U.S. Stocks Weekly Report 09.12-09.17 | Fed Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points, Goldman Sachs Says "Not Economically Necessary," Year-End S&P Target Still at 8,000

特邀专栏作者

2026-09-20 15:30 (UTC+8)

This article is about 4104 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

The main theme for U.S. stocks this week was liquidity rather than AI. The labor market weakened, Waller hinted that a September rate hike may not be necessary, and the probability of a rate hike fell back to about 66%. The three major indices rebounded, Bitcoin surged to $81,379, crypto-linked stocks HOOD and MSTR led gains, while Broadcom's AI earnings were impressive but its stock price closed lower.

AI Summary

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Core View: This week, the main theme for U.S. stocks shifted from AI to liquidity. Weakening employment data cooled rate hike expectations, risk assets rebounded collectively, and crypto-linked stocks far outpaced AI stocks, though elasticity works both ways.
Key Elements:
1. ADP private employment for August rose only 38,000 (vs. 48,000 expected), while ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings also weakened in tandem, as the labor market continued to release cooling signals.
2. Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation eases, he is willing to keep rates unchanged. The probability of a September rate hike fell back from about 66%, the three major indices rebounded, and Bitcoin surged to $81,379, a near four-month high.
3. Crypto-linked U.S. stocks led gains: Robinhood (HOOD) rose 19.7% for the week, Strategy (MSTR) gained 14.3%, and Robinhood Chain RWA daily trading volume hit a record high of $390 million.
4. Broadcom (AVGO) AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% year-over-year to $16.7B, but Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B slightly missed expectations. The stock fell 3.1% after earnings, with slower recovery in non-AI businesses becoming a new pricing variable.
5. Zscaler (ZS) beat expectations across the board in its earnings report, but still fell 3.0% for the week and is down 19.3% year-to-date, with fundamentals and stock price continuing to diverge.
6. Crypto assets have longer duration, offering greater valuation elasticity when discount rates fall, but also sharper declines when direction reverses—as evidenced by MSTR still being down 7.4% year-to-date.
7. Next week, focus on 9/10 PPI and 9/11 CPI, which will determine the direction of the 9/15-16 FOMC decision. If inflation rebounds, the current logic will immediately reverse.

This week, the main theme in U.S. stocks wasn't AI—it was liquidity.

ADP private employment rose by just 38,000 in August, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened in tandem. After the labor market repeatedly signaled cooling, Fed Governor Waller stated he would be willing to keep rates unchanged if inflationary pressures ease—the probability of a September rate hike quickly fell from about 66%, and the knife hanging over risk assets was temporarily put away.

The market's reaction was immediate and dramatic. On September 3, all three major indices rebounded across the board, with the Dow posting its best single day in nearly a month; Bitcoin spiked intraday to $81,379, hitting a nearly four-month high. And the biggest gainers weren't AI leaders—they were U.S. equities tied to the crypto chain: Robinhood (HOOD) rose 19.7% for the week, and Strategy (MSTR) gained 14.3%.

In the same week, Broadcom (AVGO) delivered earnings showing AI semiconductor revenue up 221% year-over-year, yet its stock closed down 3.1%. Putting these two things together is what's truly worth studying this week.

1. Key Sectors and Tickers This Week

Macro Snapshot

Three key macro signals this week:

· ADP August private employment up just 38,000 (expected +48,000); ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened in tandem, with labor market cooling signals appearing consecutively.

· Fed Governor Waller's remarks—willing to keep rates unchanged if inflationary pressures ease; September rate hike probability quickly fell from about 66%; on September 3, all three major indices rebounded across the board, with the Dow posting its best single day in nearly a month.

· Bitcoin spiked intraday to $81,379, hitting a nearly four-month high, while gold strengthened in tandem; long-end yields and the dollar both retreated, with risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together—a rare occurrence.

AI Compute / Chips

Broadcom (AVGO) | -3.1% this week · +3.4% YTD

Broadcom (AVGO) reported Q3 revenue of $29.59B, up 86% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $3.32, beating the expected $3.24. AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B, up 221% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter, with the company specifically noting expanding business with Anthropic and OpenAI. Q4 AI semiconductor guidance further accelerates to $21.7B, up 236% year-over-year.

The numbers were nearly perfect, but the stock fell 3.1% after earnings. The reason lies beyond AI: Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B came in slightly below the market expectation of $35.03B, with non-AI businesses recovering slower than expected.

AI Security

Zscaler (ZS) | -3.0% this week · -19.3% YTD

Zscaler (ZS) reported Q4 revenue of $898 million, up 25% year-over-year, beating the market expectation of $877 million; adjusted EPS of $1.19, beating the expected $1.09; ARR reached $3.77 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with net new ARR of $246 million in the quarter. First-quarter guidance for the new fiscal year also came in above market expectations.

The earnings themselves were flawless, but the stock still closed down 3.0% for the week and is down 19.3% year-to-date. The divergence between fundamentals and stock price is what makes this name most worth watching going forward.

Crypto / Brokerages

Robinhood (HOOD) | +19.7% this week · +9.7% YTD

One of the strongest bulls in U.S. stocks this week. Bitcoin breaking $81,000 drove a surge in trading volume, sending Robinhood (HOOD) up 19.7% for the week. More notable is the on-chain data: on September 2, Robinhood Chain real-world asset (RWA) tokens saw $390 million in single-day trading volume, including $217 million in memecoin-stock trading pairs and $127 million in tokenized stocks, both hitting all-time highs; network 24-hour user fees reached $3.75 million, also a record peak.

Retail investors aren't just back—they're trading with new products.

Strategy (MSTR) | +14.3% this week · -7.4% YTD

This week's gain clearly outpaced the coin price itself, showing that when rate hike expectations recede, the beta of Bitcoin-holding companies gets amplified most thoroughly. But note that MSTR is still down 7.4% year-to-date—the same leverage that amplifies gains also amplifies losses when direction reverses.

EVs / Autonomous Driving

Tesla (TSLA) | +7.6% this week · -14.0% YTD

On September 3, Tesla (TSLA) unveiled the production version of the Cybercab in Austin—a two-seat autonomous vehicle with no steering wheel and no pedals, targeting a price below $30,000. The market reacted positively, with the stock surging that day for its best single day in nearly three months, up 18% over the past month.

However, TSLA is still down 14.0% year-to-date, and whether the narrative can translate into actual deliveries and revenue remains the key question ahead.

2. Stock Spotlight

Robinhood (HOOD): Outperforming the Coin Price in a Single Week—That's the Leverage of the Business Model

Bitcoin broke $81,000, and Robinhood (HOOD) outperformed the coin price itself for the week—this isn't a coincidence, it's the leverage of the business model.

Robinhood's revenue is directly tied to trading volume, and trading volume scales non-linearly in a bull market. This week, Robinhood Chain tokenized assets saw $390 million in single-day trading volume and $3.75 million in user fees, both hitting all-time highs, showing that retail investors aren't just back—they're trading with new products. Once the rate hike alarm is lifted, every transaction on this chain becomes profit.

What's worth watching further is the tokenized stocks line. $127 million in single-day volume isn't large by traditional brokerage standards, but it represents an entirely new revenue curve whose regulatory framework is still taking shape. If this segment continues to scale, HOOD's valuation logic will no longer be just "beta to the crypto market."

Broadcom (AVGO): AI Delivered a Perfect Score, But the Market Is Starting to Question the Other Half of the Business

AI semiconductors at $16.7B in a single quarter, up 221% year-over-year, with Q4 guidance accelerating to $21.7B—the numbers are nearly perfect, yet the stock fell.

The problem isn't AI—it's everything outside of AI. Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B came in slightly below the market expectation of $35.03B, with non-AI businesses (VMware, broadband, enterprise storage) recovering slower than expected. When a company's AI narrative is already fully priced in, the market starts questioning the other half of the business.

This is the second test that all AI beneficiary stocks will eventually face: AI growth is fast enough, but can it be fast enough to offset the weakness in non-AI businesses? Next week's Oracle (ORCL) earnings will be another sample of the same question.

3. This Week's Discussion

Discussion 1: The Worse the Jobs Data, the More Stocks Rally—This Year's Market Reaction Function Has Been Inverted

In previous years, weakening employment meant recession fears—this year it's the exact opposite.

· Different policy backdrop: Warsh's Fed is discussing rate hikes, not cuts. September rate hike probability once hit about 66%, and rates remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Under this premise, the risk weighing on stocks isn't recession—it's tightening.

· So bad news is good news: When jobs data softens, the rate hike knife gets put away first. ADP at just +38,000 and Waller's dovish comments led the market to immediately rebuild risk exposure, with the Dow posting its best single day in nearly a month on September 3.

· What to watch next: Only by understanding this reaction function can you comprehend why bad news is driving rallies. Next week's 9/10 PPI and 9/11 CPI are the final variables determining the 9/16 FOMC—if inflation data rebounds, this logic will immediately reverse.

Discussion 2: Same Liquidity Rebound—Why Is the Crypto Chain Rallying Harder Than AI?

Bitcoin broke $81,000, with Robinhood (HOOD) up 19.7% for the week and Strategy (MSTR) up 14.3%—far outpacing the negative returns of Broadcom (AVGO) and Zscaler (ZS) over the same period.

· The reason is duration: AI stocks' cash flows are already being realized, with a significant portion of their valuation coming from visible current profits; crypto assets' value is almost entirely in the distant future, so when the discount rate falls, valuation elasticity is naturally greater.

· But it's bidirectional: When direction reverses, it falls just as fast. The crypto chain is the most sensitive thermometer for liquidity expectations, not the most stable position—this is already clearly written in the fact that MSTR is still down 7.4% year-to-date.