Polymarket 개시 테스트, Kalshi 승인 획득, 예측 시장 쌍두마차의 무기한 선물 등장

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

Prediction markets are moving into perpetual contracts, finally transitioning from official announcements to implementation.

Last week, Polymarket and Kalshi both achieved key milestones. Polymarket's perpetual contract Beta version has been opened to some users for testing, with access to be gradually expanded over the next 4 weeks; Kalshi received CFTC approval to list a Bitcoin perpetual contract, BTCPERP.

In fact, Odaily previously discussed this trend in "Polymarket and Kalshi Dive into Perpetuals, While Exchanges Also Eye Prediction Markets": prediction market platforms are expanding into perpetuals, while exchanges are simultaneously moving into event trading, blurring the lines between the two. In "US Government Unlocks Regulated Crypto Perpetuals for the First Time: What It Means for the Market," we also analyzed the significance of Kalshi's BTCPERP approval for the US compliant crypto derivatives market.

Now, both directions have more concrete developments. One is starting with a small-scale product test; the other has secured regulatory approval first. Their paths differ, but the signal is the same: prediction market platforms are no longer content with just event trading; they are beginning to move into higher-frequency, more standardized derivatives markets.

Polymarket Perpetual Contract Opens Beta, Gradual Rollout Over Next 4 Weeks

Polymarket Officially Launches Beta Testing

Last week, Josh Stevens, VP of DeFi Engineering at Polymarket, stated on X that the Polymarket Perps Beta is now accessible to some users on polymarket.com and will be gradually expanded over the next 4 weeks. He later added that some users who applied via direct message have been added to the test list, and while a few more spots might open up, no new testers will be added for now.

Currently, Polymarket has not disclosed the full list of trading pairs, leverage limits, margin rules, or funding rate mechanisms supported by Perps. This suggests that this Beta is more of a small-scale product test rather than a full-scale public launch. Polymarket's priority now isn't short-term trading volume, but ensuring this new trading function runs stably.

This is evident from Josh Stevens' comments. When recruiting test users, he mentioned wanting feedback on aspects users "don't like" and UI elements that could be improved. In other words, Polymarket is currently focused on the order flow, position display, mobile adaptation, and overall smoothness of interaction. For a feature akin to exchange perpetuals, product experience itself is the primary hurdle.

Based on feedback from some test users on X, the Polymarket Perps Beta already supports basic position opening. One user mentioned opening a long BTC leveraged position in the test interface, and screenshots show assets like cryptocurrencies and indices appearing. However, these are still early test feedbacks, and the final trading pairs and specific features await official announcements.

Early Feedback Focuses on Access, Liquidity, and Trading Experience

Early feedback primarily highlighted issues with test eligibility and KYC. The Beta phase is limited to select users, requiring early applicants to request access via direct message on X, and some testers need to complete KYC verification. While community chatter suggests restrictions might be adjusted for the official version, current issues like "need verification," "didn't get early access," and "will this affect future airdrops or points" have already caused some user dissatisfaction.

A more core concern is liquidity. Perpetual contracts aren't just about being able to open a position; the real experience hinges on order book depth, slippage control, and trade execution stability during high volatility. Community users have commented that Perp liquidity is the true test.

Another issue is user habits. Polymarket's core users are accustomed to buying Yes or No in binary event contracts and waiting for settlement. But Perps introduces leverage, liquidation, funding rates, and ongoing position management. While professional traders are familiar with this, it presents a steep learning curve and higher risk of loss for the many new users entering from prediction markets.

Additionally, Polymarket has previously faced user complaints regarding latency, order lag, and ghost fills. This leads some to worry that similar issues in a Perps scenario could have a more significant impact than in regular prediction markets. In prediction markets, a few seconds of delay might mean missing a better price; in high-leverage trading, latency, abnormal fills, or unstable position display can directly affect profit and loss.

Therefore, Polymarket Perps is currently in a phase of adaptation. On one hand, early test feedback isn't overwhelmingly negative, with many users appreciating the clean and intuitive interface. On the other hand, access barriers, liquidity, leverage risks, and trading stability are all issues that must be resolved before a full-scale launch.

Kalshi Opens Perpetual Contract Gateway with Compliance License

Unlike Polymarket's small-scale testing, Kalshi's progress is more directly about regulation.

On May 29, the US CFTC approved Kalshi to list a Bitcoin perpetual contract. This contract references the spot price of Bitcoin and will be listed for trading as a futures product. According to the announcement, after reviewing under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act and Regulation 40.3, the CFTC found BTCPERP to comply with relevant regulations and the core principles for Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).

The significance of this step goes beyond Kalshi adding another BTC contract. It effectively places a product primarily existing on offshore exchanges and crypto-native platforms into the framework of a US regulated exchange. Perpetuals are among the highest-volume and most familiar derivatives in crypto markets, yet such products have long been absent from the US compliant market. This approval from Kalshi essentially cracks open the door for "US compliant crypto perpetuals."

This continues Kalshi's established strategy. It doesn't aggressively acquire users with novel products and then seek regulatory compliance retroactively. Instead, it secures regulatory approval first, then uses its compliant status to expand trading categories. Previously, Kalshi packaged event contracts related to politics, economics, weather, and sports as regulated financial products under its DCM license. Now, it's replicating this path for crypto perpetuals. In other words, Kalshi's ambition is no longer just a prediction market, but a broader compliant derivatives exchange.

However, a regulatory green light also means clearer boundaries. Alongside approving BTCPERP, the CFTC noted that perpetuals are not suitable for all asset classes. For assets not yet covered, market participants must still submit for review under Regulation 40.3. This means Kalshi can build an advantage through regulatory certainty, but it will find it difficult to rapidly list a vast number of trading pairs like offshore exchanges or crypto-native platforms. Its expansion will be slower and more subject to regulatory pacing.

This highlights the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket seems to validate market demand first, then gradually address compliance boundaries. Kalshi, conversely, secures regulatory space first, then uses that certainty to drive product expansion. The former's advantages lie in crypto-native traffic and product speed; the latter's strengths are its US compliant identity and institutional narrative.

Therefore, the BTCPERP approval is not just Kalshi adding a new trading product; it's a signal of its identity shift. Kalshi is transitioning from a "prediction market platform" towards a "regulated derivatives exchange."

After the Perpetual Contract Gateway Opens, the Real Test Begins

Both Polymarket and Kalshi advancing perpetuals simultaneously isn't fundamentally about adding a new feature to prediction markets. It's about pushing their business boundaries further towards the exchange model.

Prediction markets themselves are not short of trading scenarios. Elections, sports, macro data, crypto prices, corporate events, and breaking news can all be packaged into tradable markets. Polymarket and Kalshi have already proven event trading is a highly profitable business. But perpetuals open up another layer of incremental growth: they are more standardized and better suited to capture the capital and trading habits of mature traders. For these platforms, pursuing Perps isn't because prediction markets are unprofitable, but to build a more established derivatives business alongside event trading.

However, this path is challenging. By entering perpetuals, Polymarket and Kalshi are no longer competing just against other prediction markets but against mature crypto trading platforms like Hyperliquid, Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Users will directly compare liquidity, slippage, matching engine stability, leverage experience, and risk management capabilities. A prediction market's brand and traffic do not automatically translate into competitiveness in contract trading.

So, the real test for perpetuals isn't whether the platform can list more new trading pairs, but whether it can convert event-driven traffic into trading volume. Only when users open the platform not just for a major event but are willing to trade volatility and manage positions here long-term, will prediction market platforms have truly found their way into the exchange business.