MSX US Stock Daily Observation: Apple FY 2026 Q3 Earnings: iPhone, Mac, and Services Hit Record Highs, but Supply Chain Concerns Weigh on Next-Quarter Guidance, Sending Shares Lower
- Key Takeaways: Apple's fiscal 2024 Q3 earnings showed core business revenue, EPS, and iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all exceeded expectations and set June-quarter records, but the next-quarter revenue guidance fell short of market consensus, primarily due to significantly intensifying supply chain constraints from advanced-node chips and memory costs, triggering a sharp post-earnings selloff.
- Key Metrics:
- Revenue of $109.417 billion beat expectations of $108.853 billion; EPS of $2.02 beat the $1.89 consensus, with iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all reaching June-quarter highs.
- Gross margin of 50.1% included a roughly 2-percentage-point one-time benefit from tariff rebates; excluding that, gross margin of approximately 48.1% still slightly beat the 48.7% consensus. However, Services revenue of $30.739 billion and iPad revenue of $6.191 billion both missed expectations.
- Next-quarter guidance calls for revenue growth of 9%-11%, below the consensus estimate of approximately 12%; management warned that supply chain constraints (advanced-node chips, memory costs) will "significantly intensify" for iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
- This quarter marked Tim Cook's final earnings call before stepping down as CEO; the market's key focus is whether supply tightness will weigh on Q4 peak-season shipments.
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Today's Observation
Apple's quarterly revenue, EPS, iPhone, and Mac revenue all beat expectations across the board, with iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all hitting record highs for the June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3). Revenue came in at $109.417 billion, beating expectations of $108.853 billion; EPS of $2.02 exceeded the expected $1.89; Mac revenue of $10.352 billion significantly surpassed the expected $8.619 billion. The gross margin of 50.1% includes roughly 2 percentage points of one-time tariff refund benefits; excluding that, it stands at approximately 48.1%, still slightly above the expected ~47.9%. Services revenue ($30.739 billion) and iPad revenue ($6.191 billion) missed expectations, marking the only two weak spots. However, next quarter's guidance was soft: management warned that supply chain constraints (advanced process chips, memory costs) would "significantly intensify" for iPhone, iPad, and Mac, with total revenue growth guidance of 9%-11%, below the consensus estimate of ~12%, causing the stock to slump after the earnings release. This also marks Cook's final earnings call before stepping down as CEO.
Data in a Minute
Revenue $109.417B, beating expectations of $108.853B
EPS $2.02, beating expectations of $1.89
iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue all hit June quarter record highs
Gross margin 50.1% (including ~2 percentage points of tariff refund benefit); ~48.1% ex that, still beating expectations of ~47.9%
Services revenue $30.739B, missing expectations of $31.359B; iPad revenue $6.191B, missing expectations of $6.890B
Mac revenue $10.352B, significantly beating expectations of $8.619B
Next quarter guidance: revenue growth of 9%-11% (below the ~12% consensus); gross margin guidance of 47%-48%
MSX View
This earnings report carries significant weight both on the surface and beneath it: iPhone, Mac, and Services all hit June quarter records, showing solid momentum in core businesses. The 50.1% gross margin looks impressive at first glance, but breaking it down, roughly 2 percentage points come from a one-time tariff refund benefit; excluding that, it's 48.1%—still above expectations, but not as dramatic as the headline number suggests. What's really dampening sentiment is next quarter's guidance. Management directly flagged that supply chain constraints from advanced process chips and memory costs will "significantly intensify," with the 9%-11% revenue growth guidance clearly missing the market's prior expectation of ~12%. This is the core reason why the stock fell sharply despite the "record" earnings. Looking ahead, whether supply tightness is a "sweet burden" of overly strong demand or will truly weigh on peak-season shipments in Q4 is the key signal worth tracking next.
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Risk Disclosure: Macroeconomic and US stock market conditions are highly volatile. This content is for academic and research observation purposes only by the MSX Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.
