SpaceX returns above its offering price—will it fall below $100 again this year?

As SpaceX's stock price recently climbed back above its $135 IPO price, a question has begun to surface: Will SpaceX fall below its IPO price again this year, or even drop below $100?

To answer this question, it's necessary to first review how this rebound came about.

1. The Selling Wave Didn't Materialize: Being Able to Sell Doesn't Mean Being Willing to Sell

The biggest concern previously hanging over the market was the possibility of concentrated selling by employees and early investors after the lock-up period expired—especially since the first wave of unlock restrictions came as scheduled after the earnings report was released in early August.

So what happened? The anticipated large-scale selling pressure never appeared, and the stock price rose rather than fell.

This confirms a commonly overlooked truth: unlock events never equal selling, especially for companies with strong long-term prospects. Musk and early investors maintain high confidence in the company's long-term outlook, and their willingness to hold has not changed due to the unlock—being able to sell doesn't mean they will sell. And when the "post-unlock concentrated selling" threat that had been hanging over the market was removed, the disappearance of uncertainty itself became a positive catalyst.

2. What's Severely Undervalued Is the Computing Empire Hidden Behind the Rockets

SpaceX's fundamentals have been subject to obvious market undervaluation.

While everyone was focused on Musk's rockets and Starlink satellites, the most overlooked element is the AI computing landscape SpaceX is building. According to the latest disclosed financial reports and strategic plans, SpaceX plans to launch up to 8 GW of computing capacity. At current market prices, each GW of computing power is valued at approximately $50 billion—if all 8 GW comes to fruition, that corresponds to a massive revenue scale of $400 billion.

To put this number in perspective: over the next 12 to 24 months, SpaceX could generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue from selling AI computing power alone. Tesla's current annual revenue, by comparison, is only around $100 billion—meaning this would be equivalent to creating several more Teslas.

3. A Further Vision: Bringing Computing Power into Orbit

Beyond ground-based computing, SpaceX's long-term narrative has an even bigger dimension of imagination: Orbital Compute is moving from concept to reality.

And sending things into space happens to be exactly what SpaceX has been doing for over two decades. Launch costs, payload capacity, satellite constellation networking—barriers that others would need to learn from scratch are all SpaceX's existing advantages.

4. Wall Street Has Already Made Its Move: Median Price Target of $225

Institutional sentiment shifts are more honest than stock prices. Wall Street is accelerating its integration of SpaceX into institutional investment frameworks, with multiple investment banks already issuing price targets: a median of approximately $225, with a range spanning from $190 to $800—Goldman Sachs at around $205, JPMorgan at around $225, and Morgan Stanley at around $300.

As analyst coverage, valuation models, liquidity, and potential index inclusion gradually improve, SpaceX is undergoing an identity shift: from a "Musk concept stock" to an asset that institutional investors must place on the same allocation sheet alongside Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.

5. Final Thoughts

Back to the opening question: Will the stock fall below its IPO price again this year?

Looking at the bearish side first: the most dangerous unlock window has already passed smoothly, long-term holders have held their positions steady, the value reassessment of the computing business is just beginning, and institutional allocation capital is entering—the scenario of the stock dropping back below $100 in the short term is indeed rapidly becoming less likely.

But the caveats must also be stated frankly: SpaceX's current valuation has already priced in high-growth expectations for multiple business lines, including Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As share supply increases, the "scarcity premium" will gradually dilute. Whether the stock can continue to rise from here will no longer depend on "can't buy it," but rather on the speed at which fundamentals are delivered, and whether institutional capital can continuously absorb the new supply of shares.

The first half of the rocket story has been told. In the second half, the question is how the computing ledger will be written.

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