每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0711-0717）
- Core Viewpoint: The market focus this week is on macroeconomic policies, valuation fluctuations of tech companies, and the seesaw effect between the cryptocurrency market and the stock market. Trump's policies attempt to deeply bind the U.S. stock market with the American national destiny, while the crash in the Korean stock market has driven capital back into the crypto market. Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor industries face profitability verification and structural risks.
- Key Elements:
- Through methods like government equity stakes and opening investment accounts, Trump is transforming anxiety over U.S. national debt into a belief in "American growth," altering traditional approaches to debt resolution.
- The Korean stock market plummeted over 8% in a single day. Regulators are considering measures such as raising margin requirements and limiting daily price limits, but retail capital has already largely flowed back into the crypto market.
- SK Hynix's ADR premium reached 50%, driven by strong demand in the U.S. market but limited initial supply, with arbitrage channels unable to balance prices in the short term.
- SpaceX's stock price fell below its $135 issue price, facing technical challenges and the pressure of lock-up expirations. BIT's securities lending service provides a short-selling tool.
- BlackRock points out that the AI rally is more restrained than the internet bubble, but the risk lies in whether earnings growth can be realized to avoid a bubble burst.
- American Bitcoin holds 8,000 BTC, but whether a reverse stock split can save its stock price depends on liquidity and whether subsequent financing dilutes shares.
- During the Korean stock market crash, approximately $4.1 billion in capital flowed back into the crypto market, validating the "stock market and crypto seesaw" trading logic.
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the massive sea of news to bring you these valuable insights, helping you filter out the noise and leave you with understanding and inspiration.
Macro Situation
US Stocks Are the National Fate; Trump Is Turning America into a Fund
Over the past 18 months, the president, a former real estate developer, has done three things that seem unrelated on the surface: the government directly taking equity in companies, opening investment accounts for newborns, and vying for equity in AI companies. But they all point to the same goal: deeply binding the fate of US stocks with that of the nation.
There are three traditional ways to address the anxiety over US national debt: raising taxes, cutting spending, and inflating away the debt, which means letting prices rise to dilute the real debt value. Trump's solution, however, is to first use the government's powers—subsidies, grants, government contracts, export controls, regulatory authority—as costs and bargaining chips to secure cheap equity stakes in major corporations.
The shell of the US sovereign wealth fund wasn't created under a "clever pretext," but "the bullet has still been fired." The US government has already acquired shares in at least 20 companies for zero upfront cost. OpenAI even voluntarily offered $42.6 billion in shares. This is because AI companies' reliance on national-level infrastructure is structural, not temporary. A government shareholder isn't a cost; it's the ultimate backer.
The Trump account will greatly cultivate a generation's faith in "American growth."
The KOSPI plunged over 8% in a single day this Monday, triggering its seventh circuit breaker of the year. The market pointed fingers directly at single-stock leveraged ETFs. These products amplify the intraday price movements of single stocks, and during periods of sharp volatility, they accelerate price deviations, creating a magnifying effect where they "fuel rises during uptrends and exacerbate falls during downtrends."
The regulator's language has escalated, with the rare admission of "regret." Three paths may be pursued simultaneously: raising margin requirements, implementing price limit boards, and adjusting the upper limit on leverage ratios. However, these might only be temporary fixes rather than addressing the structural root causes of market volatility.
Wolves of Wall Street, Stop Rushing into 2x, 3x SK Hynix
The risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs are emerging, and the South Korean government is getting nervous.
Retail Exodus? South Korean Stocks Tumble 9%, $4.1 Billion Flows Back to Crypto Market
The near week-long plunge in the South Korean stock market is driving retail funds toward the crypto market. The seesaw effect between the South Korean stock market and the crypto market is becoming a continuously validated trading logic.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Why is SK Hynix's US ADR Premium Reaching 50%? A Stress Test of Market Structure
Strong US market demand meets the limited initial supply of SKHY stock, while arbitrage channels cannot immediately create enough new securities or short exposure to keep prices aligned across the two markets. In other words, SK Hynix's fundamentals created the demand, but the structure of the ADR market determines how far prices can deviate from the Seoul market in the short term.
SpaceX Drops Below $135 IPO Price, Is the Bottom Here?
The $135 price is merely the underwriters' pricing, not the market's value floor. SpaceX recently faces challenges to its technological position and trust issues following a launch failure. In terms of capital structure, the 5% circulating supply and the August lock-up expiration are like swords hanging overhead.
The BIT stock lending function allows shorting an equivalent amount of SpaceX stock, providing a hedging tool for holders of the underlying shares.
Related reading: "Stock Price Breaks Below IPO, First Post-IPO Flight Stumbles, What's Next for SpaceX?".
The stock decline is a combination of "selling the news" events and cyclical panic; fundamentals remain unchanged.
Also recommended: "The Nuclear Energy Sector Justin Sun is Bullish On is Quietly Kicking Off an IPO Wave" and "Conversation with Robinhood Founder: The Will of Retail Investors Overrides All 'Smart Money'".
Web3 & AI
AI is not a bubble, but that premise relies on earnings growth materializing.
Prediction Markets
Western markets have integrated prediction markets into the formal financial system, whereas limited participation in Asia is leading to capital outflows, loss of information sovereignty, and a lack of user protection. Asia's current task is not to block these markets, but to think about how to responsibly utilize this data within a formal framework. Avoiding the discussion effectively cedes leadership to foreign entities.
CeFi & DeFi
8,000 BTC Can't Support the Stock Price; Can a Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?
American Bitcoin's core differentiating advantage lies in its ability for large-scale mining and low-cost BTC accumulation. Its core pressure point is whether this model can continue to accumulate without issuing new shares, thus avoiding dilution of existing shareholders.
The upcoming tests are: first, whether the stock's trading volume and liquidity can stabilize; second, whether the company will release detailed documentation on the custody and holding method for the 8,000 BTC; third, whether subsequent financing actions can increase the BTC holdings per share, rather than merely buying assets with newly issued capital.
Staking ETH Earns a Solid $46 Million, So Why is BitMine Still Suffering Massive Losses?
A $92.1 million loss on derivative options completely offset the staking income. Combined with continuously rising asset management costs and aggressive stock issuance, the profit space for existing shareholders has been significantly compressed.
Bitcoin & Ecosystem
Support Under 1%, Will BIP-110 Still Push Bitcoin Towards a Soft Fork?
Ethereum & Scaling
The Success of Robinhood Chain Proves Ethereum is Not Dead
Multi-Chain & Cross-Chain
$930M Daily Volume, Abundant Golden Dog Memes Emerge; How to Play the Robinhood Chain Ecosystem?
NOXA Exits, Who Will Claim the Crown of Token Issuance on Robinhood Chain?
Weekly Hot Topic Refresher
Policy & Macro Markets
Iran claims the US has entered a state of formal war;
US CFTC Chairman supports the CLARITY Act: Legislation is necessary;
US CFTC investigating Trump staff for allegedly using teleprompter insider information for prediction market trading;
Views & Voices
Big Short: Is a 'Lehman Moment' Approaching? (Ed Zitron's long-form piece) OpenAI is bound to collapse, global stock markets face a potential reckoning, now is the perfect time to buy the dip in Hong Kong stocks;
David Sacks responds to Chinese AI model Kimi K3 topping coding benchmarks: US regulatory constraints may be weakening competitiveness;
Serenity: Institutions are repricing humanoid robot businesses; overall Chinese manufacturer capacity could reach 100,000 units by year-end;
JPMorgan: Tencent remains the highest quality compound growth stock in China's internet sector, reiterating an 'Overweight' rating;
Coinbase stock has plunged 30% year-to-date; Wall Street believes it is near the bottom;
Bitwise: RWA and prediction markets hit new highs, crypto is forming a bottom;
a16z: Traditional finance doesn't want DeFi, only the blockchain infrastructure layer;
Institutions, Major Companies & Top Projects
DeepSeek advances IPO preparations, plans to file application by year-end at the earliest;
Coinbase opens registration to Chinese users (Analysis);
Uniswap initiates governance proposal to activate protocol fees on Robinhood Chain and burn UNI;
Base abandons social direction, founder admits strategic failure (Analysis);
Data
Real cost of US military operations against Iran reportedly reaches hundreds of billions of dollars;
CXMT's pre-market valuation on Hyperliquid reaches $540 billion, surpassing Tencent;
Over 6,000 employees receive shares; CXMT IPO set to create mass wealth; CXMT's online offering final allotment rate is approximately 0.4714%; Profit potential for CXMT is estimated between 3,000 RMB and 26,000 RMB per lot;
SpaceX falls below its IPO price of $135 for the first time;
SK Hynix stock continues to rally, up 22%, hitting an all-time high;
Exchange stablecoin reserves rise to $93 billion, with Binance accounting for 57%;
10 days after launch, Robinhood Chain total transactions exceed 38.72 million...
Attached is the portal for the "Weekly Editor's Pick" series. See you next time~
