比特币「反弹结束」，正式进入熊市后期？

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin fell 13% this week, with profitability collapsing sharply, realized losses surging, and spot sellers regaining control. U.S. spot ETF investors have fallen back into unrealized losses after encountering resistance near their cost basis, while the options market continues to price in high risk.

Summary

• Bitcoin fell 13% over the past 7 days, with the price retreating to the midpoint between the realized price and the true market mean. The short-term holder cost basis fell below the true market mean for the first time (first since January 2022), confirming late-stage bear market characteristics.
• The 7-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, nearly identical to the panic wave in February; meanwhile, the 90-day moving average never broke the threshold of 2, confirming the rebound to $82k was merely a bear market rally, not a structural turning point.
• Total daily realized losses surged to $1.35 billion, with $770 million coming from long-term holders capitulating at cycle top levels, indicating that the supply redistribution process is accelerating but is not yet complete.
• Bitcoin was rejected almost precisely near the aggregate U.S. spot ETF cost basis of $83k, pushing the average ETF investor back into unrealized losses and reinforcing this price level as a significant overhead resistance.
• Spot market selling pressure has intensified, with the 7-day spot volume delta turning significantly negative, reaching its weakest level since February, indicating that despite the pullback, sellers continue to dominate the order book.
• Implied volatility continues to compress while the volatility risk premium widens, with the options market pricing in higher future volatility than recent actual market movements.
• Skew remains in the put premium territory, but the recent sell-off has not triggered a significant increase in downside hedging demand.
• Market maker positioning is concentrated near the current spot price, with Bitcoin in the zone of maximum negative gamma, and capital flows consistently favoring protective demand.

Macro Insights

U.S. job openings in April rose to 7.62 million, the highest in nearly two years and 750,000 more than market expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4.45%, and the market prices in a more than 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end, with no further rate cut expectations for the year. The U.S. dollar index holds above 99. Financial conditions are tightening at the margin, not easing.

Bitcoin has absorbed this shift more intensely than any other risk asset, with the price dropping 13% over the past week to the $67,000 range. U.S. spot ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $4.21 billion, the largest institutional redemption wave of 2026. Institutions are de-risking ahead of the price decline, not reacting after the fact. Friday's non-farm payroll data is a key observation point. Strong data will continue the current distribution pressure; weak data could provide the first conditions for a reset.

On-Chain Insights

Returning to Bear Market Territory

These macro headwinds have directly translated into deterioration on the chain. The 13% decline over the past week pulled the price back from the true market mean of $77.8k, which tracks the cost basis of actively traded supply and historically marks the dividing line between bull and bear markets. At the current price of $67k, located in the middle of this range, the failure to hold above the true market mean once again confirms that the continuation of the bear market remains the dominant pattern.

Notably, the short-term holder cost basis has now fallen to $76.4k and dropped below the true market mean. This structure last appeared in January 2022. This configuration indicates that new buyers are accumulating below the key average market valuation, a classic characteristic of the late bear market phase: the duration of the correction begins to pressure investor conviction, and historically, structural failures or large-scale capitulation are more likely at this stage.

Profitability Collapses Under the Decline

Building on the above structural deterioration, the short-term capital flow environment has shifted sharply due to the recent price decline. The 7-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio has contracted to 0.29, indicating that loss realization is now overwhelmingly dominating on-chain spending behavior. This is almost perfectly consistent with the panic wave in early February. On May 7th, this 7-day moving average had spiked to 3.16 as investors took profits during the $82k rally, but the 90-day moving average never broke the threshold of 2 that corresponds to true bullish capital flows. This divergence between short-term and medium-to-long-term readings is a clear signal of a rebound lacking structural conviction, consistent with a local top formation within a bear market rather than a credible structural shift. The subsequent drop back to 0.29 further confirms this assessment.

New Buyers Under Pressure

Resistance near the bear market top range has pushed recently accumulated supply directly into loss territory. The heatmap of the short-term holder cost basis distribution shows the supply density of recent buyers at different price ranges, revealing the areas of concentrated short-term holder cost basis, i.e., where behavioral pressure is most likely to occur.

As the price has fallen back to around $67k, it is approaching the lower edge of the supply cluster accumulated since February. In this area, many short-term holders are watching their unrealized gains shrink to breakeven or turn into losses. Those who accumulated near the local top of $78k-$82k are facing the most direct pressure. Whether they choose to hold or capitulate will determine if the current price level can absorb the selling pressure or if it will give way to a deeper decline.

Loss Realization Accelerates Across Groups

As recent buyers are pushed back to the lower end of the three-month range, the pressure of loss realization has expanded from the newest accumulated supply to a broader base. The current pullback to $67k has pushed total daily realized losses to $1.35 billion, a significant acceleration from the baseline levels during the previous consolidation period.

Of this, $770 million per day comes from long-term holders who bought before January 2026, reflecting that cycle top buyers continue to capitulate as the bear market lengthens. The remainder comes from recent buyers who accumulated in the $67k-$82k range during 2026 and are being forced to exit at a loss as the price falls below their cost basis.

As the bear market matures, this pattern of long-term holders capitulating and passing supply to new buyers at lower prices is a recurring and necessary feature of the cycle bottoming process. However, the current pace of loss realization suggests this process is not yet complete.

Off-Chain Insights

Breaking Below the ETF Cost Basis

The latest Bitcoin rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate U.S. spot ETF cost basis of $83k, transforming the level that previously acted as support into a clear resistance. This suggests that a large number of ETF investors who were previously in unrealized losses used the rally to reduce positions or exit at breakeven.

This rejection is particularly noteworthy because ETF flows have been one of the dominant sources of demand in this cycle. When the price struggles to reclaim the average holder's cost basis, it often signifies that supply from trapped investors is exceeding new demand, creating overhead resistance.

Looking ahead, the aggregate ETF cost basis remains a key observation level. A decisive reclaim would bring the average ETF investor back into profit and could improve the overall sentiment of this group. Until then, the failure to hold above this level indicates that ETF positions are still a headwind, and investors are using strength for de-risking rather than accumulating.

Spot Buying Disappears

Spot market flows have deteriorated sharply over the past two weeks, with the 7-day spot volume turning negative and reaching its weakest level since the sell-off in February. This shows that aggressive sellers are once again dominating the spot order book, further reinforcing the weakness of the recent price action.

What is particularly noteworthy about the current movement is that it occurs after sustained spot-led accumulation during April and early May. During that rally, buyers consistently lifted offers, pushing spot volume delta into positive territory and helping Bitcoin recover from the mid-$60k range to $80k. That demand impulse has now faded, and with the price failing to break higher, sellers have regained control.

A persistently negative spot volume delta is often accompanied by either a capitulation event or the early stages of a broader trend reversal. Currently, it suggests the market is still in a distribution phase, with spot participants using rallies to sell rather than accumulate. A significant improvement in spot demand remains one of the key signals for a sustainable recovery.

Futures Liquidations

The latest market correction triggered one of the largest liquidation events of this cycle, with over $400 million in leveraged long positions forcibly closed as Bitcoin fell below $70k. While painful for late entrants, such events often help clear excess leverage from the system and reset market positioning.

Notably, the scale of this liquidation is still lower than those witnessed during the corrections in October 2025 and February 2026, suggesting that leverage was not excessively stretched heading into this decline. Historically, large-scale long liquidation events often coincide with local exhaustion points, as forced selling pressure cascades through the derivatives market and clears out weak hands.

The key question going forward is whether spot demand can step in to absorb the supply. If liquidation-driven selling pressure begins to fade and spot buyers return, the market could emerge with a cleaner positioning backdrop and a lower leverage overhang, creating conditions for a more sustainable recovery.

Implied Volatility Continues Downward

From an implied volatility perspective, despite the breakdown in the spot price, the dominant trend remains compression across the entire term structure. The 1-month tenor has fallen from approximately 38% to 34%, while 3-month and 6-month tenors have also compressed by about 3 volatility points each over the past two weeks.

This movement reflects the market's continued reluctance to pay a premium for options, even after Bitcoin broke below its recent range. Although front-end volatility experienced brief reactions during sharp spot price moves, these were quickly sold into, maintaining the broader downward trend.

The term structure remains in contango, with far-dated volatility still trading at a premium to the front end. This suggests that traders continue to view the recent price weakness as a local event rather than a catalyst for a broader volatility repricing.

Volatility sellers remain dominant, and despite the price weakening, demand for protection has not accelerated.

Volatility Risk Premium Nears Three-Month High

As implied volatility has fallen, the relationship between implied and realized volatility tells a different story. Despite Bitcoin experiencing a period of volatility, the options market continues to price in significantly higher future volatility than what recent spot price action has delivered.

1-month implied volatility has climbed back to around 42%, while realized volatility remains near 32%. The result is that the volatility risk premium has expanded to near its highest level in the past three months.

This shift has been particularly pronounced during the recent sell-off. While realized volatility picked up as the spot price broke key support, implied volatility rose even faster, reflecting new demand for options and protection.

The options market continues to assign a higher probability to future volatility than recent price behavior alone would suggest, keeping the volatility premium at a significant elevated level.

Put Premium Maintains High Levels

With the volatility risk premium widening, the skew shows where traders continue to concentrate their options demand. Despite the spot price breakdown, put options consistently remain more expensive than call options across the entire term structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's latest decline further confirms the view that the market remains fragile, with weakness evident across profitability, investor behavior, ETF positions, and spot market demand. The rejection near the aggregate ETF cost basis of $83k indicates many investors are still trapped above the current price, creating overhead selling pressure that continues to cap Bitcoin's rallies.

Meanwhile, realized losses are accelerating, long-term holders are capitulating in size, and spot order flow has turned decisively in favor of sellers. While the recent liquidation event helped clear some leverage from the system, there is little evidence yet of a durable demand response capable of absorbing the resulting supply.

The options market tells a similar story. Traders continue to pay up for downside protection and future volatility, but without the panic that typically accompanies sharp drawdowns. Until spot demand strengthens, ETF investors regain profitability, and selling pressure begins to ease, the market may remain vulnerable to further downside and continued consolidation within the broader bear market structure.