BIT Research: Bitcoin Returns to Bull Market—Will $82,000 Be the Breakthrough Point for the Next Rally?

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has seen a notable recovery, with total market capitalization rising from $2.21 trillion to $2.64 trillion, and daily trading volume climbing from $40 billion to as high as $162 billion. For a momentum-driven crypto market, heightened trading activity tends to reinforce market sentiment and further push prices upward.

However, daily trading volume has since pulled back to approximately $109 billion. Whether it can hold sustainably above the $100 billion mark remains a key gauge of market momentum. If it falls below this level, a short-term pullback could occur; but looking at the broader market structure, Bitcoin has already shaken off its bear market structure and entered a new bull cycle. Overbought signals alone do not necessarily mean the rally is over.

Billion-Dollar Trading Volume Returns, But Fresh Capital Inflows Remain Limited

Stablecoin market capitalization remains an important indicator for tracking fiat capital inflows into the digital asset market. At present, overall changes have been limited, with only Circle's USDC recording modest growth. By comparison, between August 2024 and October 2025, USDT's market cap grew from $120 billion to $196 billion, while USDC rose from $35 billion to $75 billion. Since October 2025, similar capital inflows have not yet re-emerged. Therefore, whether stablecoin market cap can resume expansion remains a key metric for determining whether this rally is driven by fresh capital or short-term leveraged speculation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market cap dominance has largely held within the 58%–60% range over the past few months, with a slight uptick in August. Although certain altcoins have posted notable gains, the conditions needed for a broad "altseason"—retail capital inflows, consistently expanding trading volume, and sustained fiat inflows into stablecoins—have not yet materialized. As such, relative to high-beta digital assets, maintaining Bitcoin as a core allocation continues to offer more favorable risk-adjusted returns.

Options Market Flashes Bullish Signal, $82,000 Becomes the Next Key Level

Recently, Bitcoin's options skew has flipped from deeply negative to positive, reflecting increased demand for call options. This shift in the options pricing structure is the first such signal since October 2025. Meanwhile, implied volatility for September-expiry options rose from 33.8% to 41.1% before pulling back to 38.5%, with some traders rolling call positions to October and December, or using covered call strategies to manage short-term pullback risk.

On the price front, Bitcoin is currently facing a short-term technical resistance zone between $78,214 and $82,139. While the recent rally has pushed the asset into overbought territory, overbought conditions in momentum-driven markets can persist for extended periods, and waiting for a deep pullback carries the risk of missing further upside. As long as Bitcoin holds above $70,973, the broader uptrend is likely to continue. If it subsequently breaks and holds above $82,000, market risk appetite could strengthen further.

Overall, Bitcoin's market structure has shifted from bear market to a new bull cycle, but whether this rally can be sustained still requires further confirmation from trading volume and capital flows. Short-term consolidation near the $78,214–$82,139 resistance zone would not be surprising, while $70,973 remains key support for maintaining a bullish outlook. Heading into September, as institutional funds and asset managers deploy capital at the start of the month, the market could see fresh buying support. Going forward, whether daily trading volume can stay above $100 billion, whether stablecoin market cap can resume expansion, and whether Bitcoin can break above $82,139 will be the key factors determining the next phase of the trend.

Some of the above viewpoints are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Market risk exists, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.