuan shared, Cape Verde is an Atlantic island nation with a total territory of about 4,000 square kilometers. They hold football matches on each island to determine the winning team, eventually selecting the players for the World Cup, somewhat like local tournaments such as China's "Village BA" or "Super League".)

During the match, Spain fired 27 shots, with 7 on target, but ultimately, all attacks were successfully neutralized by Vozinha and his teammates. As the referee's final whistle blew, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a "0-0" draw. This surprising result left many prediction market players with nothing.

Before the match, @betoor619 invested $1 million at a rate of 92 cents to bet on "Spain beats Cape Verde." This was seen by many as a "predictive market income play," with many even expecting a "one-sided slaughter and high-scoring end."

But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, refused to accept this outcome. They played with tight coordination, compact defense, active tackling, and executed their counter-attacking strategy exceptionally well.

Ultimately, @betoor619 did not manage to earn the $85,000 from the hoped "income play," but instead lost his $1 million principal.

This match might have been the start of frequent upsets in this World Cup, where strong teams were held to draws by underdogs. Subsequently, many tournament favorites were forced into draws by lesser-known or weaker teams in the group stage, making betting on draws the best choice in the prediction market.

Recommended reading: "Whether You Know Football or Not, Betting on a Draw is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?"

Portugal vs. DR Congo Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo Fades, Smart Money Loses Over $240,000 as a Lesson

On June 18th, in Group K of the World Cup group stage, the heavily favored Portuguese team faced the DR Congo team, making its first World Cup appearance.

According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, the Portuguese men's team was ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands. Their overall strength was relatively prominent, especially with Cristiano Ronaldo, a "5-time Champions League winner, 5-time Ballon d'Or winner, 6-time World Cup participant, and all-time leading goalscorer," which boosted many fans' confidence in Portugal before the match. Many expected Ronaldo to score in this game, thereby becoming the "first player to score in six consecutive World Cups," surpassing Messi.

On the other side, DR Congo was ranked only 45th in the FIFA World Rankings. This participation marked DR Congo's return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.

Comparing player values, Portugal's total squad value exceeded €1 billion, including two "century-million-euro players" and eight top-tier players worth over €40 million. DR Congo's total squad value was around €150 million, only one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo expressed its desire to "rewrite humiliating history, at least reach the World Cup knockout stage, and enter the top 32."

Back to the game, Ronaldo was in Portugal's starting lineup, but ultimately, he had 0 shots on target from 3 attempts. Portugal as a team had only 1 shot on target from 7 attempts, showing a clear lack of attacking firepower.

Although 19-year-old youngster João Neves scored a lightning goal for Portugal within 7 minutes, during the stoppage time of the first half—when Portugal was most prone to complacency and lowering their guard—DR Congo scored a last-gasp equalizer.

Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's counter-attacking defense was also excellent, with tight man-marking. Furthermore, three center-backs averaging over 185cm in height further limited Ronaldo's effectiveness, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, ultimately failing to secure their opening win.

In the prediction market, a smart money address with a 49% win rate spent over $243,000 predicting "Portugal beats DR Congo" at an average entry price of 76 cents, ultimately ending in a loss.

In the knockout match between England and DR Congo that ended today, DR Congo initially took the lead with a counter-attacking goal. Ultimately, England narrowly won 2-1 thanks to Kane's "brace" (2 goals), narrowly avoiding a second upset where a weaker team held or even beat a stronger team.

Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde Draw: Dumb Money Bets on Cape Verde Win, Loses $80,000

In World Cup match predictions, just when you try to apply the lesson from the previous event, the trend reverses.

In their earlier group stage matches, Cape Verde overcame opponents thanks to goalkeeper Vozinha and the team's strict execution of counter-attacking tactics, subsequently holding Uruguay to a draw as well.

With this in mind, the "big brains" in the prediction market boldly predicted a Cape Verde victory before their match against Saudi Arabia.

However, ultimately, relying on their extremely resilient defensive style and a united team strategy, Cape Verde drew 0-0 with Saudi Arabia.

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, the top World Cup inverse indicator address @Zzzz87 was wrong again, predicting a Cape Verde win over Saudi Arabia and losing another $80,000. Previously, since the World Cup started, this address had lost $620,000 at one point, with its win rate dropping below 40%, and typically, the larger the position, the lower the win rate.

In the past week, @Zzzz87 learned from its losses and changed its strategy, no longer insisting on underdog upsets but instead betting on strong teams to win outright. Sure enough, as the knockout stage began, instances of strong teams being overturned decreased. @Zzzz87's "bet on the strong" strategy quickly paid off, with profit margins ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.

Therefore, although the address incurred losses of around $255,000 in the past month, its profits in the past week reached approximately $269,000.

Currently, this address holds multiple prediction events for matches like "Switzerland vs Algeria," "Spain vs Austria," "Portugal vs Croatia," and "Argentina vs Cape Verde," with purchase amounts ranging from thousands to $36,000. The outcomes will be clear tomorrow.

A Football is Round; Anything is Possible

Having looked at several cases, will the former "dumb inverse indicator" learn its lessons and transform into "smart money," or will the "top inverse indicator curse" strike again?

It's hard to say for sure. Some delete their accounts and run, refusing to be observed through the lens of "survivorship bias." Others have mixed wins and losses, or use multiple accounts for hedging.

Whether it's playing the match or predicting it, the only certainty is "uncertainty."

The outcome of the World Cup is not a simple comparison of squad values, nor a contest of national power or training systems. It does not bend to the will or financial power of external participants. Whether you follow the smart money or bet against the dumb money, you need to watch the games, adapt flexibly while enjoying them.