I have established a Bitcoin buying system: $64,000, the lower the score, the more I buy

Original Author: Jake Pahor

Original Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Introduction: Australian trader Jake Pahor reveals his actual portfolio: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This is not a matter of faith; it's the choice of an ordinary person with a full-time job and family responsibilities after suffering heavy losses in the last cycle. Complex strategies require time, and Bitcoin has outperformed almost all the altcoins he held last cycle. He uses the CSH scoring system for dynamic dollar-cost averaging—buying more when the score is lower, with exit strategies also pre-defined in the plan. The value of this system isn't for you to copy directly, but to help you see clearly: the only thing that can withstand market sentiment at 11 PM is the rules you wrote down during calmer times.

Every SMSF (Self-Managed Super Fund) consultation ends the same way.

We finish the paperwork. Trust deeds, bank accounts, custody, audit records. All the things that keep people out of trouble. Then there's a pause, and I know exactly what's coming next.

"So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What should I even buy?"

I can't answer that. Not because I don't want to. I simply can't. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years ahead, or 68 with only three years left. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown, or panic at a 10% drop. No one can answer that question for someone else, and anyone who claims to have the answer is just guessing.

But hundreds of people have asked me this question now, and it's the reason Tom and I created CSH. So this week, I'm giving the only honest answer there is: exactly what I do with my own money, and the system that drives it. Not for you to copy. It's so you can see what a system looks like, and then build your own.

Everything below runs on the free version of the app.

CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (Stable, +0.7 this week). In the bottom 22% of all readings since 2011, has remained in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days.

Key Metrics:

BTC: $64,492 / A$91,717 (7-day: roughly flat)

BTC Dominance: 59.2%

ETH/BTC: 0.029

TOTAL3/BTC (Altcoins priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — Previous cycle bottoms found support near 0.25

Fear & Greed Index: 26 - Fear

Total Market Cap: $2.27 Trillion

Review: Last time I said three things needed to happen before this bear market ends. None have happened. One week later, it's still zero for three. The only notable change: BTC has crawled back above the 200-week moving average (~$63,300). A necessary condition, but far from sufficient.

Jake's Take: Two weeks of sideways consolidation between roughly $62,000 and $66,000, with the score stuck in the 20s. Boring price action, noisy macro. My plan hasn't changed this week. That's the point of having a plan.

Image: CSH Risk Score Dashboard, Score 25.6/100, Early Cycle, has remained in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub

How I Invest My Own Money

No title this week. The question above is more important than any news cycle, so here's my answer, three rules.

Rule One: Benchmark Against Two Standards. I track my portfolio in both USD and Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your altcoin doubles, but Bitcoin triples, you've actually lost money. You just didn't notice because you're only looking at the dollar figure. For fifteen years, BTC has remained the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I hold something else, it's because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?

Rule Two: Core First, Know Your Limits. Right now, I'm 100% in Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. This isn't permanent, it's just aligned with my life. I have a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I'm building CSH in my spare time. Altcoin rotation is a full-time job for people with the time to dedicate to it. I know because I tried it last cycle. I held a pile of altcoins with no plan and got crushed, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed almost everything I held. The lesson isn't that altcoins are bad. It's that my portfolio must fit my actual life. Start with BTC as the core. Only add complexity when you have the time and skill to manage it.

Rule Three: Let the System Buy. My money runs a dynamic DCA plan driven by the CSH score. It buys according to the plan, but only when the score is in my target range of 10 to 30. Position sizes are dynamic: the lower the score, the more I buy. Moderate position building at a score of 30. A significantly larger position at a score of 15. Every decision was made months ago, in a calm state. The market can't renegotiate with me at 11 PM.

The same mechanism works in reverse. My plan dynamically sells above the exit zone. Last cycle, writing down exit rules was the difference between realizing cycle gains and riding the rollercoaster back down. Bitcoin's entire history follows a rhythm close to four years. I'm not going to fight it on feelings.

Where am I this week? Score at 25.6, regular DCA running within the range, waiting for a sub-20 score that hasn't materialized yet for larger positions. Intentionally did nothing new for two weeks. Inaction is also a position, and this is mine right now.

Jake's Workbench

Big update this week: Complete overhaul of My Plan feature. Email alerts are live. You can set a portfolio target and watch it fill up. Order history in just two clicks, and the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the live score. It's becoming the screen I check, instead of the price.

Here's my own plan, straight from the app screenshot:

Image: The author's DCA plan, bought 0.2279 BTC since late June, average price A$87,755, target 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub

Since late June, three orders recorded, buying 0.2279 BTC towards a 2 BTC target, with an average buy price of A$87,755. A quick note to avoid confusion: this plan only tracks the portion I've bought since it launched a few weeks ago. It's a slice of my holdings, not the whole. But this is the system described above, running in public, with the record starting to accumulate here.

Workbench next steps: CSV upload and exchange sync to make order logging simpler.

The altcoin season discussion is back. My feeds are full of rotation calls. The indicators I watch say it's not time yet: altcoin market cap priced in BTC is at 0.37, and in each cycle, the bottom has been tested near 0.25 before altcoins started to run. Dominance is still rising, ETH/BTC is still flat. So: if someone pitches you an altcoin rotation this week, ask them what benchmark they're using.

Image: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC chart, altcoin market cap priced in BTC at 0.37, previous cycle bottoms tested near 0.25. Source: Trading View

The Fed meets Wednesday (US time). Probability of holding rates is ~85%, but whispers of a hike are getting louder. So: unless your plan depends on next month's interest rate, this is noise. My plan doesn't depend on it.

Visa launches a stablecoin platform, letting banks issue their own stablecoins without building infrastructure from scratch. So: this is what bear markets are for. When no one is watching price action, infrastructure gets built.

Morgan Stanley enables spot BTC, ETH, and SOL trading for E*TRADE clients. So: millions of regular brokerage accounts are now one click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won't come from Crypto Twitter. They'll come from the screens they already use.

What to Watch Next Week

FOMC Decision, Thursday 4 AM (AEDT). Holding rates is mostly priced in, so the reaction will depend on the wording. Expect two-way volatility. Volatility is not a signal.

200-Week Moving Average, ~$63,300. BTC is almost exactly on this line. The weekly close above or below this line is what the whole market is watching.

Below 20. Zero days below 20 this cycle. This is the trigger I'm waiting for for my larger buy positions. If it happens, you'll hear it here first.

One question spawned an entire company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer was never a date or a coin. It's a system that fits your life, matches your nerves, and is written down before the market gets noisy.

Mine is above. If you want to build your own, the score and plan builder are free.

I'm curious: reply directly with a number, the percentage of Bitcoin in your portfolio right now. I'll share the stats next week.