BIT 투자연구: 2022년 재현될까? 월드컵이 비트코인 약세장 종착점이 될 수도 있다
- 핵심 의견: 현재 비트코인 시장은 이번 약세장의 마지막 단계인 C파 하락 구간에 있으며, 50,000–55,000 달러를 핵심 바닥 구역으로 예상한다. 인플레이션 정점은 차기 강세장의 핵심 거시적 촉매제가 될 가능성이 높다.
- 핵심 요소:
- A-B-C 조정 구조에서 A파 하락(60,000–69,000 달러)과 B파 반등(83,000 달러)이 완료되었으며, 현재는 C파 하락 단계에 있다.
- C파 목표 구역은 50,000 달러 부근이며, 저점은 2026년 6월부터 7월까지의 FIFA 월드컵 기간 중 나타날 것으로 예상된다.
- 공포·탐욕 지수는 역사적 저점까지 하락하여 2022년 약세장 바닥 구조와 유사하지만, 주기 지표는 아직 최종 반전 신호를 보내지 않고 있다.
- 비트코인의 실현 가격(Realized Price)은 54,591 달러로, 시장이 저평가 구간에 진입했는지 판단하는 중요한 지표이며, 일반적으로 가격이 이 수준 아래에 장기간 머무르지 않는다.
- 거시 환경은 2022년과 유사하며, 인플레이션은 여전히 위험 자산을 억누르는 주요 요인이다. 인플레이션이 정점을 찍으면 시장 전환이 촉진될 수 있다.
The market is currently in the final stage of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C correction structure proposed in early 2026 is progressing as expected: the A wave declined to the 60,000–69,000 USD range, the B wave rebounded to the 80,000–90,000 USD range and formed a temporary peak around 83,000 USD, and the market has now entered the C wave decline phase.
From a sentiment indicator perspective, the Fear & Greed Index has fallen back to historically low levels, still showing high similarity to the 2022 bear market bottom structure. Although the market is currently closer to a "tradable bottom," cycle indicators have not yet issued a definitive reversal signal. During this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term volatility to the conditions for forming a bottom and the macro catalysts that could emerge for the next bull market.
Bear Market Enters Final Phase: 50,000–55,000 USD Likely to Be a Key Zone
From a technical structure perspective, the 2025 top formation bears a strong resemblance to 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a break below the 21-week moving average, a phase of rebound, and then a renewed weakening. Historical experience suggests that true bottoms are often accompanied by declining volume and narrowing trading ranges, rather than quick reversals.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at historical lows, the stochastic indicator has entered deeply oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price is approaching the area two standard deviations below the weekly moving average, with the 61,576 USD level potentially offering interim support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the final market bottom has not yet been seen.
Combined with Elliott Wave theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C correction structure. With the B wave rebound ending after rising to 83,000 USD in mid-May, the current C wave decline is unfolding. The target zone likely points towards 50,000 USD, with the low expected around the time of the FIFA World Cup (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the 50,000–55,000 USD range is likely to be the core bottom area for this bear market.
Peak Inflation Could Be a Key Catalyst for the Next Bull Market
From a macroeconomic perspective, the current market environment shows some similarities to 2022, with inflation remaining the primary factor suppressing risk asset performance. In the previous cycle, the peak of inflation was a crucial turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may appear again in this cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately 54,591 USD. This metric is considered an important reference for determining when the market enters an undervalued zone. Historical experience shows that while the price may briefly dip below this level, it typically does not stay there for long. Meanwhile, cycle indicators have not yet confirmed the bottom, and the actual low may still require another 1 to 3 months for confirmation.
If the price completes its bottoming process and reclaims the 21-week moving average, while monthly cycle indicators show a positive reversal, it could confirm the start of a new upward cycle. Until then, the market will remain in a bottom-building phase.
Overall, this bear market is nearing its end. The A-B-C correction structure, cycle indicators, and the macro backdrop all point in the same direction: the 50,000–55,000 USD range likely corresponds to the value zone of this bear market, while the realized price of 54,591 USD represents an important long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the bottom depends on inflation trends and confirmation from cycle indicators, historical experience suggests that true bottoms often don't present themselves as obvious buying opportunities. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cycle signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin around the 50,000–55,000 USD range.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
