特朗普第38次喊话“即将达成协议”，全球股市迎来TACO式暴涨

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

After the U.S. military launched a surprise attack on Iran, Trump threatened to "take tough measures against Iran" and then canceled them again, Trumpfor the 38th time declared that a "final agreement is imminent," prompting global financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, to wake up as if from a dream and welcome another "TACO-style rally."

This morning, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher. The Dow rose 1.90%, the Nasdaq rose 3.42%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.73%; crypto-related stocks also broadly rose, with COIN up 4.99% intraday and HOOD up 7.40% intraday. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher. South Korea's KOSPI index opened up 519.25 points, or 6.69%, at 8283.2 points, triggering a circuit breaker before expanding its gains to 8%; Japan's Nikkei 225 index opened up 880.53 points, or 1.37%, at 65097.80 points. Possibly influenced by this news, oil prices tumbled 4.3%, while gold prices rebounded 3.1%.

As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran enters its fourth month, global financial markets, especially U.S. stocks, are pricing in positive developments like the end of the war in advance, leading to a recent series of "news-driven rallies" gaining momentum.

Macro Background: Trump's "Negotiation for Change," US CPI Hits 3-Year High, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Fade

Overall, the macro background for today's stock market rally mainly includes a turning point towards peace negotiations in the war, the release of the US CPI data, and the waning expectations of a Fed rate hike.

Trump's Remarks Show "TACO Power" Again

According to the latest news overnight and this morning, Trump first canceled the planned strikes and bombing operations against Iran originally scheduled for that evening; subsequently, he stated in a post that relevant consultations had been submitted to and approved by Iran's highest leadership; the final terms (both in overall concept and specific details) have been approved by all relevant parties, including the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, etc. Although Iran and Israel subsequently denied this, the market embraced it.

Furthermore, Trump stated regarding the Iran issue that "an excellent agreement has been reached," and said the relevant documents are in their final stages, expected to be finalized and signed within the next few days. He also mentioned that the agreement might be signed in Europe, possibly this weekend, with US Vice President Vance attending. And "once Iran signs the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will open." Although negotiations with Iran "took too long," financial markets have currently chosen to "trust first."

US Core CPI Annual Rate Hits 3-Year High

This Wednesday, the US May CPI data was released, showing:

• Month-over-month CPI (seasonally adjusted): 0.5%, expected 0.50%, previous 0.60%.
• Month-over-month Core CPI (seasonally adjusted): 0.2%, expected 0.30%, previous 0.40%.
• Year-over-year CPI (not seasonally adjusted): 4.2%, expected 4.20%, previous 3.80%, the highest since April 2023.
• Year-over-year Core CPI (not seasonally adjusted): 2.9%, expected 2.90%, previous 2.80%, the highest since September 2025.

Some analysts believe that US inflation has returned to the "4-handle" territory, and the peak of war-related inflation may be in the past; CPI has risen sharply for the third consecutive month, highlighting the increasing expenditure pressure on households, as there are signs more consumers are dipping into savings to cover expenses. Following the data release, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June stands at 96.3%, significantly easing previous expectations of a Fed rate hike. Trump loudly commented on this data: "I love inflation."

Expectations for Fed Rate Hike This Year Significantly Eased

After the CPI data release, the latest news shows that the market has fully priced out expectations of a Fed rate hike this year.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "US inflation remains uncomfortably high at 4%, but the weaker-than-expected core data does relieve some pressure. With rising energy prices being the main driver and housing costs easing, we haven't seen clear signs of broader second-round effects yet, which should allow the Fed to remain patient."

Afonso Borges, an analyst at Bank Julius Baer, also pointed out that the modest rally led by short-term Treasuries following Wednesday's CPI report "makes sense," as the better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Fed rate hike later this year.

Japan and South Korea Markets: Retail Investors Borrow to Buy the Dip, Yen Continues to Weaken

Turning attention to the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, after experiencing market declines in the previous two days, they are currently in a phase of significant rebound.

On June 10, according to a Yonhap News Agency report, due to negative US stock market news and a slump in semiconductor stocks, South Korea's KOSPI index underwent a sharp two-day adjustment. During this period, overdraft account balances at major commercial banks increased by over 600 billion Korean won (approximately 2.67 billion RMB). Analysts believe this indicates that retail investors, anticipating a market rebound after the sharp stock price drop, began using overdraft accounts for "borrowing to invest."

According to Nikkei News, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, the highest policy rate level since 1995. Possibly influenced by this news, the USD/JPY pair rose 0.2% intraday, with the current exchange rate at 160.168.

Overall, capital flows in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets are still steadily increasing, but the BoJ's rate hike could gradually tighten liquidity in the Japanese capital market. Bank of America analyst Shusuke Yamada stated that if the BoJ takes a hawkish stance and raises rates at its meeting next week, it is expected to support the yen. He noted that the market has already priced in the rate hike expectations.

Looking Ahead: Uncertain War Situation, Institutions Warn of Deep Corrections, Stock Market Faces Major Liquidity Test

Although today's volatile "positive news" from Trump has stimulated rallies in many global stock markets, a closer look at various dynamic factors reveals that market sentiment remains in a phase of cautious optimism and preparation for deeper corrections.

No Turning Point in US-Iran Situation

Ali Akbar Dareini of the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran stated that despite Trump announcing the cancellation of strikes on Iran, there has been no change in the situation. From Iran's perspective, before any negotiations begin and before Iran prepares to discuss the nuclear issue, the US first needs to take confidence-building measures, which hasn't happened. The reality shows that the US has taken no steps to de-escalate tensions. Iran's stance is that it will not compromise under coercion.

Institutional Bullishness Shifts, Beware of Deep Correction

Alex Altmann, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Barclays, who has previously called for "holding stocks steady" during market volatility and accurately timed rebounds, recently issued a rare cautious warning. In his latest market analysis, he stated that due to technical overbought conditions, excessive sentiment, and macro environmental pressures, he has turned bearish on the short-term outlook for US stocks. He believes the US market is currently in the "middle of a hill" of a structural correction, with the biggest concern being the severe disconnect between retail sentiment and macro reality. He even stated bluntly, "The S&P 500 index could face a total deep correction of 6%-7%."

Recent data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey shows that the bearish percentage among investors surged to 47.7% in the past week, approaching this year's high of 52% (March 18), far exceeding the historical average of 31%.

In addition, several institutions have recently expressed bearish views: Previously, BofA Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about US stocks, as a growing number of bearish signals suggest the market is nearing a top.

In a report dated June 5, a team of strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote that about 70% of bear market signals have already been triggered, consistent with the average level seen at historical market tops. The S&P 500 is statistically overvalued on 17 out of 20 valuation metrics, with 8 metrics exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Furthermore, high-PE stocks have significantly outperformed low-valuation stocks, which strategists view as a sign of excessive speculation. Within the technology sector, the gap between the best and worst-performing quintiles has widened to its highest level since February 2000.

Of course, this view was met with open opposition from the "new stock god" Serenity, who believes BofA's bearish tone should be viewed cautiously, as a flood of negative news often arises when institutions need liquidity.

Regarding the South Korean stock market, on June 10, the open interest in put options on the Kospi 200 index has recently surged relative to call options, approaching levels that have previously signaled a market decline. As of the close of the previous trading day, the ratio of protective puts (used to hedge against declines) to speculative calls approached 2.5 times, the highest level in five years. This indicator has only touched this threshold a few times before. It is worth noting that South Korean retail investors sold over 1 trillion won in overseas stocks in the first week of June, which might indicate investors are returning to the domestic market.

SpaceX IPO Approaching, US Stock Market Faces Liquidity Test

According to the latest news, retail investor subscriptions for the SpaceX US IPO have exceeded $100 billion. Combined with previous reports that "SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion, with 30% of shares offered to individual investors," the current retail subscription ratio has already exceeded the offering by over 4 times.

US investment manager Jim Chanos stated that investors are pricing in grand narratives rather than realistic earnings prospects, and SpaceX's valuation multiple has far exceeded that of Tesla (TSLA.O). Additionally, institutions like Franklin Templeton, and sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have joined the IPO subscription wave. According to foreign media reports, several institutional investors have each placed orders for approximately $10 billion or more worth of shares. Two days ago, the SpaceX IPO had already attracted over $250 billion in investment demand, higher than its planned $75 billion fundraising target, with oversubscription nearing 4 times; extrapolating based on market trends, the oversubscription ratio could climb to 10 times by its official listing this Friday.

"Wall Street Oracle" and Bitmine Board Chairman Tom Lee commented on this, stating that at this stage, US stock investors are actively selling existing stocks in their portfolios and accumulating cash to participate in this blockbuster IPO. The resulting capital diversion effect continues to ferment, potentially being the main culprit behind the recent weakness in US stocks. Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, also stated, Participating in the SpaceX IPO is akin to buying cryptocurrencies about 15 years ago; you could either lose your entire principal or achieve exponential returns.

Despite concerns about market liquidity tightening triggered by the SpaceX IPO, according to market sources, S&P Dow Jones Indices believes SpaceX is eligible for rapid inclusion in some of its indices. At that time, SpaceX could become a "phenomenal giant" in the US stock market.

In summary, global stock markets will continue to be influenced by factors such as capital liquidity, domestic market policies, and global geopolitical changes like the US-Israel-Iran conflict. In the short term, be wary of Trump once again staging market manipulation maneuvers of "intimidating bearishness" and "TACO-style bullishness."