BTC Poised for a Rebound, HYPE Surges Toward New Highs | Guest Analysis

In last week's market, Bitcoin and HYPE moved in two completely different directions. The Binance hack on October 30 caused Bitcoin to drop 4.12% in a single day, briefly breaking below the lower rail of the descending channel during the session before being quickly pulled back, reaching a low of $76,265, just about $135 away from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. On the same day, HYPE held the $75 short-term watershed, and on the back of positive news rallied nearly 20% at its peak intraday, approaching an all-time high. This week's review continues to track using daily-wave and 4-hour Chan Theory structure: whether Bitcoin's daily wave ⅰ correction is nearing its end, and after HYPE forms a new structure, where the pullback would present a suitable dip-buying opportunity.

Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views:

• Bitcoin daily-level trend structure analysis (see Part One for details)

• Bitcoin hourly-level trend structure analysis (see Part Two for details)

• Bitcoin this week's market forecast and medium/short-term trading strategy (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE hourly-level trend structure analysis (see Part Four for details)

• HYPE this week's market forecast and short-term trading strategy (see Part Five for details)

1. Bitcoin Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis

Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

1. Review of Last Week's Assessment

①. At that time, the price was running along a short-term descending channel. The lower rail was formed by connecting the two stage lows of September 24 and October 15, and the upper rail was drawn as a line parallel to the lower rail based on the October 5 high.

②. The daily-level correction that began from the September 21 high was expected to unfold in a three-wave structure, with the price currently running within the wave ⅰ correction.

Based on actual price action, the market is moving along the anticipated direction.

2. Current Trend Structure Analysis

①. "Pin Bar" Breakdown, Lower Rail Support Valid

On October 30, Bitcoin fell sharply due to sudden negative news, recording a daily bearish candle with a 4.12% decline. Notably, the price momentarily broke below the lower rail of the descending channel during the session before being quickly pulled back, and it is currently still running above the lower rail. This "false breakout + quick recovery" pin bar pattern indicates strong support at the lower rail.

②. Moving Average Confluence Zone Forms Multiple Supports

As shown in Figure 1, two important moving averages (white line, red line) cross near $77,200, providing important support for the price.

③. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

From the July 1 low of $57,820 to the September 21 high of $87,399, the price has completed a full five-wave advance structure, with a cumulative gain of 51.2% (approximately $29,579).

Using this as the measurement basis, the Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:

• 0.382 retracement: $76,130

• 0.500 retracement: $72,610

• 0.618 retracement: $69,120

Last week's correction reached a low of approximately $76,265, only about $135 above the 0.382 retracement level, essentially satisfying the conditions for a wave ⅰ pullback.

④. Bottom Zone Determination

In summary, the correction that began on September 21 has entered the bottom zone. After a short-term rebound, a secondary bottom may form, and a renewed break below $76,265 cannot be ruled out; however, regardless of whether it breaks, it is a high-probability event that the daily wave ⅰ correction will terminate in the $75,000–$76,500 zone, and there is no need to panic at this level.

3. Daily Correction Three-Wave Framework (Projection)

①. Wave ⅰ (corrective wave): September 21 to present

• Starting point: $87,399

• Has run for 41 trading days (still ongoing)

• Maximum decline within the range: 12.73%

②. After the wave ⅰ correction ends, a wave ⅱ rebound is expected, followed by a potential wave ⅲ correction (terminal corrective wave).

2. Bitcoin Hourly-Level Trend Structure Analysis

In last week's review, we conducted a systematic analysis of the 4-hour trend structure based on the Chan Theory system. After a week of price action, what changes have appeared on the chart? Below we provide continuous tracking and in-depth interpretation.

Figure 2 Bitcoin _4-Hour Candlestick Chart

1. Seven-Segment Correction Upgraded to Nine-Segment Decline

As shown in the figure, last week's review projected that if the subsequent pullback segment endpoint 9 no longer broke below endpoint 7, the daily correction would likely terminate at endpoint 7; otherwise the market might continue to probe lower. Based on last week's actual price action, hit by negative market news, panic selling appeared on the chart, and segment (8-9) fell almost vertically, not only breaking below endpoint 7 but also briefly probing to $76,265 before temporarily stabilizing and rebounding. At this point, in the 4-hour framework, the correction has extended from seven segments to nine segments, further lengthening the correction time.

2. Current 4-Hour Trend Structure Panorama

①. Complete Structure Division

The daily correction that began from the September 21 high of $87,399 (endpoint 0) can be divided on the 4-hour chart into a ten-segment corrective structure from (0-1) to (9-10).

②. Construction and Positioning of the Descending Pivot

• Pivot construction: Based on the overlap of the five segments (1-2) through (5-6), a standard descending pivot is formed.

• Spatial positioning: Pivot upper rail: approximately $84,361; lower rail: approximately $82,556.

③. Two-Dimensional Analysis of Momentum and Volume

The current (9-10) rebound segment is in progress, and bottom signals need to be examined from two dimensions:

• Volume dimension (red bar area): Comparing correction segments (6-7) and (8-9), in the "momentum quantification model," the red bar areas corresponding to them have clearly formed a volume bottom divergence.

• Momentum dimension (white indicator line): The white signal lines corresponding to them have not yet shown a bottom divergence, i.e., while the price made a new low, the momentum indicator also simultaneously made a new low.

3. Comprehensive Assessment:

Since the bottom signals from the two dimensions have not resonated, the price may still see fluctuations at this position. However, from a larger-cycle perspective, the price has now completed a nine-segment descending structure, the correction time has been satisfied, and the probability is extremely high that the daily wave ⅰ correction will terminate above $75,000.

3. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC This Week's Market Trend Forecast

Core view for this week: Focus on the termination point of the daily wave ⅰ correction and the subsequent wave ⅱ rebound.

2. Core Resistance Levels

• First resistance zone: Near $79,200 (previous important level)

• Second resistance zone: Near $82,500–$84,500 (previous important level)

• Third resistance zone: Near $87,500 (previous important level)

3. Core Support Levels

• First support level: Near $75,000 (previous important support level)

• Second support level: $69,100–$70,500 zone (previous important support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Figure 3 Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model:

• Stay in cash and observe: As shown in Figure 3, the current trend is a deep pullback phase after the price broke above the "long-short channel," and the chart shows that the price has not yet issued a valid stabilization signal at the lower rail of the channel. Therefore, the medium-term strategy is mainly to stay in cash and observe.

• Market validation of trading strategy: The current pullback trend strongly validates the correctness of the previous principles of "do not chase rallies, stay in cash for the medium term, and wait for pullback signals."

②. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop-loss points, and seek "price spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operating timeframe).

③. In short-term operations, combined with the current trend structure analysis, this week's strategy is mainly "buy the dip." We have prepared the following A/B trading plans in advance.

• Plan A: Light position trial long in strong support zone.

• Entry: If this week the price shows a clear stabilization pattern in the $75,000–$76,500 zone, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom signal, a light long position may be established, with position size controlled within 30%.

• Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the rebound reaches important resistance levels combined with model signals, positions may be closed in batches to take profit.

• Plan B: Light position trial long in lower support zone.

• Entry: If the $75,000 support is lost, when the correction reaches the next support zone of $72,500–$73,000 and shows a clear stabilization pattern, and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom signal, a light long position may be established, with position size controlled within 30%.

• Risk control: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the rebound reaches important resistance levels combined with model signals, positions may be closed in batches to take profit.

4. HYPE Hourly-Level Trend Structure Analysis

In last week's review, we conducted an in-depth analysis of HYPE's trend structure from both the weekly and 4-hour level perspectives, and explicitly stated that the support near $75 was the short-term watershed for the price at that moment, and provided two trend projections based on "whether it effectively breaks below." Last week's actual price action validated the "bullish path," i.e., last week, with the strong support at $75 plus the catalyst of positive market news, the price launched a strong rally from this position; on October 29, the single-day maximum gain was nearly 20%, with the high approaching an all-time high.

Below we will further analyze the current trend structure within the 4-hour framework combined with chart changes.

Figure 4 HYPE_4-Hour Candlestick Chart

1. Decomposition of the Daily Correction in the 4-Hour Chart

As shown in Figure 4: The daily correction that HYPE began from the September 23 high of $97.98 can be decomposed on the 4-hour chart into a seven-segment descending structure from (89-90) to (95-96).

2. Construction of the Descending Pivot

①. The pivot is formed by the overlap of three segments: (90-91), (91-92), and (92-93);

②. Pivot range: Upper rail $88.07, lower rail $84.54;

③. (89-90) is the pivot entry segment, and (93-94), (94-95), and (95-96) together form the extension of the pivot exit segment.

3. Bottom Signal Resonance at Endpoint 96

Comparing correction segments (93-94) and (95-96), the proprietary "momentum quantification model" shows that the volume bottom divergence (red bar area) signal and the momentum bottom divergence (white indicator line) signal resonate at endpoint 96, directly triggering the strong rebound of segment (96-97).

4. Short-Term Reversal Confirmation

The upward segment (96-97) rose strongly, breaking through the endpoint 91 high in one move and approaching an all-time high. Based on this, it is determined that the daily correction that began from the September 23 high of $97.98 has terminated at $75, and the price is currently running a new daily-level trend structure.

5. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE This Week's Market Trend Forecast

①. Core Resistance Levels:

• First resistance level: $97–$100 zone

• Second resistance level: Near $105

②. Core Support Levels:

• First support level: $84.5–$88 zone

• Second support level: $75–$77 zone

• Third support level: $68–$70 zone

③. Core View for This Week:

This week's focus is to observe whether the price correction can stabilize in the $84–$88 zone.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy

For this week's short-term trading, the core idea is "do not chase highs, buy the dip with light positions." Specific strategies are as follows:

①. Stabilization within the pivot range, light position trial long:

If the price stabilizes in the $84.5–$88 zone and continues to rise, those in cash may consider a light position trial long, with position size controlled within 30%, targeting the first resistance zone of $97–$100, while setting a stop-loss and executing it strictly.

②. Stabilization at lower support, go long:

If the price loses the $84.5 support, then when the correction reaches the $80–$82 zone and forms a stabilization pattern, those in cash may consider a light position trial long, with position size controlled within 30%, setting a stop-loss and executing it strictly.

6. Special Notes

1. When opening a position: Set an initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure principal safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in the price, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are ever-changing, and all market analyses and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are solely for the purpose of a personal trading journal; they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. Markets carry risk, and investment requires caution—please do not make decisions based on this article.