Kalshi Founder Interview: Don't Blindly Seek Startup Advice, and I'm Not Particularly Good at Management

Original author: Jordyn Holman, The New York Times

Original translation: Luffy, Foresight News

Kalshi is much smaller than many people imagine. Most of the company's 200 employees work in an open-plan office in Manhattan's Meatpacking District, and they don't even occupy a full office floor.

But now, Kalshi and a host of prediction market platforms like Polymarket are seemingly everywhere.

They are major sponsors of sporting events, and media outlets frequently cite their data in coverage of politics and financial markets. Users can bet on the probability of various events on these sites: the final score of a football game, the outcome of a new drug clinical trial, or what topics President Trump will mention in a speech.

Kalshi was founded in 2018 and officially opened to the public in 2021. Its founders are two recent MIT graduates: CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara. In May of this year, the company completed a new funding round at a valuation of $22 billion. Mansour grew up in Lebanon, and Lopes Lara is from Brazil. According to Forbes, both are just 30 years old and have already become billionaires.

In the U.S., prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and can operate nationwide once approved. Gambling companies, by contrast, must obtain licenses state by state, resulting in different regulatory frameworks. A New York Times investigation found that the CFTC's recent staff reductions and loosened enforcement have objectively helped fuel the growth of the prediction market industry.

The rapid industry expansion has attracted a wave of investors and new entrants, including some with ties to the Trump family: Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and also serves as a paid adviser to Kalshi. Mark Zuckerberg of Meta has also expressed interest in entering the prediction market space.

Some lawmakers and regulators believe prediction markets are just gambling in disguise. The industry also faces insider trading risks: in recent months, a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro placed bets on Polymarket related to the event, and a White House teleprompter operator bet on the content of Trump's speeches on Kalshi.

New York Attorney General Letitia James recently sued Kalshi, accusing it of operating illegally and circumventing state gambling regulations. Kalshi dismissed the lawsuit as a "political stunt" and argued that states have no authority to force the company to shut down. More than a dozen states have introduced legislation targeting prediction markets this year.

In its latest funding disclosure, Kalshi said its annualized trading volume had surged to $178 billion. In Mansour's view, markets that allow people to put money behind their predictions hold significant value, helping to "calibrate" (a word he frequently uses) a world that is "overloaded with information but starved of truth."

The following is the interview, edited for length and clarity.

Tarek Mansour

Q: You've said one of Kalshi's visions is the "financialization of everything," which many people see as dystopian. Why do you think it's a good thing?

I think people have taken that phrase out of context. The beauty of prediction markets is that they turn subjective, emotional, partisan arguments into a mathematical, objective system with clear and transparent incentive structures. If you do your research, analyze rationally, and strive to find the truth, you're likely to profit. If your views are biased, out of touch with reality, and extreme, you're likely to lose money.

There's a unique sense of order in these markets: you can clearly see the motivations behind others' opinions. People participate in the game because they're essentially chasing the truth, seeking to earn returns.

Q: Right now, a large number of users are trading on sports. What's the breakdown between sports and other categories in your event contracts?

It's true that people love trading on sports. Our users generally enjoy math, economics, and trading, and they love thinking about probabilities and the variables that move events. Sports are an excellent training ground for probabilistic thinking.

Q: What are the specific numbers?

Last year, sports-related trading accounted for about 95% of volume. Now it's closer to two-thirds. There are massive numbers of sports events every week, but political events don't come up continuously. Sports trading brings sufficient liquidity to other categories like crypto, politics, and macroeconomics, driving much faster growth in those segments.

Q: How is the political category doing right now?

Major political events can see market sizes of $50 million to $100 million. As more participants join, the accuracy of market pricing improves significantly, and expectations align more closely with reality.

Q: Back to "financialization of everything" — what's next for Kalshi?

Everything in moderation. Kalshi supports sensible regulation. We've always pursued a compliant path. In our early days, we spent years planning our listed categories and securing a federal license, and the process was extremely difficult. We were only 22 at the time, and we spent the first four years of our careers working with lawyers to help build the regulatory framework for the industry.

Q: Are you satisfied with the current regulatory environment? Are there holes in the regulatory system?

As long as there is innovation and new things emerging, there will be regulatory gaps in any era. If regulation were perfect, nothing new would ever be created in this country.

Q: I'd like to ask about the reported tension between you and Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan. Let's talk about the real situation.

People love to see rivals at odds. But this isn't really direct competition. The competitors I truly care about are different: Robinhood, the CME, Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, the major banks, and Zuckerberg, who's eyeing the prediction market space. The chance to compete with these players is what excites me.

Our differences with Polymarket are fundamentally philosophical.

Q: Specifically, what are those differences?

The core divide is over the path forward: choosing compliant operations versus unregulated, wild growth. I don't think Polymarket has built a proper risk-control foundation for its market. In the long run, that's not good for them, or for the industry as a whole.

Q: How do you convince the outside world that the regulatory rules Kalshi has helped establish truly serve users' interests?

The industry's continued growth is itself a proof of trust — users are willing to entrust us with their money. If people felt harmed and lost trust in the platform, they would naturally stop using it and warn others around them.

Q: Is trading volume highly concentrated among a small number of traders?

I don't have the exact percentage, but volume distribution is indeed uneven. Some users trade sporadically each month, some treat trading as a hobby or side hustle, and there are also full-time participants — the superforecasters. Superforecasters sift through vast amounts of information. This group likely makes up less than 2% of users but accounts for 70% to 80% of trading volume.

Our most accurate inflation forecaster is just an ordinary person from Kansas; the top ten political forecasters come from all walks of life, with no Wall Street elite backgrounds — many are blue-collar workers. That's quite interesting.

Q: What measures does Kalshi take to prevent insider trading?

First, all users must complete identity verification, so the platform knows traders' real identities and can quickly trace any abnormal trading. Second, we've built systems comparable to the NYSE that automatically flag suspicious trading patterns. Third, we enforce full transparency — all trading data is publicly available.

This has both pros and cons. The downside is that everyone can see the trading records, so any anomaly immediately invites questions about insider trading. But the upside is precisely that: abnormal behavior is monitored by everyone. If someone tries to trade on inside information, they're effectively doing it in plain sight.

Insider trading is subtle. In a sense, insider information can make market prices more efficient. But we firmly prohibit it because it undermines fairness and ultimately drives away ordinary traders.

Some economists have argued that insider trading improves prediction accuracy and would actually make people trust market outcomes more. But fairness is the bottom line we prioritize.

Q: The company is scaling fast. How do you balance external affairs while staying focused on building the company?

Luana and I work at a very high intensity, often putting in weekend hours — there's always time to be found. Once operations stabilize, many things can be systematized into standardized processes and delegated to the team. She handles internal operations, and I focus on external matters. This model works well.

Kalshi employs a highly flat structure to drive efficient execution. There are very few management layers, and we prevent managers from taking credit for frontline work. The people doing the work are the team leads, which creates urgency and intrinsic motivation.

Q: Where does your management style come from?

Lebanese people generally have tremendous adaptability, given the uncertainty of the environment there. That upbringing taught me that the world is inherently full of variables.

Right now, AI changes almost every two weeks — the environment shifts constantly. Organizational structures must adapt to that pace. That's why we deliberately avoid rigid hierarchies. Whether facing major challenges or new opportunities, teams can flexibly reorganize and collaborate.

Q: Staying on the topic of your upbringing — what's the most important advice your parents gave you?

My mother always told me: always give 120% and strive for perfection. The difference in results often comes down to that final 20% of effort.

Lightning Round

Q: Which trade on Kalshi has caught your attention recently?

A: Contracts related to computing power prices.

Q: What's your favorite question to ask job candidates?

A: How do you view Elon Musk?

Q: What's your most contrarian opinion?

A: I believe the success of any great company doesn't fundamentally hinge on its executives.

Q: Do you consider yourself a manager?

A: No, I'm not very good at managing people.

Q: What's the most recent question you asked an AI?

A: I asked ChatGPT about the probability of Democrats winning the 2028 midterm elections. AI can now pull in Kalshi's data to make projections.

Q: What's the worst advice young founders hear most often today?

A: Many people tell founders to go around collecting advice from everyone. But there's no universal formula for entrepreneurship. People over-rely on others' opinions; meanwhile, many people love dispensing advice to feel a sense of superiority, yet most of it is worthless.

Q: So what advice would you give young founders?

A: Don't take my words as gospel. Within controllable limits, experiment boldly and take risks as much as possible.

Q: Best advice about meetings?

A: If you can avoid having a meeting, don't have one.