Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong Stock Market Expected to Face Over HK$2 Trillion Unlock Wave

Odaily Planet Daily News Goldman Sachs stated that with IPO lock-up periods expiring, the Hong Kong market may face approximately $274 billion (about HK$2.13 trillion) in new share supply over the next 12 months. The report expects robust stock demand to absorb this incoming supply. Goldman Sachs noted that dual demand from passive index funds and southbound capital constitutes a significant liquidity buffer, effectively mitigating the selling pressure from the unlocking of restricted shares.

Historical experience shows that in the 3 to 6 months following the unlock, stock prices typically experience a moderate decline of 4% to 7%, while returns show severe divergence. The short-term performance after unlocking is mainly determined by the proportion of unlocked shares to total equity, whereas medium-term returns are structurally driven by the proportion of freely floating shares post-unlock and the stock's performance before unlocking. Companies with a high proportion of cornerstone holdings, especially domestic cornerstone investors, often face greater selling pressure after the lock-up period expires. (Jinshi Data)