“The first stock of humanoid robots” — how much is Unitree Technology really worth?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On August 10, Unitree Robotics, hailed as "China's first humanoid robot stock," officially opened its subscription channel. On August 11, Unitree Robotics announced the results of its online and offline allotment draws, with an online allotment rate of only 0.01809759%, which is on the lower end among the 93 new stocks listed this year. The allocation ratio for offline investors was 0.03341824%, ranking sixth among the 46 newly listed stocks that had offline subscriptions this year.

For comparison, the new stock with the highest online allotment rate this year was CXMT, the "leading domestic memory chipmaker" which listed in July, with a rate of 0.47141739%. Unitree's online allotment rate is just 3.8% of CXMT's, and its offline allotment rate is 19% of CXMT's.

Such a rare allotment probability has led many to hold high expectations for Unitree Robotics' profit potential after trading begins. Based on an opening market cap of 200 billion yuan, one lot of 500 shares requires an investment of approximately 75,400 yuan, with an estimated paper profit of around 170,000 yuan. If calculated based on the average first-day gain of 466.61% for new stocks on the STAR Market this year, the paper profit for one lot could reach as high as 350,000 yuan.

After listing, can Unitree Robotics' market cap surge from 61 billion to 200 billion yuan? Can Wang Xingxing, the founder of Unitree Robotics, claim the title of "Wealthiest Person on the STAR Market"? What trading opportunities will exist at the open? And how will Unitree Robotics' market performance unfold subsequently? Odaily Planet Daily will explore these questions based on available information.

Allotment Results Announced: Oversubscribed by Over 8,288 Times, Only 19,414 Allotment Numbers

On the evening of August 11, Unitree Robotics released its IPO preliminary offline placement results and online allotment results announcement. Ultimately, there were approximately 19,414 allotment numbers for retail investors, and 313 institutional investors were allocated 22.65 million shares offline.

This online subscription round attracted a total of 9.7846 million retail investor accounts, setting a new record for the STAR Market, surpassing the 9.4288 million accounts that participated in CXMT's offering. The effective subscription volume reached 53.637 billion shares, with an initial effective online subscription multiple as high as 8,288.82 times.

Due to the overwhelming subscription demand, Unitree Robotics activated the claw-back mechanism, transferring 10% of the shares (after deducting the final strategic placement), equivalent to 3.236 million shares, from offline to online allocation to meet the enthusiasm of online retail investors. Consequently, the final allotment rate was raised from the initial 0.012% to approximately 0.018%, yet still hit an all-time low for the STAR Market.

Apart from the online and offline allocations, Unitree Robotics' strategic placement list is also quite impressive.

IPO Strategic Placement List: Includes State-Owned Enterprises, State Capital Funds, Tech Giants, AI Companies, and Multiple Brokerages

In the "strategic placement investors" list deeply connected with Unitree Robotics, notable names include organizations related to the National Social Security Fund, AI company DeepSeek, China National Petroleum Corporation, China Southern Power Grid, subsidiaries of China Telecom, affiliates of Tencent, and CITIC Securities. (Source)

According to Wang Xingxing himself, DeepSeek will provide Unitree Robotics with market-competitive commercial cooperation proposals, including but not limited to technical support in model architecture solutions, intelligent computing cluster construction, and data center operations (if applicable), based on demand and business development. The latter is a large enterprise with strategic cooperation relationships or long-term collaboration visions in operational business, capable of engaging in strategic cooperation with the company, possessing important resources in the same industry or along the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, thereby enhancing the company's market competitiveness. Most other strategic placement investors play similar roles, with CITIC Securities notably participating deeply through "equity investment + IPO follow-on investment," and five other brokerages indirectly investing via LP status. In terms of external support, Unitree Robotics has received endorsement from multiple institutional players, including state-owned enterprises, state capital funds, tech giants, AI companies, and brokerages.

Furthermore, Unitree Robotics employees have also launched two rounds of asset management plans to participate in the strategic placement: The No. 1 asset management plan raised 218.5 million yuan, while the No. 2 plan raised 53 million yuan. Participants in the No. 1 plan include CFO Wang Feng and 160 others, while the No. 2 plan includes Chairman Wang Xingxing and 9 others, with Wang Xingxing subscribing for 15 million yuan. This demonstrates that Unitree employees are betting real money on the company's long-term development.

IPO Data Overview: "Fastest Approval Within the Year," Total Raised 6.1 Billion Yuan, Initial Float Approximately 7.36%

Unitree's issuance price is 150.8 yuan per share, with 40.4464 million shares issued, representing 10% of the total share capital post-issuance, raising approximately 6.099 billion yuan—an oversubscription of 45.15% compared to the planned 4.202 billion yuan. From acceptance of the application on March 20 to approval took just 73 days, and from there to the IPO subscription on August 10 took less than five months—the fastest record within the year.

Regarding lock-up restrictions on offline issued shares, according to Unitree Robotics' announcement data from yesterday, the offline issuance volume after the strategic placement claw-back is 25.886148 million shares, accounting for approximately 80.00% of the issuance volume after deducting the final strategic placement amount. Of this, 90% of the shares have no lock-up period and are tradable immediately upon listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; the remaining 10% have a six-month lock-up period starting from the date of listing.

According to previously compiled data, based on a total share capital of approximately 404 million shares post-issuance, the tradable shares on the first day of listing are approximately 29.77 million shares, accounting for about 7.36% of the total share capital, with over 90% of shares remaining locked up.

Pre-Market Pricing: Unit Price Temporarily at Around $87.8, Market Cap at $35.47 Billion

trade.xyz data shows that pre-IPO perpetual contract prices for Unitree are temporarily around $87.8, and based on a total share capital of 404 million shares, the market cap is tentatively reported at $35.47 billion, equivalent to approximately 239 billion yuan.

Prediction Markets: Probability of Unitree's Closing Market Cap Exceeding 200 Billion Yuan Reported at 75%

Prediction market platforms have also forecast Unitree's closing market cap. Data from predict.fun shows:

• Probability of Unitree's closing market cap exceeding 200 billion yuan: 75%;
• Probability of exceeding 250 billion yuan: 43%;
• Probability of exceeding 300 billion yuan: 18%.

Profit Range Per Lot: From 170,000 to 350,000 Yuan; Wang Xingxing Could Become the "Wealthiest on the STAR Market"

According to estimates, if benchmarked against the average first-day gain of 276.04% for A-share new listings since 2026, the book profit for one lot of Unitree shares could exceed 200,000 yuan. If benchmarked against the average first-day gain of 466.61% for STAR Market new stocks this year, the profit per lot could reach 351,800 yuan.

Should Unitree's market cap surge to 200 billion yuan at the open, the corresponding share price would be approximately 500 yuan, and the value of one 500-share lot would soar to 250,000 yuan, representing a paper profit of approximately 170,000 yuan.

Wang Xingxing, founder of Unitree Robotics, holds approximately 30% of the company directly and indirectly after listing. If Unitree's market cap rises above 200 billion yuan, his shareholding value would reach 60 billion yuan, directly surpassing Chen Weiliang of Moxin (沐曦), and he would become the wealthiest person on China's STAR Market. At present, the prospects look promising.

IPO Fund Allocation Plan: 85% of Funds for R&D, Strengthening the Full Robotics Industrial Chain

Looking at the IPO fundraising directions, 85% of Unitree's raised funds will be directed toward various R&D projects, with four key areas: 2.022 billion yuan for intelligent robot model R&D, 1.110 billion yuan for robot body R&D, 445 million yuan for new intelligent robot product development, and 624 million yuan for intelligent robot manufacturing base construction.

Unitree Robotics projects that its revenue for the first half of 2026 will range between 1.052 billion and 1.128 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 35.62% to 45.41%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 258 million and 306 million yuan, while net profit attributable to the parent company excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 236 million and 283 million yuan. Nevertheless, Unitree's current price-to-earnings ratio (excluding non-recurring items) of 219 times still invites controversy, and there is significant divergence in market valuations of the company.

Market Cap Debate: 100 Billion, 200 Billion, or Over 400 Billion?

At present, expectations for Unitree's market cap vary widely among institutions and individual investors.

Looking at revenue data over the past three years, from 2023 to 2025, Unitree's revenue climbed from 159 million yuan to 1.699 billion yuan, representing a compound annual growth rate of 226.78%. Net profit excluding non-recurring items turned from a loss of 18.0191 million yuan to a profit of 591 million yuan. Gross margin on core business rose from 44.22% to 60.13%, with the humanoid robot gross margin reaching 63.18%. In 2025, operating cash flow was 670 million yuan, and cash on hand was 1.419 billion yuan, with virtually no interest-bearing debt. Although in Q1 2026, the company's revenue was 423 million yuan, with year-over-year growth slowing from 332.64% in 2025 to 68.49%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items dropping to 40.2536 million yuan—a 52.55% decline year-over-year—Wang Xingxing attributes this to "a significantly larger revenue base, gradually cooling industry enthusiasm, and increasingly fierce market competition." Heavy marketing expenses during the Spring Festival also played a part.

Market Cap Expectation Range: From 109 Billion to Over 400 Billion Yuan

CCB International, citing Unitree's scarcity as the "first humanoid robot stock," its global number-one market share, and high performance growth expectations, has given a market cap forecast of 109 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price-to-sales ratio of 32 times for 2026. Some market institutions, based on long-term industry potential, have offered optimistic expectations of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan.

CITIC has projected that Unitree could grow to a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 20 times over 6 to 12 months. For Unitree to meet this condition, revenue would need to grow to 11.5 billion yuan, roughly a sevenfold increase from the 1.7 billion yuan revenue base of 2025.

"White-haired stock god" Serenity stated in a post that Unitree's IPO saw over 8,000 times oversubscription from retail investors, reflecting the "extremely strong" market demand for pure-play humanoid robot companies. He believes that Unitree's pre-IPO perpetual contract market valuation already signals high expectations. If the market cap exceeds $30 billion after listing, it could further draw attention to leading U.S. humanoid robot companies in the next one to two weeks.

Yu Wenchao, an early investor in Unitree and partner at Dunhong Capital, offered the most aggressive forecast: "A market cap exceeding 200 billion yuan after listing is very reasonable, and I think it could even surpass 400 billion yuan in the short term. Compared to valuations of similar overseas companies, this isn't exaggerated."

In response to a question raised during the IPO roadshow about whether the stock might "break its issue price," Wang Xingxing replied: "Please pay attention to the stock price trend after the company's listing." His words conveyed confidence, with an air of "wait and see."

Wang Xingxing Responds: Global Number One in Humanoid Robot Shipments, "Brain" Shortcomings Addressed

Addressing the controversy raised during the roadshow about the "219 times P/E ratio excluding non-recurring items, far exceeding the industry average of 38.56 times," Wang Xingxing stated that based on 2025 net profit excluding non-recurring items, the issue price (150.5 yuan) corresponds to a P/E ratio of 92.92 times. He added that the embodied intelligence industry in which the company operates has vast market space, and the pricing is consistent with the company's operating conditions and industry development.

In 2025, Unitree shipped over 5,500 humanoid robots (excluding wheeled dual-arm robots), and Wang Xing