Former NYSE Market Maker: BTC Bottom Requires These 7 Signals, Not Just One Price

Collated & Compiled by: TechFlow

Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker, now full-time crypto trader and founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave

Host: Alessandro, Crypto Banter's "Risk Takers" program

Podcast Source: Crypto Banter

Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Air Date: July 19, 2026

Disclosure: Krown has publicly stated he bought spot BTC in the low $60,000s, while also running a paid trading course and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This episode is purely technical analysis and does not promote any specific project tokens.

Key Takeaways

Eric Krown, a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience, started learning equity options at the Pacific Exchange as a teenager and later worked as an MMAT at NYSE Arca. He transitioned to full-time crypto trading several years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" show, a monthly series that has been tracking a core question in real-time: Where exactly is Bitcoin's macro bottom?

The biggest information increment in this episode is that Krown has pieced together all the converging monthly signals into a complete checklist. The 55 EMA reclaim level at $63,735, the Stochastic Oscillator crossover trigger at $64,371, the bi-weekly MACD histogram's 168-day cycle pointing to early August, and the LTI tool's strong buy signal in January, after which the price has already retraced 22.64% (highly consistent with the 20-22% in previous cycles). He clearly states that if BTC closes the monthly candle above $63,735, he is 85% confident that a macro bottom is forming. On the other hand, the Fear & Greed Index has stayed below 20 for two to three consecutive months, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, yet the price has already staged a major reversal. This divergence has historically appeared at every macro low.

Key Quote Highlights

On the "Wait for 50k" Psychological Trap

"Everyone is calling for 40k to 50k, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has already retested the flash crash low from August 2024, which was $49,270. The number you want, adjusted for inflation, has already been handed to you."

On the Monthly 55 EMA

"After BTC broke below the 55 EMA in 2022, it took about half a year to reclaim it. Once reclaimed, the bull market officially began. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before reclaiming it. Now, all it needs is a July close above $63,735, and this level is reclaimed."

On the 168-Day Cycle

"In 2018, from the MACD histogram low to the actual price low, it was 168 days. In 2022, also 168 days. This cycle, the trendline has already triggered. Pushing forward 168 days lands exactly in early August, perfectly coinciding with the monthly close and Stochastic crossover time window."

On Market Sentiment

"The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, after being below 20 for two to three months. The price has reversed from its lows, but sentiment is still in the basement. Look back at 2015, 2019, 2022 – every macro low had this exact recipe."

On Traditional Market Rotation

"The semiconductor index has rallied 300% from April 2025. I called the top in early July. Profits are rotating into biotech (IBB) and industrial sectors. However, the SPY chart is not bearish. I don't see any signs of a macro top, at least not before Q4."

On Gold and Copper

"Gold topped right on its 10-year cycle in January, and it will likely be range-bound or lower for the next few years. Copper is different. It just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range, with a price target around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

Chapter 1: "Debasing" BTC with M2 Money Supply

Alessandro: Last month you said BTC would start looking good hanging around 60k until summer. Do you still feel that way?

Krown: Yes, and I'm now about 85% confident that a macro low is being confirmed at this month's close. First, let me mention a perspective I think is severely overlooked. A lot of people are waiting for 40k to 50k BTC; various influencers and retail traders are calling for that range. But if you look at BTC divided by the M2 money supply, the picture is completely different. This chart uses the money supply as a denominator to normalize for inflation.

It was the same thing in 2022. Everyone was calling for 10k, 8k, but if you normalize with M2, BTC had effectively already fallen to the equivalent of $10,000 in November of that year. I said on my channel at the time, if you're waiting for 10k to 11k, adjusted for money supply, it's already there.

The situation is identical now. The sub-$50,000 you want, adjusted for M2, has already been given. BTC retested the August 2024 flash crash low of $49,270. The number you wanted was already handed to you; you just weren't using the right ruler. The money supply has increased by 40% to 50% since 2020, but we're measuring asset prices against the dollar as if it were a constant. That itself is a cognitive bias.

Alessandro: I've used the BTC/M2 chart before to show that BTC is the only asset making consistently higher highs and higher lows against the money supply. S&P and Gold are actually making lower lows against M2.

Krown: Exactly. The S&P only recently broke its 1999 high, which was also a break against M2. Everything is related to the money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Chapter 2: Monthly 55 EMA – $63,735 is the First Confirmation Signal

Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What's the status of the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned before?

Krown: Let's start with the simplest one. On the monthly chart, the 55 EMA has historically been a key moving average for confirming BTC's macro lows. In 2022, after BTC broke below it, it spent about half a year underneath. Once reclaimed, it was a major signal, and the bull market started from there. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before reclaiming, followed by a massive rally. Going further back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA also acted as a base for the bottom.

Current situation: If BTC closes this month above $63,735, it will have completed the reclaim of the 55 EMA. We are right around this level now. There are about 11 to 12 trading days left, and so far, so good. This signal is very specific and very easy to track. Even if you are the staunchest bear, you must admit this is at least a major low, and BTC will likely bounce back above $70,000.

For short-term confirmation, I still need to see BTC close above the $65,500 high. But on the monthly timeframe, $63,735 is the first hard metric.

Chapter 3: Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is showing a momentum weakening signal. July is the first "awesome momentum signal"; the last one appeared in April. Historically, every time the monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, the low has either already occurred or is so close you might as well enter. In 2015, the low was already in. In 2019, the reversal happened almost on that bar. In 2022, despite the FTX crash extreme event later, if you bought when the MACD signal appeared, you were only one month early from the final low, and you would be very satisfied long-term.

On the RSI front, the monthly RSI is now roughly at the same level as the 2022 low, maybe a touch lower, and it is lower than all previous macro lows in BTC's history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.

Third, look at the monthly Stochastic Oscillator. It has already touched the oversold area below 20, which is a low signal. The next confirmation is waiting for it to cross upwards. Every time this crossover happens, the low is already in. I've tracked this back to 2012 data, and there hasn't been a single exception.

Here's a key number: I back-calculated this. If BTC closes the month at $64,371 or above, it will force the Stochastic to make an upward crossover. So you have two trigger levels in a very narrow range: $63,735 to reclaim the 55 EMA, and $64,371 to trigger the Stochastic crossover. If both hit, combined with the MACD momentum signal and low RSI, even the biggest bear would have to start considering if this is the macro bottom.

Chapter 4: The 168-Day Cycle Points to Early August

Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trendline you mentioned before?

Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in advance in 2022. Looking at the bi-weekly timeframe MACD histogram, you can draw a downward trendline since 2018. Every time the histogram touches this line, it forms a low. Note that the low of the MACD histogram is not the same as the price low; there is a time lag between the two.

But this time lag is incredibly consistent. In 2018: from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low, 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. Exact to the day.

This cycle, the trendline has already been triggered. Count forward 168 days, and you land in early August. This perfectly coincides with the time window for the monthly 55 EMA reclaim and the Stochastic crossover. Everything is converging at the same point in time.

Alessandro: So the signals you see aren't isolated; they're all pointing to the same conclusion simultaneously?

Krown: Yes, that's why I say 85% confidence. Any single indicator can be wrong. But when five or six independent signals all trigger within the same week, the probabilities are overwhelmingly in your favor. It's the same logic as World Cup odds. France is the biggest favorite, their probability might rise from 15% to 40%, but the combined probability of all other teams is always higher. You can have a strong reason to bet on France, but you're probably wrong.

Alessandro: Same with trading, you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: Never. But when you have a probabilistic edge, you just bet on the high-probability side. You don't need to be right every time. In a market like BTC, you just need to be right on one big move.

Chapter 5: The LTI Tool and the 22% Rule

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it gave a buy signal.

Krown: The LTI is a long-term tool that incorporates volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it issues a strong buy signal, the price typically has about a 20% downside remaining to the final low. Let me quickly run through history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared. The drop from signal to the next closing low was 22.90%. In 2018, signal to low was 20.61%. In June 2022, the signal appeared, and the drop to the macro closing low was 20.65%. This cycle, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026. The drop from the signal to the current closing low is 22.64%. Four signals, drops all between 20-23%. Remarkably consistent.

My judgment on the macro low has a prerequisite: the weekly trend must formally reverse. Right now, all higher timeframes are still in a downtrend, that's a fact. But if the monthly close is above the numbers I mentioned, I'll move from 80% to 85% confidence. This doesn't mean BTC won't rally to $75,000 and then drop back to $65,000, but the bottoming structure is forming.

Chapter 6: Fear & Greed Index at 28, Classic Divergence of Sentiment and Price

Alessandro: How do you view market sentiment?

Krown: The Fear & Greed Index is now at 28, after being below 20 for two to three consecutive months. Judging from my YouTube analytics data, viewership has also declined. But those who remain are extremely pessimistic.

There is a classic divergence here: market sentiment is in the basement, but the price has already completed a major reversal from its lows. This configuration appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd, but they *are* the crowd. The crowd is bearish, and very convinced.

Even if the macro low isn't in yet, I don't think there's much downside left. The worst case is a multi-month relief rally. $60,000 is my key level – a confluence of a psychological level and a technical level. As long as BTC stays above it, I treat this as a major low, possibly a macro low. A weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 would break a lot of structures.

Alessandro: So your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Yes. Technically, you need to see a bi-weekly, or at least a 10-day, close below $60,000 to start breaking these signals. Below that, a lot of things fall apart. But I don't see that sign yet.

Chapter 7: Four-Year Cycle? Don't Care. August is Just Close to October

Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will come earlier than October?

Krown: Honestly, I don't care about the four-year cycle narrative anymore. Everyone reads on YouTube that "BTC bottoms one year after it peaks, so the low must be in October." But how do you define the peak? If you use the BTC/M2 chart, the high occurs at a different time. I just follow the low signals; I don't care what the history textbook says the date is.

Alessandro: But it's only July. If the bottom is now or in a month or two, you have to admit the four-year cycle is right again.

Krown: Absolutely. July is only three months away from October. It's close enough that you can tip your hat and say, "Okay, it was right again." I don't need to be exactly right on October 16th. In this market, you don't need to be perfect to make a lot of money. But if BTC made a new low in October, I would be very suspicious of whether that's the real bottom, because it would imply deeper technical damage.

Chapter 8: Semiconductors Topping, Rotation into Healthcare and Copper

Alessandro: You mentioned a rotation happening in traditional markets. Can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron – I publicly called the top in early July. The semiconductor index has rallied over 300% from April 2025. Just holding the index gave you a 3x return. People are taking profits, which is perfectly understandable.

But I am not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation is not a bear market. Money coming out of semiconductors is flowing into biotech. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily breakout, and I think it will continue to rally until the end of the year. There might be a pullback to around 180 as a buying opportunity. The industrial sector is also strengthening.

The SPY chart is not bearish. It might pull back to near 7200 short-term, but it remains overall bullish into Q4. I don't see any macro top signals now, at least not before October or November. QQQ is weaker short-term; there might be another flash crash in early August (which has happened in early August for the past few years), but it will rally thereafter.

Alessandro: The memory ETF also gave back half its gains, but the index itself wasn't too affected. Apple is the largest company again. It's crazy.

Krown: Apple's chart looks very good. It has at least another 3 to 6 months of upside. This is how markets work: one sector tops, capital flows to the next, and the index keeps rising. It's been this pattern since 2008. People love calling macro tops, probably because they watched "The Big Short" and idolized those guys. But honestly, going long in these markets is much easier than going short.

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