Bitcoin Mining Profitability Calculator: Real-Time Estimates of Hashrate Revenue, Electricity Costs, and Shutdown Price

Overview

A mainstream 270 TH/s mining rig now generates roughly $10.5 in gross revenue per day. This figure comes from the real-time dashboard of Luxor's Hashrate Index, where the current Hashprice stands at $39.05 per PH/s per day, network hashrate is approximately 1,014 EH/s, and the projected difficulty is 132.72 T. Meanwhile, data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin was quoted at around $83,750 on October 13, dipping to near $81,000 at one point during the session.

The price isn't far from its all-time high, yet miners' per-unit revenue has been squeezed to near historic lows. CoinShares' Q2 2026 mining report records that Hashprice hit an all-time low of $27.7 per PH/s per day in June, compared with a high of about $63 in July 2025. The same report estimates that the weighted average cash cost for listed mining companies is approximately $75,500 per bitcoin. This means that for some miners, mining is no longer a business of "price goes up, you make money," but rather a marginal calculation determined jointly by electricity prices, machine efficiency, and network difficulty.

What really needs to be worked out are three numbers: how much this machine can mine per day, how much electricity eats into it, and under what conditions this equation turns from positive to negative.

Key Takeaways

Daily revenue per machine can be calculated with a single multiplication. Convert the miner's hashrate into PH/s and multiply by the current Hashprice to get daily gross revenue. At 270 TH/s, that's 0.27 times 39.05, which comes to about $10.54 per day.

Electricity is the only variable that linearly eats into revenue. A machine with 3,645 W power consumption uses 87.48 kWh per day. For every one-cent increase in electricity price, daily costs rise by about $0.87, or 8% of gross revenue.

The break-even electricity price is about 11.8 cents per kWh. After deducting a 2% pool fee, this machine's revenue divided by its power consumption gives the maximum affordable electricity price. Beyond that number, you start losing money on electricity.

The break-even bitcoin price moves linearly with electricity prices. At 6 cents per kWh, bitcoin would need to fall to about $41,400 to hit the shutdown line; at 9 cents, that line moves up to about $62,100; at 12 cents, the shutdown line is about $82,900, already above the current price.

Difficulty increases directly dilute returns. mempool.space shows the next difficulty adjustment is expected to rise 4.82%. Assuming price and electricity costs remain unchanged, per-machine revenue will decline by roughly the same proportion.

Mining company costs are far higher than per-machine electricity costs. Among the all-in costs disclosed by CoinShares, Riot is approximately $113,500 per bitcoin, CleanSpark about $135,700, and MARA about $163,900. The gap comes from depreciation, hosting fees, and infrastructure amortization.

Why Mining Revenue Has Fallen to Around Ten Dollars a Day

Hashprice measures the purchasing power of unit hashrate

Hashprice refers to how many dollars of revenue each PH/s of hashrate can generate per day. It compresses three variables—bitcoin price, network difficulty, and transaction fees—into a single number, making it a better reflection of miners' real situation than looking at price alone. It's entirely possible for the price to rise while Hashprice falls, as long as network hashrate grows faster, the new hashrate will dilute the gains from higher prices.

The trajectory in 2026 is a textbook example of this structure. CoinShares' report records that network hashrate peaked at about 1,160 EH/s in October 2025, then fell to 879 EH/s by July 13, 2026, with difficulty dropping to 127.48 T at one point—about 18% below the October 2025 record. The contraction in hashrate should have improved per-unit revenue for surviving miners, but the bitcoin price fell to $58,400 by the end of the quarter during the same period. The two forces offset each other, pushing Hashprice to a historic low in June.

Recovering hashrate is taking back share

The current situation differs from July. Hashrate Index shows network hashrate has returned to about 1,014 EH/s, with block times shortened to 9 minutes 32 seconds—a direct signal that hashrate is growing faster than difficulty. Based on this, mempool.space predicts the next adjustment will be a 4.82% increase, with 552 blocks remaining until the adjustment.

For a single mining rig, this 4.82% is not an abstract number. A difficulty increase means the same hashrate accounts for a thinner share of the network. Assuming price and fees remain unchanged, daily revenue will drop by roughly the same magnitude. Based on the aforementioned $10.54 daily revenue, it would fall to about $10.04 after the adjustment, while electricity costs won't decrease by a single cent. For more on the relationship between hashrate, difficulty, and cycle positioning, you can refer to our systematic overview of bitcoin market cycles.

How to Actually Calculate the Revenue of a Mining Rig

Five inputs determine the entire result

A complete calculation requires only five inputs: miner hashrate, total power consumption, electricity price, pool fee rate, and bitcoin price. The first two are determined by hardware—just check the manufacturer's specs. Electricity price depends on your contract or region. Pool fees typically range from 1% to 3%. And the bitcoin price changes constantly.

Take Bitmain's Antminer S21 XP as an example. Hashrate Index's hardware review lists specifications of 270 TH/s hashrate, 13.5 J/TH efficiency, and approximately 3,645 W total power consumption. The efficiency metric itself encapsulates the relationship between the first two—13.5 J/TH means consuming 13.5 joules to produce one terahash per second. The lower the number, the more power-efficient.

A complete walkthrough using the S21 XP

The first step is converting hashrate into the same unit as Hashprice. 270 TH/s equals 0.27 PH/s. Multiply by the current $39.05 to get gross revenue of about $10.54 per day.

The second step is calculating electricity. 3,645 W running continuously for 24 hours consumes 87.48 kWh. At 5 cents per kWh, electricity costs $4.37; at 6 cents, $5.25; at 9 cents, $7.87; at 12 cents, $10.50. For reference, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's monthly electricity report shows the average industrial electricity price in July 2026 was 9.77 cents per kWh, up 4.7% year-over-year.

The third step is deducting the pool fee. At 2%, the pool takes about $0.21.

Subtracting all three gives net profit. At 5 cents per kWh, you net $5.96 per day, or about $2,175 annualized; at 6 cents, $5.08; at 9 cents, it drops to $2.46, less than $900 annualized; at 12 cents, it's negative $0.16—meaning every additional day of operation loses a little more money. The same machine, simply because electricity went from 5 cents to 12 cents, goes from consistent profitability to net loss. This is why mining farm locations always revolve around electricity prices.

The difference between working backward from the difficulty formula and using Hashprice for quick estimates

Hashprice is good for quick estimates, but it's a constantly changing market price that implicitly incorporates current difficulty and fee levels. To understand where revenue comes from, you need to go back to the protocol-level formula: bitcoin produced per PH/s per day equals 86,400 seconds times 1 to the 15th power, multiplied by the block subsidy, then divided by the product of difficulty and 2 to the 32nd power.

Plugging in the current difficulty of 132.72 T and the block subsidy of 3.125 BTC, the result is approximately 0.000474 BTC per PH/s per day, which corresponds to about 0.000128 BTC for a 270 TH/s machine. Converted at a bitcoin price of $81,573, this roughly matches the $10.54 given by Hashprice, with the small remaining difference coming from fees and statistical methodology.

It's worth noting that the implied network hashrate derived from difficulty is about 950 EH/s, lower than the 1,014 EH/s from real-time monitoring. This gap is precisely the source of accelerating block times and the upcoming difficulty increase, and it also explains why actual short-term returns will be slightly below the theoretical value calculated at current difficulty.

How to Draw the Two Break-Even Lines

Break-even electricity price

This line answers the question: "At what electricity price should I shut down?" The method is dividing daily revenue after deducting pool fees by daily power consumption. In the aforementioned example, $10.54 minus 2% gives $10.33, divided by 87.48 kWh, yielding about 11.8 cents per kWh.

The real-world implication of this number is quite direct. At the EIA-reported industrial average of 9.77 cents, this machine still has about two cents of safety margin. But if your electricity contract is above 12 cents, the machine can no longer cover electricity costs at the current Hashprice. CoinShares' report also provides a reference for older models: the break-even electricity price for the S19 XP fell from about 12 cents per kWh in December 2024 to 7.7 cents a year later. The older the model, the faster this line moves down.

Break-even bitcoin price

This line answers the question: "At what bitcoin price should I shut down?" The method is dividing daily electricity costs by the daily bitcoin output after deducting pool fees. In the aforementioned example, the machine produces about 0.0001267 BTC net per day.

At 5 cents per kWh, daily electricity costs of $4.37 divided by that output gives about $34,500; at 6 cents, about $41,400; at 9 cents, about $62,100; at 12 cents, about $82,900. That last number is already above the current bitcoin price, which is precisely the reality for miners paying high electricity rates right now.

There's an easily overlooked conclusion here: the break-even bitcoin price has a strictly linear relationship with electricity price. Double the electricity price, and the shutdown line doubles too. So when someone asks "at what price will bitcoin miners capitulate," the question itself has no universal answer—it depends on which type of miner you're asking about.

Why both lines move simultaneously

A difficulty increase simultaneously raises the break-even bitcoin price and lowers the break-even electricity price, because it reduces the same output. A block subsidy halving has an even greater impact—one halving effectively cuts per-unit-hashrate output in half, causing both lines to jump by a similar magnitude at the same time.

To verify your calculations amid market volatility, the most direct approach is to keep real-time prices at hand. Open the live BTC market and plug in your electricity price to run the numbers

The Structural Impact of Block Subsidies, Difficulty, and Fees

The April 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block, which is the starting point for all current calculations. At 144 blocks per day, the network's daily new supply is about 450 BTC. A report by The Block notes that fees at one point fell to about $300,000 per day, accounting for less than 1% of miners' total revenue. This means that for the foreseeable future, the subsidy remains the absolute dominant source of revenue, and fee fluctuations have limited impact on per-machine calculations.

Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, roughly once every two weeks, with the mechanism designed to bring average block time back to 10 minutes. This design ensures that no matter how much hashrate floods in, bitcoin's issuance schedule won't change. The cost is that all miners' per-unit revenue is forever in a competition of mutual dilution. The revenue model of any mining rig is essentially a bet that its own cost curve will move down faster than others'.

The next halving is expected in 2028. CoinShares mentions in its report that the market typically sees a round of hashrate expansion about a year before a halving. For those evaluating the payback period of equipment investments, this timing means the effective profitability window of equipment needs to be calculated separately using two sets of parameters—before and after the halving.

What Listed Mining Companies' Cost Curves Tell Us

The per-machine model only accounts for electricity, while listed companies' financial statements also include depreciation, hosting fees, labor, and infrastructure amortization. This is why the two sets of numbers differ so dramatically. CoinShares estimates that the weighted average cash cost for listed mining companies in Q2 2026 was about $75,500 per bitcoin, already above the quarter-end price of $58,400. On an all-in cost basis, Riot Platforms is about $113,500 per bitcoin, CleanSpark about $135,700, IREN about $141,600, and MARA Holdings about $163,900.

These numbers explain why mining companies are pivoting so aggressively. CoinShares estimates that the same one megawatt of power capacity used for AI business generates about $1.5 million in annual revenue, versus about $500,000 for mining. That's a threefold gap, and capital naturally flows to the former.

IREN's financial reports provide the clearest example. According to Benzinga's analysis on October 12, the company's mining revenue was $578.2 million in fiscal year 2026 ending June 30, while AI cloud service revenue grew from $16.4 million in the prior fiscal year to $128.8 million. Total revenue rose from $501 million to $707 million. Net loss for the same period was $702.6 million, including $638.8 million in non-cash impairment charges, primarily related to retired mining equipment. The company says its contracted annualized revenue for 2026 capacity has reached $4 billion and plans to substantially complete its transition by December 31.

For investors using mining stocks as a bitcoin proxy, this means the correlation is changing. When most of a company's capacity is used to lease compute to AI customers, its stock price will increasingly reflect data center leases, financing costs, and delivery schedules rather than daily Hashprice fluctuations.

Risks, Scenarios, and What to Watch

Risks beyond the model

A calculator gives a number precise to the decimal point, but nearly every input is changing. Difficulty adjusts roughly every two weeks, meaning today's calculated returns need to be recalculated two weeks later. Equipment depreciation is another often-underestimated cost—IREN's $638.8 million impairment represents an entire generation of equipment being written down to zero. Hosting contracts may also include electricity price escalation clauses and minimum usage commitments, making actual costs