Bitcoin Buying System: $64,000 – The Lower the Score, The More I Buy

Original author: Jake Pahor

Original translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

TL;DR: Australian trader Jake Pahor reveals his real portfolio: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This isn't about faith; it's the choice of an ordinary person with a full-time job and a family to care for, after getting crushed in the last market cycle. Complex strategies demand time costs, and Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every altcoin he held in the previous cycle. He uses the CSH scoring system for dynamic DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): the lower the score, the more he buys, with exit rules also hardcoded into the plan. The value of this system isn't for anyone to copy outright, but to show you clearly: the only thing that can withstand market emotions at 11 PM is the rules you wrote down on a calm day.

Every SMSF (Self-Managed Super Fund) consultation ends the same way.

We finish the paperwork. Trust deed, bank account, custody, audit records. All the things that keep you out of trouble. Then there's a pause, and I know exactly what's coming next.

"So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What should I even buy?"

I can't answer that. Not because I don't want to. Because I can't. The person asking could be 42 with twenty years of runway left, or 68 with only three. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown, or panic at a 10% drop. No one can answer that question for someone else, and anyone who gives an answer is just guessing.

But now that hundreds of people have asked me this question, it's also why Tom and I created CSH. So this week, I'm giving the only honest answer: what I'm actually doing with my own money, and the system that drives it. This isn't for you to copy. It's for you to see what a system looks like, so you can build your own.

Everything below runs on the free version of the app.

CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.6/100 – Early Cycle (Stable, +0.7 this week). In the bottom 22% of all readings since 2011. Has been stuck in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days.

Key Metrics:

BTC: $64,492 / $91,717 AUD (7D: roughly flat)

BTC Dominance: 59.2%

ETH/BTC: 0.029

TOTAL3/BTC (Altcoins priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 – previous cycle bottoms bottomed out around 0.25

Fear & Greed Index: 26 - Fear

Total Market Cap: $2.27 Trillion

Review: Last time I said three things must happen before this bear market ends. None of them have happened. One week on, it's still zero for three. The only notable change: BTC has crawled back above the 200-week moving average (~$63,300). A necessary condition, but nowhere near sufficient.

Jake's Take: Two weeks of sideways chop roughly between $62,000 and $66,000, with the score stuck in the 20s the whole time. The charts are boring, the macro is noisy. My plan hasn't changed this week. That is the plan.

Figure: CSH Risk Score Dashboard, score 25.6/100, Early Cycle phase, stuck in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub

How I Invest My Own Money

No headline this week. The question above matters more than any news cycle, so here is my answer, three rules.

Rule One: Benchmark Against Two Standards. I track my portfolio in two dimensions: US Dollars and Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your altcoin doubles, but Bitcoin triples, you are actually losing money. You just don't notice because you're only looking at the dollar figure. Fifteen years on, BTC is still the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I hold something else, it's because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?

Rule Two: Core First, Know Your Limits. Right now I am 100% in Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. This isn't forever, just what fits my life. I have a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I'm building CSH in my spare time. Altcoin rotation is a job for people with time. I know because I tried it last cycle, holding a bunch of altcoins without a plan, and got crushed, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed almost everything I held. The lesson isn't that altcoins are bad. It's that my portfolio must fit my actual life. Start with BTC as the core. Only add complexity when you have the time and skill to manage it.

Rule Three: Let the System Buy. My money runs dynamic DCA via the CSH score. It buys on a schedule, but only when the score is in my 10 to 30 range. Position size is dynamic: the lower the score, the more I buy. At a score of 30, I accumulate moderately. At a score of 15, the position size is multiples of that. Every decision was made months ago, when calm. The market can't renegotiate with me at 11 PM.

The same mechanism works in reverse. My plan sells dynamically above the exit zone. Last cycle, writing down exit rules was the difference between locking in cycle gains and riding the roller coaster round trip. Bitcoin has followed a remarkably consistent roughly four-year rhythm throughout its life. I'm not going to try and fight that on gut feeling.

Where am I this week? Score at 25.6, regular buys are running within the range, larger positions still waiting for a sub-20 that hasn't appeared yet. Intentionally made zero new moves for two weeks. Inaction is also a position, and this is mine right now.

Jake's Workbench

Big update this week: My Plan feature is fully redesigned. Email alerts are live. You can set a portfolio target and watch it fill up. Order logging takes two clicks, and the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the live score. It's becoming a screen I check, instead of price.

Here's my own plan, directly screenshotted from the app:

Figure: The author's own DCA plan, accumulated 0.2279 BTC since late June at an average price of $87,755 AUD, targeting 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub

Since the end of June, three orders have been logged, buying 0.2279 BTC towards the 2 BTC target, with an average buy price of $87,755 AUD. A quick note in case anyone misreads this screen: this plan only tracks the buys I've made since it launched a few weeks ago. This is a slice of my holdings, not the whole thing. But it is the system described in the section above, running in the open, with the record starting to build from here.

Workbench Next Steps: CSV upload and exchange sync to make order logging easier.

The talk of altseason is back. My feed is full of rotation calls. The indicators I watch say not yet: Altcoin market cap priced in BTC is at 0.37, and in every previous cycle it bottoms out near 0.25 before altcoins start to run. Dominance is still rising, ETH/BTC is still flat. So: if someone pitches you an altcoin rotation this week, ask them what benchmark they are using.

Figure: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC chart, altcoin market cap priced in BTC is 0.37, previous cycle bottoms bottomed out near 0.25. Source: Trading View

The Fed meets on Wednesday (US time). The probability of holding rates steady is ~85%, but whispers about rate hikes are getting louder. So: unless your plan depends on next month's interest rate, this is noise. My plan does not depend on it.

Visa launched a stablecoin platform, allowing banks to issue their own stablecoins without needing to build the infrastructure from scratch. So: this is what bear markets are for. When no one is watching the charts, infrastructure is being built.

Morgan Stanley opened spot trading for BTC, ETH, and SOL for E*TRADE clients. So: millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now one click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won't come from Crypto Twitter. They'll come from the screens they already use.

What to Watch Next Week

FOMC Decision, 4 AM Thursday (AEDT). Holding rates is largely priced in, so the reaction will depend on the rhetoric. Expect two-way volatility. Volatility is not a signal.

200-Week Moving Average, ~$63,300. BTC is sitting almost exactly on this line. The weekly close above or below this line is what the whole market is watching.

Sub-20 Score. Zero days below 20 this cycle so far. This is the trigger I'm waiting for for my larger buys. If it appears, you'll hear about it here first.

One question spawned an entire company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer was never a date or a coin. It's a system that fits your life, matches your nerves, and gets written down before the market gets noisy.

Mine is above. If you want to build yours, the score and plan builder are free.

I'm curious: just reply with a number, the percentage of Bitcoin in your portfolio right now. I'll share the stats next week.